This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're set for a two-game Emirates NBA Cup Semifinals slate Saturday, one that kicks off earlier than usual for a main slate at 4:30 p.m. ET. We're granted the benefit of a very light injury report in terms of potential short-term absences, which keeps our compact player pool as viable as possible. Differentiation with some mid-salary and value plays that pay off is usually the key to achieving success on these small slates, so let's dive into the big picture further.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, 12/14 @ 11:00 a.m. EST:
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (-4) (O/U: 231.5)
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) (O/U: 216.0)
We unsurprisingly have narrow spreads in both games, but there is a stark contrast in projected totals and game environments. The Hawks-Bucks matchup is unsurprisingly expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, especially given Atlanta's typical pace and questionable defense. The opposite is true with two strong defensive squads that know each other well in the Rockets and Thunder facing off in the prime-time battle, even with plenty of offensive talent on either side.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Jalen Johnson, ATL (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
If Johnson were unable to suit up, Larry Nance would likely enter the starting five, and the likes of Trae Young and De'Andre Hunter would stand to be big beneficiaries in terms of usage bumps based on this season's numbers when Johnson has been off the floor.
Other notable injuries:
Chet Holmgren, OKC (hip): OUT
Dillon Brooks, HOU (illness): QUESTIONABLE
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (knee): PROBABLE
Trae Young, ATL (Achilles): PROBABLE
De'Andre Hunter, ATL (knee): PROBABLE
Khris Middleton, MIL (ankle): PROBABLE
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL (quadriceps): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,100).
Giannis has eclipsed 50 FD points in three of his last four games, including tallies of 62.2 and 58.9 FD points in his last two. He scored 50.7 against the Hawks across 36 minutes four games ago in his first meeting of the season with them, and Antetokounmpo would be at even more of an advantage if Johnson were to sit out for Atlanta.
Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off 66.1 FD points over 37 minutes against the Mavericks on Tuesday to help lead OKC into the semifinals. Prior to that game, he'd posted 50 to 62.7 FD points in nine prior games, including 53.1 over 36 minutes against Houston on Dec. 1.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Trae Young, ATL ($9,200)
Young scored 44.5 FD points against the Knicks on Wednesday to push the Hawks into this semifinal game and should be very popular on such a small slate.
Jalen Johnson, ATL ($9,100)
If Johnson is confirmed available, he should be highly rostered given he just scored 58.5 FD points against the Knicks last time out and 52.1 FD points against these same Bucks on Dec. 4.
Jalen Williams, OKC ($9,000)
Williams is averaging 43.1 FD points per game for the season and put up 43.5 against the Rockets on Dec. 1.
Alperen Sengun, HOU ($8,900)
Sengun should be even more popular than usual given how scarce quality centers are on a two-game slate, and he comes in having eclipsed 51 FD points in four of his last seven games, including 52.3 against the Thunder on Dec. 1.
Damian Lillard, MIL ($8,700)
Lillard scored 35.3 FD points against the Hawks on Dec. 4 and is averaging 42.8 FD points per contest for the season, which should keep him highly rostered at his salary.
Key Values
Onyeka Okongwu, ATL at MIL ($5,600)
I'm also suggesting the player Okongwu backs up, Clint Capela, in the Also Consider section below at $200 less in salary, but I give the former the slight edge in fantasy appeal based on recent body of work. Okongwu is actually outpacing Capela in minutes on most nights these days, and he checks in averaging 27.9 FD points over his last eight games while shooting 60.6 percent overall. The 2020 first-round pick put up 30.7 FD points over 24 minutes against the Bucks on Dec. 4 as well, and he's already eclipsed 30 FD points on seven occasions in 24 games despite not yet drawing a start. Milwaukee is also allowing 53.3 FD points per game to centers over the last seven games, a bump up from their usual stingy ways against the position.
Brook Lopez, MIL vs. ATL ($5,100)
Speaking of the Bucks' center position, Lopez makes for an interesting and albeit somewhat risky tournament-only option due to a significant salary decrease. The big man has earned it with some lackluster play over his last three games, averaging just 8.9 FD points per contest in that span. However, Lopez had averaged a starkly different 37.6 FD points in the 10 games prior to that stretch, shooting 58.1 percent, including 49.0 percent from distance. Included in that sample was a tally of 27.2 FD points against the Hawks on Dec. 4, and Atlanta comes in allowing the third-most FD points per game to centers in the last seven games (62.1).
Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. HOU ($5,000)
Dort has been a steady complementary component of the Thunder attack of late, averaging 24.6 FD points across his last five games. That includes a 27.6 FD-point showing against the Rockets on Dec. 1. Dort's shooting inefficiency does lead to some fluctuations in his offensive contributions, but he's also been a reliable supplier of steals and blocks that have helped augment his fantasy production. Given his very reasonable salary, Dort could make for a viable value play that opens up key salary cap dollars for you elsewhere.
ALSO CONSIDER: Amen Thompson, HOU at OKC ($6,300); Clint Capela, ATL at MIL ($5,400)
