This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Ole Miss vs. LSU
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We have gotten to Week 7 of the college football season, and things are beginning to heat up. Conference play is in full swing and the SEC had quite the shakeup these last few weeks. Last week, we saw the mighty fall as top-5 Alabama and Tennessee lost to unranked Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Two weeks ago, Ole Miss was sitting at number six in the country before being toppled by unranked Kentucky. Those things are behind us now, and these two teams come in with one loss in a top-15 matchup that could set up to send one team on a path to the 12-team playoff and the other to the outside looking in.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); LSU +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Ole Miss -160 (FanDuel Sportsbook); LSU +140 (ESPNBet)
Total: Over 62 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 62.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Ole Miss vs. LSU Betting Picks for Week 7
Ole Miss and LSU have a long-standing history with each other, with 111 matchups dating back to 1894; LSU is 65-42-4 in the history of the rivalry. The home team has won the last four games of this matchup, before which LSU won five straight starting in 2016. However, the metrics here heavily favor the road team, Ole Miss. Ole Miss currently sits in the top 10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) offensively and defensively. Offensively, they rank fourth in both Success Rate/Rush and Success Rate/Dropback while also ranking second in defensive Success Rate/Rush and seventh in defensive Success Rate/Dropback. Meanwhile, LSU ranks 12th in Offensive EPA and 55th in Defensive EPA, while their offensive Success Rate/Rush ranks 62nd and 10th in Success Rate/Dropback. On the other side of the ball, they rank 31st in Success Rate/Rush and 118th in Success Rate/Dropback.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Expert Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ole Miss vs. LSU Predictions for Week 7
Despite the current home winning streak in this matchup, I think Ole Miss bucks the trend here and comes out with a victory. The Ole Miss defense is anchored by a strong secondary featuring star corner Trey Amos, who has six passes defended and two interceptions so far on the season, along with a defensive front that contains six players with 1.5 or more sacks. This Ole Miss defense should make things very difficult for LSU and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is off to an incredible start to the season with 2,100 yards, 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. That said, star wideout Tre Harris is listed as questionable, so his status should be monitored leading up to the contest. With the success of Dart so far to this point of the season and a poor LSU passing defense, it may be hard for LSU to get stops, especially with the infrequency in which Dart has given the ball to the other team. I think defense is the big separator in this one, as both teams have good offenses led by great quarterbacks.
Ole Miss 34 - LSU 27
