This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's 12-game slate is massive in size, but the strategic approach is relatively simple. There are only a few games worth targeting, and a few stars that you simply can't fade tonight.
Before I elaborate on that point, let's first take a look at the injury landscape. This is where you're going to find the value plays you'll need to spend up.
OUT:Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle. This game has all the good stuff – a 233 O/U, a somewhat deceiving point spread, and a lot of places to pivot. With these two guys out, it stands to reason that Anthony Davis ($11,400) and Jrue Holiday ($8,600) will need to shoulder a bigger load, but we should dig deeper to find cheaper opportunities. E'Twaun Moore ($4,600) and Darius Miller ($3,600) are who I'd be looking at for value in the spot. While Solomon Hill took advantage with Randle out, Miller saw 30-plus minutes, which is a trend that will eventually give him a larger role in Wednesday's matchup.
OUT: A lot of Raptors. Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas are both out, as is Serge Ibaka. Fred VanVleet ($4,900) and Pascal Siakam will both play. Without Lowry, I like VanVleet's chances for an extended run. There's really nowhere to go that's particularly sensible aside from slotting in Kawhi Leonard ($9,200) and calling it a day, but I think Danny Green ($4,600) carries the best floor out of the value group.
OUT:Zach LaVine – The pendulum has finally swung Lauri Markannen's ($7,400) way in LaVine's absence, and Kris Dunn ($6,300) has also made some noise in this game script. While both might carry steep price tags against the Nets, it's a game I'd take the over on with some confidence. It should be a close one with a higher pace than what these two teams usually produce.
Here are some individual players that are out, along with their pivots.
Jeff Teague, OUT: Still no question here -- Derrick Rose ($6,700) is your guy. Start him with confidence.
Malcolm Brogdon, QUESTIONABLE: Should Brogdon sit out again, the value of this game should make pivoting to his replacement a priority. The only problem is that it could be Pat Connaughton ($3,700) or Tony Snell ($3,300) who sees the most significant bump. My money will be on Connaughton, but I can't dispute Snell as an alternate play here.
That's a lot of value to swallow. In summary, the big takeaways are that you should draw liberally from the players mentioned above because I'll be asking you to field three elites tonight. It's a tall order, but their value is so straightforward, it's difficult to go any other way. Even though it's a huge slate, I'm not going to get too fancy here. It's meat and potatoes time.
As usual, I'll take three at each position and try to give you selections at high, median, and low salary points.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC at SAC ($11,000): Here's where the spending begins! This is another game I like. Vegas has it clocking in at a 234 O/U, and all it takes is a cursory glance to see how decisively Westbrook has played against the Kings. In two games, he's averaged a whopping 60.9 DKFP against Sacramento, and his recent five-game average of 52 DKFP per game is also no joke. Of all the elites I'll suggest, Westbrook is a definite lock for me.
Buddy Hield, SAC vs. OKC ($6,200): Hield's ceiling isn't as high as I'd like, but he's averaged a solid 30.9 against the Thunder over two games, and he's always a rebound or assist away from getting close to 40 DKFP on any given night. The fast pace gives me a bit more confidence than players at a similar price point.
Marcus Smart, BOS vs. PHO ($4,900): This game sets up great for Smart, who usually still sees 30 minutes or more in lopsided wins. Granted, he didn't do much against the Suns in their last game, but the flow in Boston was drastically different. I'm not discounting any of the other Celtics, but at $4,900 he's a little too strong to pass up.
Other guards to consider:Kemba Walker, CHA vs. CLE ($8,400), J.J. Redick, PHI vs. NY ($5,100), Tim Frazier, NO at MIL ($4,700)
FORWARDS
Blake Griffin, DET at MIN ($9,400): Who am I kidding? Giannis ($11,100) and Kevin Durant ($,9400) are both excellent places to spend up, and any of these three could round out the suggest three-stud play I'm endorsing tonight, but Griffin has been scary good of late, averaging almost 50 DKFP over the past four games. I also have a well-documented bias against Karl-Anthony Towns' ability to play defense in marquee matchups, and he will have his hands full with Andre Drummond. I don't think Griffin will be too worried about Taj Gibson, either.
Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. PHO ($6,400): There's no other way to say it – Tatum had perhaps his worst shooting night to date against the Suns when they last met. In fact, the game was so bad, he just gave up midway through, and although he wasn't mic'd up, it looked like he asked coach Brad Stevens to take him out. I don't think the game had anything to do with the competition, however. He hovers right around 30 DKFP on a nightly basis, and I think he'll have a memory of that dreadful showing. It should be motivation enough for Tatum to excel here.
Al-Farouq Aminu, POR vs. MEM ($4,800): There's no rhyme or reason for it that I can find, but Aminu's shown some spark in recent weeks, especially in his shooting, where he's averaging a cool 50 percent from the floor over the past five games. He's always going to give you some great rebounding totals and is an ace at drawing fouls in the paint. His floor is a little low for me, but at this price, he won't have to do much to meet value.
Other forwards to consider: Paul George, OKC at SAC ($8,900), Draymond Green, GS at UTA ($6,400), and see above for loads of low-cost plays at this position.
CENTERS
For my final spend-up spot, it's either Anthony Davis ($11,400) or Joel Embiid ($10,200). It's conceivable that you could go with two forwards and Westbrook, so if you decide to go that way, here are three lower-cost options to help you get there.
Steven Adams, OKC at SAC ($7,000): I've loaded up on this game, but it's hard to stay away from the value. Adams has aptly handled Willie Cauley-Stein in their two matchups, averaging an eye-popping 14.5 rebounds over the two games. He hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard over the past few games, but he'll give you enough in other categories to offset a slim scoring night.
Larry Nance Jr, CLE at CHA ($6,300): The Hornets have no interior presence to speak of, but that's what you deserve when you decide to put all your chips in with Cody Zeller and ship Dwight Howard out of town. With Tristan Thompson out for a while, it's now Nance's frontcourt, and I think he'll shine in a game that will be a lot closer than most might think. He could be a bit tuckered out after his masterful 53 DKFP performance against the Pacers on Tuesday, but the Cavs don't really have alternative options. Nance has at least six assists in each of his last four games.
PUNT PLAY: Cheick Diallo, NO at MIL ($4,500): If you're feeling lucky, plug Diallo in a GPP or two and see what happens. Even though I think the bulk of Mirotic and Randle's output will flow elsewhere, Diallo could come in handy at the four, as Giannis will likely tear apart Darius Miller (or whoever ends up starting here). I expect Diallo to be in the mix in some fashion.
No other options here. I don't mind Andre Drummond, but I like Griffin as the better frontcourt play. Getting a little contrarian at center could be advantageous, especially as salary gets scarce.
