Top 400 MLB Prospect Rankings Update

The top 400 prospect rankings were fully updated Tuesday, with 126 players getting added, including 62 from this year's draft class. The team top 20s are also updated, and those will continue to be updated in real time through the trade deadline.

As always, I did a mailbag podcast on the final Wednesday of the month discussing a lot of the movement and additions.

You can listen to the RotoWire Prospect Podcast or subscribe on your podcast app by searching "RotoWire Prospect Podcast".

Here is the written version of the podcast. Feel free to add your own question in the comments, on Twitter or on Discord.

Dave McDonald: Who's been the most improved and who's fallen the most for the Guardians? Any legit bats coming?

Johnathan Rodriguez has burst back on the dynasty scene after struggling as an age-appropriate 22-year-old at Double-A last year. He hit .289/.364/.512 with 18 home runs, a 31.7 Hard% and a 26.7 K% in 88 games before getting promoted to Triple-A this week. Rodriguez has passed George Valera for me in terms of bat-first corner-outfield prospects who could provide some thump for Cleveland in a year or two. 

Chase DeLauter looked awesome during his rehab assignment before suffering a sprained ankle, and DeLauter's bat might be closer to big-league ready than some expect next season. Juan Brito is another hitter who keeps climbing the rankings. He's a classic Guardians hit-tool middle infielder, and he's checking all those boxes. The Amed Rosario trade makes it a little less crowded, although Brito is still behind Brayan Rocchio in the pecking order.

On the flip side, Valera is having a lost year due to injuries but also a pretty troubling year. I'm not completely writing him off, but I'm also not sure he will be deserving of a 40-man roster spot this offseason.

LoogyDownProductions: Do you think that this is the peak of Sebastian Walcott's (TEX) ascension? I am believer but wonder if this is the optimal sell-high moment?

It very well could be. This is such a challenging evaluation for me, and for big-league teams that may accept Walcott as a headliner in a massive deadline deal. Lazaro Montes (SEA) and Ricardo Cabrera (CIN) are the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked Arizona Complex League prospects, respectively, and they are both a year and a half older than Walcott. It's not as simple as just looking at his strikeouts and walks and declaring that there will be hit tool concerns, because he's been given a very aggressive assignment and has found a way to be very productive amid the whiffs. One thing that is very clear: he has the tools to be the No. 1 overall prospect in a year or two. The other thing that is clear is that he hasn't made enough contact against good enough pitching for us to feel confident in the hit tool.

Clownfish are clowns: What do you see as a realistic comp for Luis Matos? Tim Anderson in the OF?

I think of Matos long term as more like pre-2023 Wander Franco -- the high floor guy, not this year's high-ceiling version. Anderson has never had a chase rate below 36 percent, and Matos has a 27 percent chase rate as a rookie who was rushed to the majors, so he's going to have much better discipline than Anderson.

Nevo: What has you so high on Jared Jones (PIT) despite some good-not-great surface numbers this year?

First of all, I'd just say that you can essentially ignore ERA when looking at pitching prospects. If the ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP are all bad, then that's telling you something, but a high ERA in itself doesn't tell us much. His stuff is really good and he's a good athlete who is breaking out this year as a strike thrower. Jones' 70-grade fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball would make him a premium reliever, and that's the role most had him pegged for before the season. 

His walk rate has declined with each level he has climbed, so we're seeing him improve before our eyes almost weekly, and he's still just 21. Prep righties with this kind of electricity very rarely get to the cusp of the majors this quickly (Jones was the 44th overall pick in 2020).

EnricoMatasa: Love the Rayner Arias (SF) and Luis Baez (HOU) push. Why isn't Eduardo Quintero (LAD) getting the same love? He's fast and showing a good hit tool. Pretty solid frame to build on. Besides playing in the Dominican Summer League, what are my rose colored glasses overlooking?

Baez is really exciting (gives me young Eloy Jimenez vibes in a tiny sample), but not really relevant to Quintaro, since Baez opened in complex ball and is now at Single-A. 

Arias signed for $2.8 million and was a prospect to watch entering DSL play, whereas Quintero got roughly the eighth highest bonus the Dodgers handed out in January, so he came in with much less fanfare. I put Joendry Vargas where you'd like me to have Quintero, because Vargas was the best prospect the Dodgers signed this winter, so there's prior track record working in his favor. You could be right about Quintero needing to be higher, but I don't generally give low-pedigree DSL guys that kind of push just based on stats at this point in the calendar. There are plenty of guys with similar numbers and pedigree to Quintero -- Elias Medina and Arnaldo Lantigua both got bigger bonuses and are performing for the DSL Dodgers.

Steve S: Name one hitting and one pitching prospect currently 50th or higher that have top 10 potential...

I doubt any of the pitchers outside the top 50 will ever be ranked in the top 10, but Hurston Waldrep (ATL) and Jackon Jobe (DET) have enough upside to plausibly get there. If you're looking for a hitter who is outside the top 50 that could someday be top 10, the best place to look is the super young guys with limited pro experience. Anyone who has a decent chance of being top 10 that has a large pro sample is already in the top 50. So guys like Sammy Stafura (CIN), Arjun Nimmala (TOR), Luis Baez (HOU), Joendry Vargas (LAD), Rayner Arias (SF), Ricardo Cabrera (CIN), Felnin Celesten (SEA) are where I'd be looking for that type of upside.

Danny J: Is it almost time to welcome Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS) to the top 100?

He could be there on the update a month from now, and I already regret not ranking him a bit higher. Things have really clicked for him over the past couple months, particularly from a strike-throwing standpoint, both painting the corners with his fastball and freezing hitters with his breaking ball. He still walks more hitters than we'd like, but he's gotten the walks into a manageable range.

Baxter Jones: 400 rostered players 10-team roto dynasty. Trade Junior Caminero (TB) + Jackson Chourio (MIL) for one of Rafael Devers or Bo Bichette? Feels hard with Chourio's hot streak but gotta do that right?

The only reason I wouldn't do that is if you're rebuilding or if you think you've got a really good chance to win the league without doing the deal. In a league that shallow, you should be able to scoop up the next top prospects, which seems like what you've done with Chourio and Caminero.

Stretch: Will Bailey Ober, Bryan Woo, Andrew Abbott, Reese Olson and Griffin Canning be facing an innings limit this year? How would you rank them as win-now pieces this year and how would you rank them as long-term pieces in dynasty? Any you would be trading for or trading away in dynasty?

You're probably stressing a bit too much about the workload for these guys, although Woo could have a start or two skipped down the stretch or he could be shut down if they completely fall out of the race. Others could reach some sort of innings limit in the final week or two, but that's true of several pitchers on pretty much every fantasy roster. I'd rank them Woo, Ober, Abbott, Olson, Canning long term. Short term, I'd rank them Ober, Woo, Abbott, Canning, Olson. I still think Abbott is a sell high (96.2% strand rate, 25.3 GB%), although his price has gone up since the last time I said he was a sell high. Woo and Olson are guys I plan on rostering in leagues next year, so I'd co-sign the idea of acquiring them now in dynasty.

John Vaghi: Surprised to see no ranking for Dyan Jorge (COL). Tooled up and already promoted to Single-A. Was this an oversight or are you just not seeing it?

Ross Redcay: What's holding you back from adding Dyan Jorge (COL) to the list? I know he was old for the Arizona Complex League, but performing pretty well at Single-A now. Lots of contact, good speed, protectable power...

Jorge was an oversight, but there was also some truth in the oversight -- I would have caught him on some queries if he had been even borderline age-appropriate in the Arizona Complex League. I haven't heard a good reason why he was assigned to the ACL in the first place as a 20-year-old, and even now he's older than most of the legitimate hitting prospects currently at Single-A, so this is the exact opposite of the Sebastian Walcott (TEX) conundrum. I'd say you can think of him in that ~200 range and we'll check back in a month to see how he's doing at Single-A. If he's been 30 or 40 percent better than league average, he could slot in quite a bit higher than 200, but I essentially am not weighing anything he did in the ACL into the evaluation.

Jeff Ashburner: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Dylan Crews (WAS) and Paul Skenes (PIT) all have a 2024 ETA. Do you think they are up for the majority of the year, or just late?

Crews is the one I think could be held down until September of next year, just because the Nationals are so far away from being competitive, they'll want to time as many of his seven years of club control for when the team's competitive window might be open.

If Langford and Skenes are not up by mid-to-early June (Super Two cutoff), I'd assume they either underperformed or got hurt. I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Skenes was in Pittsburgh's Opening Day rotation next year. I've heard other suggest Langford could be up as early as this September, and while I don't see that happening, I also wouldn't completely rule it out if he dominates in the upper levels over the next five weeks.

Matt Angelo: After a slow start, Edwin Arroyo (CIN) has turned it around since June 1 (hitting .288 with a 22 K% and 11 BB%). Why the big drop?

I knew he heated up, and I probably dropped him too much. I didn't set out to lower Arroyo in the rankings, but I also added 50-80 players to the rankings ahead of him, and another 30-50 prospects just passed him, so that's how you get the arrows. I've got Arroyo behind Sal Stewart and Cam Collier, and you could make a very good case he should be ahead of them, so he belongs more in that 175 range.

Sonny: I'm curious why Adam Kloffenstein (TOR) has double down arrows. He's having his best statistical year in a long time at an age-appropriate level and I thought I'd see him move up your list, not down...

Another case where the down arrows shouldn't be the focus, it's more just an accomplishment for Kloffenstein to still be ranked after I added 126 players to the rankings. The stuff data I've been able to track down isn't overly promising -- fastball was 92-95 earlier this season. He gets guys to chase on a lot of breaking balls that big leaguers will probably lay off of, but he's good at generating weak contact and could be a No. 4 starter.

Jim Sloan: I see you moved Zach Dezenzo (HOU) down (I thought he'd go double arrow up into top 100) and also put the ETA at 2025 (I was thinking early 2024). So, what am I missing here?

The final case of don't focus on the arrows. I'd recommend mostly throwing out what he did while with High-A Asheville. He was old for the level (turned 23 in May) and playing in an extreme hitter's park. Now he's still a little older than the true prospects at Double-A, so he needs to crush it here to keep moving up the ladder, and he's a mediocre defender, so he'll be working on that aspect of his game as well. He has also stolen 14 bases this season, which won't be a part of his game in the majors. He doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster until December of 2025, so there's no rush from the Astros' standpoint. 

OA Rookie: Who are a few names outside the top 100 who gain the most value in an OPS league while punting steals and roughly how high would they rise on the list?

Ryan Clifford (HOU), Tyler Locklear (SEA), Luis Baez (HOU), Ricardo Cabrera (CIN), Abimelec Ortiz (TEX), Justyn-Henry Malloy (DET), Samuel Basallo (BAL), Jace Jung (DET), Carlos De La Cruz (PHI), Kemp Alderman (MIA) basically all the catchers and first basemen.

Toolsy: Druw Jones (ARI), I don't want to sell low; should I? I made the mistake with Luis Matos after an injury and poor performance. Do you still believe?

I mentioned on last week's podcast that I'd be OK selling low on Jones (within reason). I've heard reports about him not passing the eye test this year as a hitter, so it's not just the stats that look bad, and he hasn't played at any level that I would have expected to be a challenge for him pre-draft. There could be some thought that his injuries (shoulder, quadriceps) have contributed to his poor play, but I also think there's a chance he's being/been listed as injured while he's actually been working on development on the side and they just didn't want him adding to the sample of poor play in tracked games. I changed his ETA from 2025 to 2027, which kind of sums up his pro career to date.

Nevo: Lawrence Butler (OAK) is showing so well this year with a great approach and above-average power/speed while climbing up to AAA. What's holding you back from pushing him into the top 50 or higher?

There's definitely a case for having him a bit higher. I agree with everything you said about him. This was a very tough update to put together, both in terms of ordering the players already on the list and slotting in the 126 additions, and there's A LOT of talent in the top 110 or so. You could (or someone else could) make a very compelling case to bump just about any prospect in that range about 20 spots higher. 

Steve G: Did James Wood (WAS) do something or not do something to drop to 22?

Chris Mickler: I see a lot of similarities between James Wood (WAS) and Elly De La Cruz in terms of profile. Yet you have a soft fade on Wood and I think you're still high on Elly. Would love to hear your thoughts on the intricacies of ranking these type players...

I've never really thought about Wood the same way as De La Cruz. De La Cruz has 80-grade power and 80-grade speed. If we want to be generous, we could say Wood has 70-grade power potential and 60-grade speed, but it's probably going to be closer to 70-grade raw, 60-grade game power and 55-grade speed that ticks down with each season. 

I have unintentionally become the Wood pessimist of the industry by not having him in my preseason top 10 or my current top 10 -- the highest I ever ranked him was 11th exactly a year ago (July 26, 2022). He went from 15th on May 24 to 22nd on July 24 and in that time he had a .798 OPS and a 31.0 K%. Going from 15th to 22nd is almost nothing in terms of value, so my opinion on Wood hasn't changed at all this season, there are just other prospects who I value more than I did on the last update.

LoogyDownProductions: As you worked through this update, did any org seem to rise or fall?

Rangers, Red Sox, Reds, Cubs, Brewers, Mariners all seem to be trending up. 

I'm really kind of amazed at how mediocre the Royals and A's systems are, given that they've been "rebuilding" this whole time. Kansas City replacing Dayton Moore with his understudy (J.J. Picollo) rather than just cleaning house completely was a huge mistake by ownership, and I have no idea what the A's are doing when it comes to the draft or targeting players in trades. 

It's also worth noting that after a bunch of graduations, the Guardians and Rays are no longer in the mix for the deepest systems in the game, which they were a year or two ago.

Travis Magnuson: For those of us holding Vaughn Grissom in our minors, where does he fall on this list?

Grissom's dynasty value could shift more than any other player at next week's trade deadline. Right now, I'd put him by Adael Amador (COL) (back of the top 100), but if it looked like he got traded into an everyday job at second base he'd be a borderline top 50 guy.

BabboB: Can you expand on your fondness for Matt Wallner? Overall MLB strikeout rate is decent this season at 24% but that's driven by a lucky 0% in 14 PA during his May call-up, was 36% in April and back up to 31% now in July (his longest stint so far).

I happily plugged Wallner into some redraft lineups for this M-Th period on The NFBC, so the fact that he's currently playable in mixed redraft leagues and hitting fifth against RHP in a decent lineup is a big part of it. He hit one out to the upper deck in the opposite field for one of his two home runs Thursday against Seattle, which I haven't seen since Joey Gallo's Futures Game batting practice a decade ago.

I also don't think you should isolate those strikeout rates. He's only had 62 plate appearances this season, so you're learning much more from his 27.4 K% than you are from a smaller sample within those 62 PA.

San Francisco Giants: Could you expand upon your thoughts on Liover Peguero?

He had a really impressive run in the minors prior to his call-up, and looks like he's added some muscle. A 34.3 Hard% for a middle infielder is really good, and he was using the whole field while keeping the strikeouts in check and still putting his speed to work on the bases and dealing with bad luck on balls in play (.290 BABIP at Double-A, .227 BABIP at Triple-A). I view him as a potential 15-20 HR, 20-SB middle infielder who hits for a decent average and plays every day. As things stand, he could be a great post-hype target in 2024, especially if the K-rate remains a bit high this year in the majors.

Mike Ryan: Now that Sal Frelick has been called up, who would you rather roster for this season only, Frelick or Luis Matos?

Fun one! Frelick for redraft and Matos for dynasty. Frelick is essentially readymade. His prime years could begin this season/next season, whereas Matos is still very green and is a player I expect to get better each of the next couple seasons.

Dawes Williams: The Padres are an org that tends to be very aggressive with prospects, yet Nathan Martorella has been left at High-A all season as a 22-year-old, even though he has shown a great approach with ample power. Any insight on why SD hasn't been more aggressive with him?

Sometimes I think teams leave guys at levels they can crush while they have them in trade talks. If they bump Martorella to Double-A and he struggles, no team will want him since he's a first base prospect. If he doesn't get bumped to Double-A after the trade deadline, then I'm out of ideas.

Danny J: Carlos De La Cruz (PHI) is TALL. Does that prototype worry you or will he keep raking and keep the double up arrows?

Ulysses: Thoughts on Griff McGarry (PHI) and Carlos De La Cruz (PHI)? Finally, what one or couple franchises have improved the most in your eyes on evaluating and drafting players?

De La Cruz is a 6-foot-8 first baseman/designated hitter long term who has played some outfield this year. He has 70- or 80-grade raw power, and he has actually been better away from Reading, which is a notorious hitter's park. There's a decent chance big-league pitchers will find holes in his swing that ends up relegating him to a Chris Carter type of career, but there's a chance he can make it work and be a Richie Sexson type. I still have McGarry pegged for a high-strikeout relief role in the late innings, but he's also coming off his best start at Double-A, so the door is still open for him to make it as a starter. 

Off the top of my head, I couldn't really come up with an organization that I've noticed improve in the draft over the past year or two. Detroit would be an obvious one since they jettisoned a bad front office, but I didn't love their draft this year. Whenever the White Sox clean house, that could be an obvious one, since I usually hate their drafts.

Dandy F Chiggins: Not a prospect but what's up with Josh Lowe — is he going to be a good hitter going forward? Maybe a top 20 outfielder for dynasty?

It's pretty frustrating how he not only never plays against lefties, but also sits against a righty here and there. The speed is the driver of his value. I think we can pencil him in for 30 steals per year with around 20 home runs in his part-time role, so you just have to deal with the unappealing playing time situation.

3-Putt Par: Huge jump for Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). Why the increased optimism and do you see a path to everyday at-bats in the bigs next season?

Part of it is he's just been playing really well while moving up to face better pitching. He's got a 1.003 OPS since June 15. The bigger aspect is just me shifting the way I value this type of hitter with a bad approach but a lot of other strong qualities. Being low on guys like Rafaela is how you miss on guys like Adolis Garcia and Jose Siri. Rafaela is an elite defensive center fielder, so he could stay in the lineup even with a .285 OBP if he's hitting for power and causing havoc on the bases. It's still wise to fade the Mallex Smith types, who aren't even good defenders, but I think there's a place for guys like Rafaela.

Stickey Lewis: Why no love for Darell Hernaiz (OAK)?

I ranked him (228), so I have some respect for what he brings to the table. It's just a very low-ceiling type of profile, especially in Oakland. I like Prieto more for draft-and-hold or AL-only leagues next year than I do in dynasty. He could play a decent amount and hit .290 or something like that, but he won't hit double-digit home runs or steal double-digit bases.

Phil Moyer: Curious about your thoughts on a few fallers like Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Nick Yorke (BOS) and Drew Gilbert (HOU)...

Rocchio is developing a potentially 70-grade hit tool and is running more, it's just a matter of how much power he'll get to. I think he'll eventually be a Bryson Stott type of fantasy contributor, with a chance for a little more. I like Yorke, but he got pushed down with all the additions and other prospects outshining him. He's got a small margin for error offensively, given his defensive shortcomings. With Gilbert, he's been productive lately at Double-A, but he's not walking much at all, so I think he's still kind of figuring out that level and I pushed him too high on the prior update.

Ulysses: Albeit short sample size but Tanner Bibee has been 'better' and adjusted 'better' than Gavin Williams, Taj Bradley, Logan Allen, Emmet Sheehan and Bryce Miller. Do you think his ceiling is higher than those mentioned above after this sneak peak?

I don't think his ceiling is higher than Williams or Bradley. Similar ceiling to Sheehan and Miller and a much higher ceiling than Allen. Props to Bibee for performing this well, but I don't think his success is a clear indicator he's better long term than the guys who haven't had as much success. Starting pitching development in the big leagues is often a slow burn. Many of the best starters don't really hit their stride until age 25 or 26.

Nevo: Are Tyler Black's (MIL) power and speed real or is he more like Oswald Peraza who has gone 30/40 in a season's worth of games in AAA yet that doesn't seem to be representative of his actual upside?

You never want to look at minor-league stolen-base totals and project that same level of in-game speed in the majors, it's just so much easier to run wild against minor-league pitchers and catchers. I'd be hoping for 15 homers and 25 steals from Black in a peak year. The biggest swing factors in his value are whether he's a leadoff/No. 2 hitter and whether he's a true everyday player (20 strikeouts in 89 PA vs LHP this year).