College Football Picks: CFB Week 10 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on October 31, 2024

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Chris' Picks

Another losing week, thanks to a bad beat. SMU takes a double-digit lead and proceeds to commit six turnovers, four on consecutive possessions.

I'm going to Chalk City this week with five favorites, which is always how my brain works. Maybe that gets me back into the winning column as I've toyed with underdogs and point totals this season more than usual. Otherwise, I'm just throwing words on your screen, and we hope to guess right.

South Florida (-2) at Florida Atlantic

When USF was challenging Alabama through three quarters and Miami through 1.5, what would you have imagined this spread to be? 14 points, maybe more? I fully recognize USF isn't the same team now; their defense has been gashed repeatedly, and the offense has been non existent with Byrum Brown hurt. But I think we can give them a slight pass; they had a gauntlet of a schedule with 'Bama, Miami, Tulane and Memphis. Brown hasn't been ruled out for Saturday, which would obviously be a huge boost. But FAU just isn't good, beating Wagner and FIU while losing to UNT and UTSA. Get in early on the chance Brown is available, as this will soar upward if he's cleared. But I don't think he's needed.

Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State

I jump around writing this column, but try to keep these picks in order as they're listed in our odds page, regardless of start time. This was my fifth selection despite being listed second, which speaks to a lack of confidence. It's a fully confident pick if Drew Allar doesn't play, but the assumption is he will, or this spread is likely (-6.5) or higher. I'm simply not buying Penn State. They've played nobody, allowed 30 points at Southern Cal, and 27 points to Bowling Green. Both coaches have a history of losing big games, but with the Buckeyes having already lost to Oregon, they have to have this one, while Penn State has more margin for error.

North Carolina State -9.5 vs. Stanford

Backing the Wolfpack here in near a must-win game for bowl eligibility, and they are the better of two evils. Neither has been impressive, but NCST went to Cal and escaped and now get a West Coast team traveling east for a noon kickoff. The Wolfpack are allowing 31.1 ppg, but it's marginally improved to 24.5 ppg over the last four. Stanford is allowing 31.5 ppg, but that's risen to 32.4 in conference play. Those averages alone put this at an eight-point margin. Travel and home field give us the extra boost as Wolfpack QB C.J. Bailey continues his growth, having thrown for two touchdowns in three straight and 300+ in two straight.

Clemson (-10.5) vs. Louisville

The Cardinals have been continually overvalued by the books, as evidenced by their five-game losing streak against the spread. Yes, they scored a bunch of points against Miami; they didn't cover. Nor did they against Notre Dame, SMU, UVA or Boston College. This number has crept up during the week, but I'd cautiously feel okay if it gets as high as (-13.5). Louisville has allowed 711 yards rushing over the last four games, I have no clue how they'll slow down Phil Mafah who is bullying people of late. And Cade Klubnik is playing at an elite level, giving Clemson offensive balance. Further, I'd argue this is the best defense Louisville has faced. One team is ascending; one is middling.

Texas A&M (-2.5) at South Carolina

Similar to riding against UNC earlier, if it's ain't broke, don't fix it and back the Aggies again. I went to USC, and I know full well what a sauced up crowed at night looks like in Williams-Brice Stadium. It doesn't matter when you're offense isn't capable. The Gamecocks are off a bye and have an elite defense, so this will be tight and low-scoring. But when the defenses are equal (ish), and one side has the superior offense and only needs to win by three, it feels like a spot to pounce. A&M could be due a letdown, or they're surging towards the SEC Championship game and a playoff appearance. I'm backing the latter.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 20-23-2

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Greg's Picks

I'm officially off the losing train after a 3-2 week. It could have been better than 3-2 after winning three of my first four, but any ticket off this train is fine with me.

The week got off to a bad start with the under on the Notre Dame game. I thought we'd see a methodical game, but Notre Dame had other ideas. The Fighting Irish were unstoppable on offense and nearly took care of the over by themselves. Things turned around with the under on the Indiana game. This didn't look great early on, but Indiana put the clamps down on defense in the 2nd half. Arkansas was up next, and the Hogs steamrolled Mississippi State. Alabama rebounded well against a Missouri team that has underperformed all season. The final pick was the over on the Miami game, and while Miami did its part, FSU was punchless on offense. I mentioned that there was a scenario where Miami would take advantage of a bad FSU team, and that's what happened. I should have leaned into that angle a bit more.

Duke (+20.5) at Miami

As I mentioned earlier, I had the over in the Miami game this past week, so I watched quite a bit of that game. Miami was jacked up for that game as it was against its biggest rival in FSU. This week, Duke comes to town, and the Hurricanes are nearly three-TD favorites. This is going to be a tough spot to bring their "A" game. Duke is 6-2 on the season, but the Blue Devils aren't going to grab any added attention. They do have a solid pass defense, however, which will go a long way in slowing down the Hurricane offense. On the other side, while Miami's defense played well this past week, it was up against one of the worst offenses in the country. While Duke doesn't have a high-powered offense, it's certainly better than FSU's.

Under 46.5 Purdue vs. Northwestern

It's the movable objects vs. the resistible forces here. Which will win out? You might have noticed that I took that common phrase and made it plural because, in this case, we've got several units that are terrible. Purdue's passing and rushing defense is terrible, but so are Northwestern's rushing and passing units. Purdue can't pass, and Northwestern can't defend the pass. The only battle that's worth watching is Purdue's rushing offense against the 'Cats rush defense. There's a chance that the defense on each side loses every battle, but I have a feeling that we're looking at a couple of really bad offenses against some normally bad defenses, in which case, the defense will win out more often.

Under 45 Ohio State at Penn State

Most years, both of these teams bring in strong offenses and defenses, and it's tough to tell which units are actually better. This year, however, I think we have enough evidence that both teams are led by the defenses. The numbers back this up as each team brings a top-10 defense into this matchup, while the offenses are closer to the top-30. In addition to the stingy defenses, Penn State QB Drew Allar might miss this game, which would not only stall the offense but would likely change the approach of the Nittany Lions. In other words, without its starting QB, I could see Penn State try to make this a slog and eat clock while on offense. As for Ohio State, there's no statement necessary here; the Buckeyes simply need to figure out how to get a win this weekend.

Oregon (-15) at Michigan

This game comes down to exactly one thing – will Oregon be excited to play Michigan? If the Ducks come ready, there is nothing Michigan can do to stop them. If not, then this could get a little messy. My faith in Oregon is two-fold in this department. They were in a similar spot two weeks ago at Purdue as a huge favorite just a week after the big win over Ohio State, and they took care of business, even if they were a little sleepy. The other factor here is even though Michigan is down this year, the Wolverines are still the defending champ, and I'm guessing that the Ducks want to make a statement here. If the Duck's offense is humming, Michigan has no chance to keep up. Turnovers are the only hope for Michigan this week.

Over 50.5 Florida State vs. North Carolina

We're going to try this one more time. I know, I just got done bashing FSU's offense, but while Miami's defense has given up a lot of points this season, it's still better than what North Carolina brings to the table. In addition, the intensity level won't be nearly what it was last week, which should give the Seminoles a chance to make some progress on offense this week. On the other side, the Tar Heels have plenty of offense and should have no trouble scoring plenty of points. Unlike this past week, I'm expecting more than 14 points for FSU, and if that's the case, then I think we can get over the number here.

Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 20-25-0

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Jeff's Picks

My single loss was shocking (Houston), but I'm more than happy to walk away from the week with a 4-1 record as my season record continues to go north of 50 percent. Some of my picks made for a good sweat, especially with Baylor, who put it away in the final moments. I have a good feeling about my picks this week, and we'll begin by going back to the well with a bet I've used for the past three weeks.

Clemson 1H (-6.5) vs. Louisville

I'm going to run this bet for a third consecutive time. I'm 1-1 with taking Clemson in the first half, but Louisville is a stronger second-half team, and Clemson will thrive in a night game at Death Valley. Cade Klubnik and Tyler Shough make for an interesting quarterback duel, and it could get close down the stretch. A spread of less than a touchdown through two quarters works perfectly fine for me.

Texas A&M (-2.5) @ South Carolina

Marcel Reed is the answer for the Aggies. Just ignore this bet if Conner Weigman starts instead, but if they do the smart thing and stick with Reed, this will be an easy line to cover. South Carolina's defensive front is their best asset, but the Aggies are also strong on defense and will force them into some tough third-down situations. The Aggies are SEC title contenders with the right formula, and I believe Reed is the missing spot in the equation.

Arizona State (-3) @ Oklahoma State

This game is a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Sun Devils will get Sam Leavitt back and have one of the best running backs in the nation in Cam Skattebo. Oklahoma State is coming off two tough losses and their defense has been unable to make many stops. They are also going back to Alan Bowman this week, and his limitations are well-documented. ASU will be able to key in on Ollie Gordon and take care of business.

OVER 45.5 Minnesota @ Illinois

At first glance, I was ready to take Illinois and take the points as a home underdog, but I think this is a smarter play overall. Both of these teams can cook up a lot of points, and the Gophers have put up a fight in every game. Illinois is coming off of a tough loss, but they'll be revitalized at home. Luke Altmyer and Max Brosmer will be another excellent quarterback duel on this slate, and I expect both teams to get vertical quickly behind two strong arms. The total here is just too low for me.

Vanderbilt (+7) @ Auburn

I think this is another chance for Diego Pavia and company to pull off an upset. They were unable to shock the world against Texas, but they still have something to prove. Auburn's offense is like Swiss cheese - a lot of holes. Payton Thorne makes at least one big mistake in every game, and to underestimate the Commodores will be a big mistake for Auburn's defense. I think Pavia has a field day here and wins outright.

Last Week: 4-1-0

Season: 24-21-0

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