This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
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A Big 12 vs. SEC battle as the Texas Tech Red Raiders battle the Arkansas Razorbacks in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee. Texas Tech enters with an 8-4 record, while Arkansas comes in at 6-6.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas AutoZone Liberty Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Texas Tech -2.5 ( DraftKings Sportsbook), Texas Tech +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.5 (ESPN Bet), Under 52.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas Tech -134 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Arkansas +124 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line opened at Arkansas -2.5 and has since flipped in favor of the Red Raiders. The total has dropped considerably since it opened, and we'll get into that in a bit.
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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas AutoZone Liberty Bowl Betting Picks
Bowl season sure has changed over the past decade. The bowl games have always been different than the regular season in that we often had matchups that we didn't see all that often and most teams were coming off extra long breaks. But with the transfer portal in play now, it's almost as if we get teams that don't resemble their regular season versions of themselves, and unfortunately, we're getting hit pretty hard in this game.
Let's start with the opt-outs; because of all the factors that go into handicapping a bowl game, this is now, by far, the biggest factor. As mentioned, both teams have lost players, but the Red Raiders look to have suffered more damage. Texas Tech lost their top WR in Josh Kelly as well as two starting OL. As if that wasn't bad enough, QB Behren Morton is out due to injury.
Arkansas did not come out unscathed however, and the Hogs will be without at least five starters, including its top WR Andrew Armstrong and two OL starters. The defense got hit as well, losing a couple starters including their best pass rusher Landon Jackson.
Okay, so with the opt-outs, these teams aren't going to be exactly the same, but we can still look at the numbers from the season to get an idea of how this game might play out. One thing that sticks out is the inability of either team to stop the pass. Texas Tech ranked 108th in passing yards allowed and Arkansas ranked 133rd. This spells trouble for both teams as the strength of each offense is the passing attack.
If both teams were at full strength, this would be a great spot for the over, but removing a starting QB from the equation makes things a little more difficult to predict. The absence of Morton, as well as several players from the Arkansas offense, is likely the main driver knocking the total down. It's really too bad because this set up as a great watch if both teams lined up at full strength. With that said, we should still see plenty of fireworks as neither defense fared well this season, and both teams have had extra time to prepare their new-look offenses.
Though we will miss plenty of firepower, the lack of defense on both sides should result in a decent amount of points scored. And with the total dropping like a rock, there is an opportunity here to get an easy win on the over. In addition, Arkansas still has its dynamic QB Taylen Green and as of this writing, star RB Tahj Brooks is planning to play for Texas Tech.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Expert Pick: Over 51.5 (ESPN Bet)
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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas AutoZone Liberty Bowl Predictions
It's tough to say how this game will play out with all the new pieces. Considering that neither team can stop the pass, I would imagine that both teams will come out gunning. It might take Texas Tech some time to get into a groove on offense, but with Tahj Brooks as a safety blanket, I don't expect the Red Raiders to struggle for too long. Arkansas should be fine out of the gate. Yes, the Hogs are down a few skill players, but Green can do a lot by himself, so perhaps we'll see him use his legs early.
Arkansas should get out to a lead, and once the Red Raiders find their groove, we could have some nice back-and-forth action in the second half.
