A lot can still change as we hit the homestretch of the NFL regular season, but certain underdog teams have already blown past expectations, while others already have regrets from the 2023 NFL Draft.
Below, we'll take a look at which teams have performed the best relative to preseason predictions from CBS Sports and ESPN panels, in addition to examining which teams may have been successful underdogs had they avoided a regrettable draft-day decision.
NFL Underdogs
Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts
The entire slate of CBS analysts had Houston and Indianapolis occupying the bottom two spots in the AFC South in some order, while ESPN had the Colts 29th and the Texans 31st out of 32 teams in their power rankings. Instead, both teams are 7-5, having left the Titans in the dust and just a game back of the division-leading Jaguars, whose perch atop the AFC South standings looks much shakier after QB Trevor Lawrence's ankle injury. Even if they don't catch Jacksonville, both Houston and Indianapolis have a chance to make the postseason after winning fewer than five games last year. They are two of the eight teams sitting at 7-5 or better while vying for seven AFC playoff spots.
The Texans and Colts both came into the season with highly drafted rookie QBs, but they have taken different paths to playoff contention. Houston hit on the No. 2 overall pick and has a franchise QB in C.J. Stroud, who has led the team to relevance. The jury's still out No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson, whom Indianapolis lost for the season after Week 5, but the Colts have been competent on both sides of the ball while excelling in close games in the team's first year under coach Shane Steichen. Indianapolis is 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less heading into Week 14.
The embodiment of the Colts' successful season so far was one of the top upsets of the year from back in Week 3. In Gardner Minshew's first start of the season at QB, the Colts came away with a 22-19 overtime win in Baltimore over a Ravens team that has lost only two other games. That upset was sealed by a 53-yard OT field goal from Matt Gay, who became the first kicker in NFL history to make four field goals of 50-plus yards in one game. Houston's signature moment came in a two-week span that cemented Stroud as a star. After throwing for a rookie record 470 yards – including the game-winning TD with six seconds left -- in Week 9 against Tampa Bay, Stroud led Houston to a 30-27 road upset over Joe Burrow and the Bengals in what turned out to be Burrow's final full game of 2023.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were ranked 27th in ESPN's preseason power rankings and unanimously left out of the playoffs by the CBS Sports panel, but they find themselves on a three-game winning streak and tied for a wild card spot in the NFC at 6-6. Despite going 5-12 last season and trading away star cornerback Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, the Rams have been reinvigorated by the returns of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp from injuries, coupled with the emergence of young playmakers RB Kyren Williams and WR Puka Nacua, the latter of whom LA snagged in the fifth round as the steal of the 2023 NFL Draft. It didn't take long for the Rams to get a statement win, as the then-Kuppless Rams upset the NFC West rival Seahawks 30-13 in Seattle in the season opener thanks to 119 receiving yards from Nacua and two Williams rushing TDs.
Miami Dolphins
Among the five CBS analysts, none had the Dolphins winning the AFC East, and only one had Miami finishing among the top two teams in the division, while three had the Dolphins finishing last. Instead, Miami currently holds the No. 1 seed not just in the East but in the entire AFC at 9-3. The ESPN panel deserves credit for nailing this one, as the Dolphins were ranked sixth in ESPN's preseason power rankings. The Bills and Patriots have performed far below expectations, while the Jets lost QB Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles four plays into the season and never recovered, leaving Miami with surprisingly weak competition in the AFC East. Conversely, the Dolphins have enjoyed healthy and productive campaigns from their key players, as neither QB Tua Tagovailoa nor WR Tyreek Hill have missed a game.
Tua will tie a career high when he makes his 13th start of the season Monday against the Titans, while Hill has been the biggest key to Miami's success, as his 1,481 receiving yards through 12 games have the speedster on pace to set the single-season receiving yardage record. An easy schedule has also helped Miami exceed expectations so far, as the only opponent with a record of .500 or better that Miami has beaten is 6-6 Denver, whom the Dolphins defeated during the Broncos' 1-5 start. The Dolphins are 0-3 against other teams with a record of at least .500 and will close out the season against three consecutive such opponents if the Bills can keep their head above water.
2023 NFL Draft Regrets
Less than a full season into their NFL careers, it's much too early to put forth a definitive judgment regarding most members of the 2023 NFL Draft class, but three teams that currently find themselves outside the playoff picture likely can't help but regret the decisions they made during or leading up to the first round on April 27.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina's decision to trade for the first overall pick currently looks like a colossal failure, but it could instead have been hailed as a genius move by changing just one crucial detail. Had the Panthers drafted Stroud over Bryce Young with that pick, we would likely be talking about them as one of this year's upstart underdogs, especially in the weak NFC South. Instead, the Panthers have the league's worst record at 1-11 and will likely be giving Chicago the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The difference between Stroud and Young has been enormous. In nine of his 12 games, Stroud has posted more passing yards than Young's career high of 247, and blaming Young's lack of success on his supporting cast becomes much more difficult when you consider that Panthers backup Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards in his lone start of 2023, nearly doubling Young's season average of 186.8 passing yards. Not only did the Panthers probably choose the wrong guy, but they traded picks No. 9 and 61 in 2023, the likely first overall pick in 2024, a 2025 second-round pick, and WR DJ Moore to Chicago for the opportunity to do so.
Chicago Bears
Bears fans can feel good about the haul they got from Carolina, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't have regrets themselves as their team barrels towards another last-place finish in the NFC North. With the first overall pick in their pocket after going 3-14 in 2022, the Bears could have drafted Stroud and sold high on 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields after he flashed some encouraging progress down the stretch. Instead, the Bears are still searching for a QB to build around and will likely get much less in return for Fields this offseason, as the rest of the NFL has caught on that the mobile QB is far better in fantasy than real life. He's just 7-26 in 33 career starts, while undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent managed to go 2-2 while filling in for Chicago when Fields was injured earlier this season. Carolina's 2024 pick will likely help the Bears land highly touted QB prospect Caleb Williams, but a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, especially considering the previous three can't-miss QB prospects to be drafted in the first round out of USC were Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold.
Los Angeles Chargers
While you can forgive the Bears and Panthers for not turning the corner from bottom-feeders to contenders, the Chargers have actively moved out of the contender category. The lowlight of the team's 2023 calendar year has to be blowing a 27-point lead against the Jaguars in Justin Herbert's playoff debut in January, but calling Quentin Johnston's name in the first round of the NFL Draft in April may prove to be a mistake with even further-reaching ramifications. Theoretically, Johnson has had just about an ideal opportunity to hit the ground running. After Mike Williams tore his ACL in Week 3, Johnston got a chance to step into a starting role catching passes from a star QB in Herbert while defenses had to devote most of their attention to fellow WR Keenan Allen. To say the 21st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft has flopped would be an understatement, and with a better rookie receiver replacing Johnston, the 5-7 Chargers would probably be in playoff position instead of two games out of a wild card spot.
Johnston was drafted as part of a run of four consecutive WRs, behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and just ahead of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Between those four, Addison leads with 686 receiving yards, followed by Flowers' 613 and Smith-Njigba's 468. Johnston brings up the rear at 242 yards, and he has scored just one touchdown despite seeing multiple targets from Herbert in every game this season. When you expand the scope to all rookies, things get even worse for Johnston. Fifth-round pick Nacua leads with 1,029 receiving yards, while Texans third-rounder Tank Dell racked up 709 yards before his season-ending broken fibula. All told, 14 rookie WRs, plus four TEs and two RBs, have posted more receiving yards than Johnston, so the 21st overall pick in 2023 is also 21st among all rookies in receiving yards.
