This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I did well last week, going 3-1, and my only loss was on the coin-flip Packers-Seahawks game. That puts me at 5-3 for the playoffs with three games to go.
This week I feel more strongly about the NFC game than I do the AFC one.
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Titans +7.5 at Chiefs
I made this line seven, so I'm narrowly on the Titans, but it's almost a coin flip. I think Derrick Henry will bludgeon the Chiefs like he has his first two playoff opponents, but also that Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown will get going against a Chiefs pass defense missing rookie safety Juan Thornhill and possibly pass-rushing tackle Chris Jones. In fact, I probably like the over (52.5) in this game (weather permitting) more than either side, as I'm confident the Chiefs will put up points against Tennessee's middle-of-the-road defense no matter what else happens. But largely I expect the Titans to keep up, but fall a little short. Take the points.
Chiefs 31 - 24
Packers +7.5 at 49ers
Normally I don't make much of previous match-ups between teams -- I didn't even bring up the Chiefs-Titans first game -- because they don't mean much. The sample of one-game is too small, and the variance too great. But the first meeting in San Francisco between these two teams had to be one of the 10 most lopsided games of the year. The 49ers won 37-8, despite generating
I did well last week, going 3-1, and my only loss was on the coin-flip Packers-Seahawks game. That puts me at 5-3 for the playoffs with three games to go.
This week I feel more strongly about the NFC game than I do the AFC one.
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Titans +7.5 at Chiefs
I made this line seven, so I'm narrowly on the Titans, but it's almost a coin flip. I think Derrick Henry will bludgeon the Chiefs like he has his first two playoff opponents, but also that Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown will get going against a Chiefs pass defense missing rookie safety Juan Thornhill and possibly pass-rushing tackle Chris Jones. In fact, I probably like the over (52.5) in this game (weather permitting) more than either side, as I'm confident the Chiefs will put up points against Tennessee's middle-of-the-road defense no matter what else happens. But largely I expect the Titans to keep up, but fall a little short. Take the points.
Chiefs 31 - 24
Packers +7.5 at 49ers
Normally I don't make much of previous match-ups between teams -- I didn't even bring up the Chiefs-Titans first game -- because they don't mean much. The sample of one-game is too small, and the variance too great. But the first meeting in San Francisco between these two teams had to be one of the 10 most lopsided games of the year. The 49ers won 37-8, despite generating only one turnover and having more penalties and penalty yardage against, i.e., this wasn't a game of fluky bounces but of total dominance. The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers to 104 passing yards on 33 attempts (3.2 YPA) and sacked him five times for 38 yards on top of that, while Jimmy Garoppolo had 253 yards passing on only 20 attempts (minus 26 sack yards.)
It's only one game, but small samples deserve more weight when their magnitude is large. Moreover, the 49ers defense is healthier than it has been all season, they're at home and coming off an easy wipe-out of the Vikings, while the Packers defense was on the field for most of the second half, nearly blowing a big lead to the Seahawks and traveling across the country.
On offense, Aaron Rodgers has but two weapons the defense has to worry about -- Davante Adams, who played great against the Seahawks, and Aaron Jones. No one else on the team does much damage, and in fact the other receivers and tight end Jimmy Graham were liabilities for most of the year. The Niners have a three-headed monster of sprinter-speed backs, running behind a good line in a hard-to-read offensive scheme, and three different passing game weapons, all capable of making plays down the field. And tight end George Kittle is one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the league, both for his work as a receiver and blocker.
Bottom line, the Packers had a nice year, winning close games and handling the teams they were supposed to handle, but they're up against a complete team on the road, and I don't think it'll be close. Lay the wood.
49ers 37 - 17
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Last week, I went 3-1 in the Divisional Round, won my best bet (the Chiefs) to go 5-3 for the playoffs (1-1 on best bets). I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.
