DraftKings College Football: Week Zero Main Slate

Week Zero is here and that means college football DFS is back. Our long national nightmare is over. We're treated to a three-game main slate with some interesting matchups. Two are expected to have multi-score differentials according to the Vegas lines with UCLA favored by upwards of 18.0 points over Hawaii and Fresno State giving 27.5 points to Connecticut as the Huskies return from sabbatical. Those games also feature the highest totals with UCLA-Hawaii checking in at 68.5 and Fresno State-UConn at 63.0. The game expected to be the most competitive is in Champaign with Illinois hosting Nebraska, where the traveling Huskers are favored by a touchdown at most books. 

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Matchup Info

Last year's stats are last year's stats so there's only so much we can read into this table. However, certain things are eye-catching. Illinois' run defense stands out as the worst on the slate, but the Illini rank 94th in returning production according to ESPN's Bill Connelly, so maybe it's a good thing they're starting fresh on that side of the ball in addition to having new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters from Mizzou. 

Still, I'm banking on Nebraska -- who ran the ball at the 33rd highest rate in FBS last season -- to attack on the ground. Nebraska was so anemic through the air last year (6.6 YPA) and has such an unproven group of pass-catchers that running the ball effectively will be the path to covering the spread. The question is: who is going to be toting the rock? More on that later. 

Fresno State was soft against the run last year as well, but I highly doubt Connecticut's line can generate enough push to get anything going in the run game. That, plus the Huskies will likely be playing from behind for 55+ minutes. 

As for UCLA-Hawaii, there are some interesting nuggets to consider. UCLA's defense, on paper, looks gettable, especially through the air. That should steer us towards the Hawaii passing game, right? To quote Lee Corso, "not so fast, my friend." UCLA has the eighth-most returning production on defense in the nation. This isn't to say I'm fading Hawaii's passing game. Hawaii will be playing from behind and still throws it over half the time. But there's a chance UCLA's experience on defense will stymie the Rainbow Warriors' passing attack enough to keep it from its upper-range outcome. 

On the flipside, Hawaii coughed up 211.7 rushing yards and 5.0 YPC to its opponents last season. With UCLA's mobile quarterback and stable of strong runners, the Bruin run game could take over this game. 

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

This is a small slate so our options are obviously limited. On top of that, Connecticut is likely an offense to avoid for the most part, and it could rotate its quarterbacks. That takes Jack Zergiotis and Steven Krajewski off the table for me, leaving us with five viable QB options.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($8,500) UCLA vs. Hawaii

DTR checks in with the second-highest salary among quarterbacks but he may be my favorite overall play at the position. He offers rushing upside that few others do on this slate, plus it's a favorable matchup. And unlike Jake Haener, Thompson-Robinson has a good chance of playing the entire game. Thompson-Robinson is also prolific as a passer; he completed 65 percent of his passes last season at 8.1 YPA with 12 touchdowns against just four picks. He loses Demetric Felton but still has a security blanked it Kyle Philips along with one of the top tight ends in the nation in Greg Dulcich. UCLA has an implied total of 42.75 and the game should be more competitive than the one in Fresno, so getting the player at the helm of the Bruin offense is a good place to start your build. 

Chevan Cordeiro ($7,500) Hawaii at UCLA

Cordeiro has several elements working in his favor this week. Hawaii is 17.5-point dogs, so there's a good chance that the offense flows through his arm for much of the game. And when plays break down, Cordeiro has the mobility (483 rushing yards, seven touchdowns in nine games) to make things happen and pick up cheap yards to help his bottom line. Cordeiro also has the added benefit of getting easy completions to X-factor Calvin Turner, too. Of the non-favored quarterbacks. Cordeiro holds the best chances of returning value.

Others To Consider

Adrian Martinez ($6,800) at Illinois

Martinez has been on the scene long enough to where it's established he's a shaky passer. Losing Wan'Dale Robinson won't help with that this season, but if nothing else, Martinez can produce on the ground. As mentioned earlier, Illinois can be gotten in the run game and Martinez figures to factor heavily in that facet of the game. It may not be a pretty passing stat line from Martinez, but if he can push into double digits in carries, he can return value. An added bonus is that Martinez likely projects for low roster percentage compared to Haener, Thompson-Robinson, and Corderio, so lineups with Martinez can gain some leverage if he produces. 

Running Back

Calvin Turner ($6,400) Hawaii at UCLA

DraftKings' PPR scoring takes an already-solid projection for Turner to another level. Listed as a running back, Turner plays all over in the Hawaii offense and is a good bet to post a diverse box score. Turner tied for the team lead in targets (50) and reeled in 33 of those for 546 yards and six touchdowns. When you can get that type of pass-catching production from a player listed at running back, you go for it. Turner is also productive as a runner, having averaged 5.5 YPC in 2020. Look for Turner to get the most usage on the Hawaii offense Saturday. 

Sevion Morrison ($3,000) Nebraska at Illinois

Nebraska has been largely mum on who will lead its backfield this season with Dedrick Mills gone. Markese Stepp is an interesting transfer from USC, but the word out of Lincoln is that Morrison has a good chance at seeing a high share of the work this weekend and beyond. Morrison was one of Nebraska's highest-rated recruits in the 2020 class but injuries kept him off the field as a freshman. Now healthy, Morrison has impressed the coaching staff this fall and should be featured Saturday. Gabe Ervin ($4,100) is also expected to have a role, so a workload split could be incoming. The hope is that Nebraska sticks to the ground game enough to have both backs produce alongside Martinez. And with Illinois' woes against the run, 10-12 carries for Morrison should be enough for him to return value at min-salary. 

Ronnie Rivers ($7,800) Fresno State vs. Connecticut

Rivers may be the most important running back on the entire slate. He checks in with the highest salary at $7,800 and should be the most productive back on a per-touch basis. The concern is with the game flow. Fresno State is favored by nearly four touchdowns and has a matchup against Oregon on tap for Week 1, so Rivers is at risk of getting pulled by halftime if the Bulldogs take care of business. The question then becomes, will Rivers do enough on a reduced workload to return value? The answer is likely still yes, even if this won't be one of his ceiling games. Rivers can still do damage in the passing game (5.5 Tar/G in 2020) and is an explosive runner (5.2 YPC) who gets to face what could be the worst defense in college football this season. If you're doing multiple entries, consider leaving Rivers out of a couple of them just in case he sees limited work. But if you're sticking to one lineup, Rivers is still a solid bet. 

Zach Charbonnet ($5,300) UCLA vs. Hawaii

Brittain Brown checks in with the higher salary and has more experience in the UCLA offense, but Charbonnet is the most talented player in the Bruin backfield. Charbonnet, a former five-star recruit who started his career at Michigan, comes to UCLA after averaging 5.1 YPC and rushing for 12 touchdowns in 18 games for the Wolverines. UCLA should be leading for most of this one, so look for the run game to be featured. Charbonnet can inflict serious damage on this Hawaii defense. At $5,300, Charbonnet is a strong mid-tier option on the board for this slate. 

Wide Receiver

Fresno State Receivers

As we've established, Fresno State is expected to hang the most points on the board Saturday. What do we do with that information? Well, we can expect a larger cast than usual to contribute. Last season, Jalen Cropper paced the pass catchers with 37 grabs for 520 yards and five touchdowns. Understandably, he's the highest salaried Fresno State receiver. Below is how the Fresno State target distribution shook out last year.

Now, Josh Kelly ($4,400) is listed as a starter along with Keric Wheatfall ($5,500) and Cropper. Tight end Juan Rodriguez ($4,100) is also set to start. Then there's Washington transfer Ty Jones ($3,900) who is a bit of an unknown. My approach here is to fade some of the higher salaried options in this group and try to strike gold with one of the reserves as they'll get more chances Saturday than they will most weeks. Kelly and Jones are particularly intriguing to me from that tier, and I will have some Wheatfall exposure as well.

Greg Dulcich ($6,000) UCLA UCLA vs. Hawaii

Tight ends are usually removed from my thought process unless they're either a buzzy min-priced option or a legitimate staple in a given offense. Dulcich is the latter, having commanded a 20.9 percent target share that was among the best in college football. He caught 26 passes for 517 yards and five touchdowns, showing unique big-play ability for his position. Look for him to be one of the primary targets for Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Saturday. 

Isaiah Williams ($5,000) Illinois vs. Nebraska

Williams is an interesting case.  A former big-time recruit for the Illini at quarterback, Williams has now made the switch to receiver. With Josh Imatorbhebhe gone to the NFL, so too are 22.6 percent of last year's targets. Williams has shown the athleticism to be a playmaker, having rushed for 389 yards with a pair of 100-yard games last season. There's no guarantee he'll see a heavy target volume in his first game at receiver, but Illinois figures to get him the ball any way it can. And with the ball in his hands, he's a threat to go the distance. Williams is on the GPP radar for this week. 

Others to Consider

Samori Toure ($4,900) Nebraska at Illinois

Wan'Dale Robinson soaked up a whopping 30 percent of the targets in this offense last season and is now at Kentucky. That's a lot of targets to replace and none of the other Nebraska pass catchers did enough to truly lock in a starting spot for this year based off their production. That's a good thing for Toure, a transfer from Montana who checks in at 6-foot-3 with impressive ball skills. He's expected to be a fixture in the Nebraska passing game. Again, Nebraska might not light it up through the air Saturday, but a good chunk of what it does in the pass game could be channeled through Toure.