This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
PHI (-8.5) vs. WAS, O/U: 230
UTA (-5) vs. MEM, O/U: 225
Two-game slates play much differently than the standard classic slates we're used to in the regular season. It's too volatile, and simply "playing the best plays" is almost never a winning formula. Game-scripting should take precedence over just following the projections, and the strategy employed should be closer to that of single-game showdowns. Specifically, construct lineups to reflect two specific outcomes instead of just mixing and matching the players who are likely to be optimal if the games were simulated 100 times.
The Sixers have blown out the Wizards by 25 or more in consecutive games. Can Washington make one last stand at home to avoid the sweep? Or can they at least keep it competitive for the fans in attendance? If so, it's the better of the two game environments for producing fantasy points. If not, the relevant players likely won't see enough minutes to make value.
The UTA-MEM matchup appears considerably safer to target. The Grizzlies will be desperate to even the series before it heads back to Utah, and that seems possible as the Jazz have played down to their competition at times throughout the season. Another reason to target this contest is the fact that the three most expensive players on the slate are playing in the other game, and there is plenty of value on both sides in this one.
Injuries to Monitor
Russell Westbrook (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Westbrook continues to be listed as questionable as he deals with a sprained ankle but he hasn't missed any time, and it's hard to imagine him not playing with the Wizards facing elimination.
Ish Smith (groin): QUESTIONABLE
Smith has played 20-plus minutes off the bench in all three games against the Sixers but he's listed as questionable due to a groin injury. If he were to sit, Raul Neto would likely see extra run.
Elite Players
Guard:
Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
Westbrook is coming off his best performance of the series in Game 3 when he put up 26/12/10 in 34 minutes on his way to 60.5 DK points. Unfortunately for the Wizards, they lost by 25 or more for the second consecutive game as they look completely outmatched by the Sixers. I think the decision on whether or not to roster Westbrook should come down whether or not you think the game stays competitive. He'd likely see 40-plus minutes in a close game and if that's the case, he's going to be the highest scorer on the slate more often that not.
Center:
Joel Embiid ($9,500)
Embiid put up 57.5 DK points in just 28 minutes Saturday as the Sixers blew out the Wizards. His salary has fallen to its lowest point in 10 games, likely because he's only seen 30 minutes twice in the past eight games. The matchup against Washington seems ideal, but the blowout risk is significant. Embiid has the upside to hit big in limited minutes however, and based on the salary savings, I prefer him slightly over Westbrook.
SG/SF:
Bradley Beal ($9,100)
Beal has shot just 3-for-20 from three-point range for the series, and he's failed to reach 45 fantasy points in consecutive games. There are plenty of appealing, cheaper options to choose from, not to mention the Wizards are the bigger underdog on the slate. For these reasons, I'd expect Beal to be the least popular of the spend-up options, but he still has considerable upside and that makes him a good leverage play for tournaments.
Expected Chalk
Mike Conley ($7,000)
Conley has scored at least 49 DK points in each of the three games against the Grizzles. He's been playing mid-30s minutes and his salary is still quite favorable for that type of run and production. People have been reluctant to roster him with Donovan Mitchell back in the lineup, and that could slightly lessen his popularity again. I'd still expect Conley to be relatively chalky s there isn't much for value on these playoff slates, and that's especially true tonight.
Value Picks
Ja Morant ($8,400)
Morant has played 40-plus minutes in three of the Grizzlies four playoff games and he's topped 59 fantasy points twice in that span. He should see all the usage he wants with Memphis desperate for a win before the series heads back to Utah.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,000)
Mitchell took 23 shots in 30 minutes on his way to 41 DK points in Game 3. He should continue to see increased minutes as he works his way back from injury, and I'd expect mid-30s minutes if the game stays close. We're used to seeing Mitchell's salary above 9K when he's healthy and for $8,000, he has considerable upside.
Ben Simmons ($7,900)
Simmons is coming off a rather disappointing 34.75 DK points as he played only 30 minutes in Saturday's blowout win. His salary has also started to creep up, and that should lead to him being slightly less popular than he has been. However, the matchup against the Wizards is still an ideal spot if the game stays close, and Simmons topped 50 fantasy points in the first two games of the series.
Rudy Gobert ($7,800)
Gobert has seen 36 minutes in consecutive games and put up 40-plus DK points in each of them. His salary peaked at $9,000 on May 7 and now for $7,800, with a bump in minutes for the playoffs, he's become a bargain. Potential foul trouble seems like the only thing that could stop him from making value.
Tobias Harris ($7,300)
Harris is coming off 45.25 DK points in just 32 minutes in Game 3 on Saturday. He put up 51.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes in Game 1. His salary is just too cheap for such a good matchup against the Wizards. Similar to the other Sixers, blowout risk is the only real concern.
