This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
DraftKings has excluded the DEN/LAC from its main slate on Saturday, so we will focus on the six games available at the 7 PM ET tip-off. To give you the best coverage possible, I will conclude the article with a couple of picks for the excluded game.
First, let's take a look at what's happening on the injury front as we enter Saturday's games. The most significant news involves Chris Paul, who's expected to miss two weeks to a month with a hamstring strain. Paul owners are surely scrambling for replacements in seasonal leagues, but in DFS formats we can look at Paul's injury as an opportunity to find value elsewhere on the roster. Eric Gordon ($6,100) should be considered as the reliable pivot in this situation. GPP lineups could also benefit from an appearance by Brandon Knight ($3,300) somewhere down the line, but a wait-and-see approach is recommended here as we have no idea how significant his contribution might be.
Kawhi Leonard is expected to be out in this back-to-back game. Toronto will likely be without Kyle Lowry (thigh), Serge Ibaka (OUT - knee), Danny Green (knee) and Jonas Valanciunas (OUT - hand). Below is a list of worthwhile pivots for the Raptors, in order of overall output:
Fred VanVleet ($5,900)
Pascal Siakam ($6,000)
OG Anunoby ($3,500)
Greg Monroe ($4,300)
Goran Dragic (knee) continues to be out for the Heat, but Justise Winslow (ankle) is questionable, so we should expect to see extended run from the likes of Dwyane Wade ($5,500) and Tyler Johnson ($5,100) on Saturday.
The final major injury situation is occurring in Dallas, where Dennis Smith Jr (wrist) continues to sit, and Wesley Matthews (foot) is a game-time call. While Jalen Brunson has started for Smith, I still like J.J. Barea ($4,700) as the pivot for both Smith and Matthews.
Even though the WAS/PHO matchup clocks in with a 231.5 O/U, there isn't one particular game that stands out for me today, instead an assortment of players in exploitable spots hold my interest as I commence lineup construction. With the above picots in mind, let's move on to the other endorsements I have for today. I'll endeavor to diversify my three picks at each position with a spend-option, a mid-range target, and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
James Harden, HOU vs., SA ($11,600): I favor Harden over Westbrook in this case due to Paul's injury, and Harden has always seen a bump when Paul is absent. I don't think Westbrook's matchup is particularly bad, but I believe the $500 extra will more than make up for the difference in output here. The pace of the game isn't that great, but Harden has to be a guy to consider every time he plays over the next few weeks, as he'll take over the games while Paul is sidelined.
Klay Thompson, GS vs. DAL ($6,400): I'm sliding past a host of other high-priced guys to give you the mid-range target that I promised, but I honestly like Curry better than Thompson in this matchup. Thompson fought through a bad night from beyond the arc and still logged a 36.5 DKFP score in the Warriors' last game versus the Mavs, and Dallas is currently banged up in the backcourt. If Thompson can right the ship from long-range, he could be a valuable asset to your lineups on Saturday.
Kelly Oubre Jr, PHO at WAS ($4,600): I think J.J. Barea is a lock at this price range, but GPP and cash lineups could benefit from an appearance by Oubre, who will fly under the radar as the newest member of the Suns. He put up 28.5 DKFP in 26 minutes of work in his debut, so Phoenix certainly intends to get the most out of him. Couple that with a revenge game against his former team, and you've got an intriguing value play worth considering.
Other guards to consider: Devin Booker, PHO at WAS ($8,800), Jimmy Butler, PHI vs. TOR ($7,400), J.J. Redick, PHI vs. TOR ($4,900)
FORWARDS
Kevin Durant, GS vs. DAL ($9,200): I already gave Curry a mention, but I think Durant is the best way into this home game for the Warriors. The Mavs have provided a wide berth to players like Durant recently, as they've yielded big games to Tobias Harris, Trevor Ariza, and Bogdan Bogdanovic over the past two weeks. Draymond Green ($6,300) is a cheaper way to go, and Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league against the four – in fact, a Durant/Curry – Green stack would be an excellent play today.
Khris Middleton, MIL at MIA ($6,500): Let's face it, this is a crappy back-to-back for the Bucks as they face a long trip to Miami after a hard-fought game in Boston. I'm hoping that the dose of Vitamin E will offset the jet lag because I still think Middleton is a solid play in this price range. He's a solid 30-plus DKFP contributor on a nightly basis, and they have a much easier matchup against Miami, who ranks poorly across several positions, but they've performed especially bad against small forwards over the past two weeks (20th in the league).
Trevor Ariza, WAS vs. PHO ($5.300): With the departure of Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers, there aren't as many mouths to feed in Washington, and they're still without Otto Porter and Dwight Howard. Ariza is the primary beneficiary of this course of events, and the Wizards should continue to lean on him in the short-term while they struggle to find a winning rotation. He's averaged almost 41 DKFP over the last three games, further highlighting the bump in output.
Other forwards to consider: Luka Doncic, DAL at GS ($8,100), Pascal Siakam, TOR at PHI ($6,000)
CENTERS
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. TOR ($9,600): Of course, with Toronto, banged up, Embiid is an excellent play here. You're not going to be able to afford him if you've already spent up, so you'd have to make some sacrifices to fit him in. I made a Harden/Curry/Embiid stack and only had to hold my nose in a couple of spots, so it's doable. When you think about similar output at a lower price, I think Embiid might have the broadest baseline, which makes him a more valuable target than some of the elite guards.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. MIL ($6,600): At this price, Whiteside is someone to consider if you feel like the Bucks' back-to-back will have a noticeable effect on their performance on Saturday. While Giannis is a fierce interior threat, Brook Lopez is, well, not that fierce. Whiteside's price has dropped recently because he's failed to eclipse 40 DKFP in his last four games, but that could also mean he's due to blow up – at least, that's a good theory to go with if you elect to roster him.
Richaun Holmes, PHO at WAS ($3,800): You could do a lot worse than Holmes in this spot. I never thought I'd say this, but the Wizards and the Suns are equally bad at this point so Phoenix should be able to give a lot of guys some decent stat lines. Holmes has seen around 20 minutes per game, and when you look at what the Wizards have to offer up front, you have to think that Holmes could take advantage here.
Other centers to consider: Steven Adams, OKC at UTA ($7,300), Deandre Ayton, PHO at WAS ($7,200)
DEN at LAC: BEST PLAYS
This is a run-down of my favorite plays on both sides of this matchup. I've endeavored to diversify the salaries to make things easier to attain. I favor Denver in this game so that's where I'll be trying to insert most of my salary,
NUGGETS
Nikola Jokic, ($18,000): Jokic is expensive but an almost certain lock here. He sees a 24 percent bump in output when he's had multiple days of rest, and the assist combo of Jamal Murray ($9,600) to Jokic is one of the most prolific in the league. I like Murray and Jokic as a stack, for sure.
With Paul Millsap and Will Barton out, I think Mason Plumlee ($7,000) comes at an excellent value, and I also can't exclude Trey Lyles ($4,600) as a punt play if you get really low on cash.
CLIPPERS
At this point, Tobias Harris is no longer affordable, but you could probably still fit Lou Williams ($8,600), who's a little cheaper than Danilo Gallinari and can probably give you about the same value.
Patrick Beverley ($4,800) has put up some decent stat lines recently, and I think this is where you have to go if you favor spending on Denver as I have. Things get a little precarious from here on, but I would probably have to punt with Avery Bradley ($3,800) or Boban Marjanovic ($3,000) after that or continue to play Denver with Malik Beasley ($3,600).
