This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Two teams are in a win-or-go-home situation Sunday, with both the 76ers and Nets down 3-0. With their backs against the wall, I'll be picking both teams to go over their expected point total. Below, I outline a pick for each contest.
Stats are via NBA.com, Basketball Reference, and Cleaning The Glass; Odds are as accurate as 3:05 p.m. CT Saturday on PointsBet.
76ers vs. 
Celtics (-8.0); 213.0
The Pick: 76ers over 102.5 (-115)
Public perception and confidence in the 76ers is, and should be, at an all-time low. But I think they can at least recover their shooting touch enough to score 103 points in a win-or-go-home Game 4. While it's discouraging that they have the second-worst shot selection in the playoffs (51.8 location effective field goal percentage), they should be scoring more points, as their actual effective field-goal percentage is 7.8% lower than expected. Notably, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson are shooting only a combined 60-for-150 from the field, with Harris an unbelievable 0-for-10 from deep. Even with their playoff-worst efficiency from the field, Philly is still scoring 98.7 points per game in the series. A slight bump should allow them to hit 103.
Mavericks vs. 
Clippers (-8.5); 231.5
The Pick: If Doncic plays, Mavericks +8.5 (-110). If not, Mavericks under 111.5 (-115)
Doncic suffered a significant ankle injury during Game 3, which left him noticeably limping. He's expected to be a game-time call for Game 4, so there's no reason to rush into placing a bet on this game. That said, if he's in, I'm alright with banking on him being healthy enough to keep this game within 8.5 points. Through three games, the Clippers have scored just three more total points than the Mavericks. One concern is that Dallas has a 4.6% higher effective field-goal percentage than expected based on shot location, but I'm not sure that's enough to warrant such a big spread. If Doncic is out, I can't trust Dallas to score 112 points, even with the series being played a relatively high pace (102.3).
Nets vs. 
Raptors (-13.0); 217.0
The Pick: Nets over 102.0 (-115)
I can't say I advocate betting on this mess of a series, but Brooklyn has still managed to score 100.3 points per game despite their leading field-goal shooters -- Caris LeVert, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Garrett Temple -- shooting a combined 47-for-137 from the field. While it wouldn't be surprising if Toronto's smothering defense kept them in check in what will likely be the final game of the series, I'd at least consider banking on some positive regression for Brooklyn's key players. And if things quickly get out of hand, coach Nick Nurse may finally sit his regulars down the stretch, which is something he hasn't really done in this series.
Nuggets vs. 
Jazz (-3.0); 216.0
The Pick: Jazz under 109.5 (-115)
Make no mistake, Denver is awful defensively. In regular-season games since the new year, they allowed 115.2 points per 100 possessions (sixth worst). However, this series is being played at a snail's pace (90.4) and what Utah is doing offensively cannot be kept up for long. They're boasting a 132.9 offensive rating -- Dallas has the best offense in NBA history at 116.7 -- and have an effective field-goal percentage 8.4% higher than expected based on shot location. Specifically, I don't trust Donovan Mitchell to continue shooting 57%/50%/96% when he was a 45%/37%/86% shooter during the regular season. At the time of writing, there isn't a prop bet for his points, but that might be a better under to consider, especially since Mike Conley is back and can relieve Mitchell of some usage.
