This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
The first thing that stands out to me on this 10-game slate is the shortage of top-shelf talent, as only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Russell Westbrook register a price above 10K. You can make an argument to include Karl-Anthony Towns and Paul George in that grouping as they are both close to eclipsing that number. As you'll see below, we will be able to capitalize on some injury situations, and thus be able to buy 1-2 top-shelf guys – it might be slightly tougher to decide who will be the slate-breaker.
As we track injuries on Friday's slate, your first value opportunity comes with Kyrie Irving's (eye) absence. Both Terry Rozier ($6,100) and Gordon Hayward ($5,400) have proven to be the likely beneficiaries in this scenario, and I especially like Hayward's price here.
The Lakers might be without Kyle Kuzma (back) tonight, and the most sensible pivot to target is Brandon Ingram ($6,800), who will shoulder a more significant load with LeBron James and Rajon Rondo still sidelined.
The Timberwolves have a litany of problems, with Derrick Rose, Robert Covington, and Jeff Teague all listed as likely scratches. This gives me a bit more motivation to go with Towns (more on that below), but Andrew Wiggins ($6,600) and Tyus Jones ($5,800) will generate the biggest boosts in this situation.
THESE PIVOTS ARE LIKELY MY FAVORITE PLAYS, especially Ingram, Rozier, and Hayward. I will offer alternates below, but these three should be all over my lineups tonight.
Now, back to the spend-ups. I think I can safely write Giannis off in a game against the Hawks where they are heavily favored. This leaves me with Russell Westbrook ($11,700) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900) as my two favorite plays. Both of these games promise to be high-paced affairs, but there are question marks on both ends. Westbrook's history versus Portland has been good but not great, and Towns is squaring off against one of the hottest centers in the league right now in Nikola Vucevic. Neither of these guys has played their opponent yet, so we don't have a good sample size. And the more I look at the top, I see myself building a balanced lineup first and then seeing where I could make sacrifices for either of them. Unlike previous years, cash game players have been firing up the top-shelf guys a lot more often and I worry about missing out on the huge, slate-breaking stats that could come from either of these players. With the injury situations and pivots above in mind, let's move on to find our best options at various salary points on this slate.
GUARDS
D'Angelo Russell, BKN at MEM ($7,400): You're always going to contend with Spencer Dinwiddie taking some action away, but Russell has come alive with 56 and 43 DKFP over the last two games – giving us a more reliable floor to work with. We may also see Mike Conley sit tonight, which should result in a softer spot for Russell to exploit. The pace of this matchup doesn't thrill me, but I'm still fairly confident in the play.
Lou Williams, LAC at PHO ($6,700): I am a bigger proponent of Ingram and Rozier at this price point, but the league's best sixth-man should enjoy a good run with the second unit against the Suns. The Clippers' game variance has been extremely swingy, and the Suns are no longer the West's doormat team despite their overall record. Sweet Lou should see his share of opportunities playing cleanup in what should be a moderately high-paced game.
Tomas Satoransky, WAS at MIA ($5,800): Attention, season-long players: if someone hasn't pounced on him already, you need to get on the Satoransky train. The Bradley Beal trade rumors are beginning to swirl, and Tomas may find himself in a plum fantasy scenario if that comes to pass. For those of us analyzing his DFS value, I think the Wizards will keep giving him as much time as he can handle as they test the waters for a possible move on Beal. They need to know if he can lead this team, and the recent numbers can only boost their overall confidence. Miami will be one of his tougher defensive foes since becoming the everyday starter, but I think a DKFP score in the 35-40 range will be an excellent total for the price.
Other guards to consider: Bradley Beal, WAS at MIA ($9,200), Luka Doncic, DAL at BOS ($7,400), Malcolm Brogdon, MIL vs. ATL ($5,800)
FORWARDS
Paul George, OKC at POR ($9,700): Lurking just below the 10K beasts lies George, who can't be ignored in this tight contest. I think this matchup will be a battle to the finish and if you aren't on Westbrook, George is the most sensible play if you want a piece of this game. To be honest, I would more likely find myself exploring Dennis Schroder ($5,300) if I wanted in on the cheap. But as I cut and paste, I may see myself leaning toward George as a pivot to a Towns or Westbrook.
Danilo Gallinari, LAC at PHO ($7,000): If you're looking for a reliable floor, look no further than Gallinari, who's supplied some of the most reliable totals in the conference. He's only scored below 30 DKFP twice in the past ten games and popped for 40-plus DKFP games against the Warriors and Lakers over the past two weeks. My only worry here is a potential disappearance in a blowout – and that alone might make him cost-prohibitive to some – but I think this game will be closer than Vegas would lead us to believe.
Jaren Jackson, MEM vs. BKN ($5,600): You'll find below that I'm a big Marc Gasol fan on this slate as well, but Jackson is a great value play against a Nets team that can't rebound and also can't defend any position particularly well. Couple that fact with his tour-de-force game against the Pistons on Wednesday, and I think the Grizzlies will end up giving him a lot more playing time with him almost winning that game by himself.
Additional forwards to consider: Justise Winslow, MIA vs. WAS ($6,700), Trevor Ariza, WAS at MIA ($5,800), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL vs. NY ($4,900)
CENTERS
There are so many centers in favorable situations tonight, so I think it's definitely a 2-3 center night for us.
Marc Gasol, MEM vs. BKN ($8,100): While Vucevic and Towns are beating each other up, you can easily slide down a bit and find similar value with Gasol, who is favorable for the same reasons I rostered Jackson below. Gasol took the Nets to task with a 51 DKFP performance in their last meeting. And while Gasol won't have a slate-breaking total, he'll give you the value you should expect at this price point. There's no reason to believe the Nets have the tools to stop a repeat performance.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. WAS ($6,800): With Washington's well-documented interior woes, this will probably be a high-ownership spot for Whiteside, who couldn't have a better scenario to post a big number. Miami's big man hasn't exactly been lighting it up recently, but he's also tangled with the likes of Toronto, Orlando, and Milwaukee, all of whom are stingy in the paint. If the game stays competitive, we should see Whiteside back in the 40 DKFP range once again.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at MEM ($5,200): I know, I already said Brooklyn couldn't rebound, but Allen's 42 DKFP night against the Grizzlies was enough to give me pause. I'd be thrilled with a total like that, but Allen's averages aren't exactly confidence-building with this pick. Still, the upside is there, and I would give him a run in a few GPPs for good measure.
Additional centers to consider: Jusuf Nurkic (arguably one of the hottest players in the league right now), POR vs. OKC ($8,000), Domantas Sabonis, IND at CHI ($7,000), Wendell Carter, CHI vs. IND ($4,900)
So, I'm never one to put out a sample lineup in these articles, as I feel it's a bit disingenuous – I'd like to win as well. And while I've given you a great template, I don't want to spoon-feed you with rosters. I will say this, however. I've found many scenarios where Westbrook works with a variety of value plays plus a 7-8K elite play, which means you can do the same with Towns, George, or whoever you think will go big tonight. Best of luck!
