2026 Kentucky Derby Preview
The most anticipated day in horse racing sets its eyes on Churchill Downs this Saturday for the 'Run for the Roses' in the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼ mile (10 furlongs) race is the shortest of the three Triple Crown events and features 20 horses. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. EST. Let's look at this year's participants along with their morning-line odds, record, jockey and trainer.
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Kentucky Derby 2026 Preview: Contenders and Odds
| Horse | Record (Starts, W-P-S) | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1. Renegade | 5, 2-2-1 | 4-1 | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Todd Pletcher |
| 2. Albus | 4, 2-0-1 | 30-1 | Manuel Franco | Riley Mott |
| 3. Intrepido | 6, 2-1-0 | 50-1 | Hector Berrios | Jeff Mullins |
| 4. Litmus Chest | 7, 2-0-2 | 50-1 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert |
| 6. Commandment | 5, 4-0-0 | 6-1 | Luis Saez | Brad Cox |
| 7. Danon Bourbon | 1, 1-0-0 | 20-1 | Atsuya Nishimura | Manabu Ikezoe |
| 8. So Happy | 4, 3-0-1 | 15-1 | Mike Smith | Mark Glatt |
| 9. The Puma | 4, 1-2-1 | 10-1 | Javier Castellano | Gustavo Delgado |
| 10. Wonder Dean | 2, 1-0-0 | 30-1 | Ryusei Sasaki | Daisuke Takayanagi |
| 11. Incredibolt | 5, 3-0-0 | 20-1 | Jaime Torres | Riley Mott |
| 12. Chief Wallabee | 3, 1-1-1 | 8-1 | Junior Alvarado | William Mott |
| 14. Potente | 3, 2-1-0 | 20-1 | Juan Hernandez | Bob Baffert |
| 15. Emerging Market | 2, 2-0-0 | 15-1 | Flavien Prat | Chad Brown |
| 16. Pavlovian | 10, 2-4-1 | 30-1 | Edwin Maldonado | Doug O'Neill |
| 17. Six Speed | 3, 2-1-0 | 50-1 | Brian Hernandez, Jr. | Bhupat Seemar |
| 18. Further Ado | 6, 3-1-1 | 6-1 | John Velasquez | Brad Cox |
| 19. Golden Tempo | 4, 2-0-2 | 30-1 | Jose Ortiz | Cherie DeVaux |
| 21. Great White | 4, 2-0-0 | 50-1 | Alex Achard | John Ennis |
| 22. Ocelli | 6, 0-1-2 | 50-1 | Joseph Ramos | D. Whitworth Beckman |
| 23. Robusta | 5, 1-1-0 | 50-1 | Emisael Jaramillo | Doug O'Neill |
Past Kentucky Derby Winners
2025: Sovereignty (7-1)
2024: Mystik Dan (18-1)
2023: Mage (15-1)
2022: Rich Strike (80-1)
2021: Mandaloun (26-1) *Medina Spirit (12-1) was later disqualified for a positive drug test
2020: Authentic (8-1)
2019: Country House (65-1)
2018: Justify (5-2)
2017: Always Dreaming (9-2)
2016: Nyquist (2-1)
Sovereignty ended a streak of four consecutive years with double-digit odds winners after besting favorite Journalism by a length and a half last year. Although he didn't run in the Preakness, Sovereignty was the first horse to win multiple legs of the Triple Crown since 2018, when Justify completed the trifecta.
Interestingly, Authentic in 2020 was the last winner that won its lead-in race to the Derby. Sovereignty and Mage both finished second at the Grade 1 Florida Derby preceding the Run for the Roses, while Mystik Dan took third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and Rich Strike had the same result in a Grade 3.
Top Kentucky Derby Favorites
This year's race is more wide open than a typical year, with Renegade being the morning-line favorite at 4-1 and four other horses coming it at 10-1 or better. Renegade enters having won his last two starts, most notably the Arkansas Derby by a convincing four lengths over Silent Tactic despite being last at the half-mile pole. Trainer Todd Pletcher is looking to become only the seventh trainer to win the Derby at least three times.
After that, we have a pair of horses at 6-1 in Commandment and Further Ado. The former has won 4-of-5 races, including one of the aforementioned main Derby prep races - the Florida Derby. Commandment closed strong there to edge out The Puma by a nose. Meanwhile, Further Ado dominated the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes by 11 lengths for his second graded race victory. Jockey John Velazquez has had plenty of success at Churchill Downs, winning the Kentucky Derby three times.
Early Pace Notables
Longshot Pavlovian (30-1 ML) is a likely candidate to try to set the pace, which he did last time out at the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Pavlovian nearly went gate-to-wire at 21-1, but was caught late by Emerging Market and lost by a head. Note that early pace doesn't tend to be favorable here due to often fast fractions, as we haven't seen anyone finish on the board over the last three years inside the top-3 at the quarter or half-mile pole.
Potente is another candidate to press for the early lead following his runner-up finish to So Happy at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in which he was within a head through the beginning of the stretch run before fading in the final furlong. Potente has a Grade 2 win on his resume, but I worry about he'll hold up at the longer distance.
Late Pace Contenders
One horse that has late speed is The Puma, who has been getting publicity in thanks to some rumors that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have an investment stake in the horse. Putting that nugget aside, The Puma came from behind to win the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby before narrowly losing to Commandment last time out.
A bit farther down the odds board with late speed is Incredibolt, who will be taking a step up in class having never been tested at higher than a Grade 3. Nevertheless, he did have an impressive four-length win as the fourth favorite last time out at the Virginia Derby to get into this field. Considering Incredibolt kicked away in the final furlong, the added distance may benefit him.
Potential Darkhorses to Watch in the 2026 Kentucky Derby
Of course, we can't forget about the longshots. After all, Rich Strike won as the longest shot on the board four years ago, and Country House was a 65-1 winner in 2019. Golden Tempo has never finished off the board across four races, with the most notable result being a third place result behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian at the Louisiana Derby. He was beaten by just over a length, was closing strong and could benefit from the extra distance.
One of two Bob Baffert trained horses in the field, Litmus Test has been tested against elite competition, as this will be his fifth Grade 1 race. With that said, he's been better a level down, having won a Grade 2 with a third as well while only having one third place finish at the upper level. Veteran jockey Martin Garcia is looking for his first Derby win in what will be his sixth appearance.
How To Bet On the Kentucky Derby: A Beginner's Guide
Win Bet: This is the most common horse racing bet. You're wagering on a horse strictly to win. Second or dead last both pays zero. Bet on as many horses to win as you like!
Place Bet: Betting on a horse to place means you'll win if the horse(s) you bet on finishes first or second, giving you a better chance of cashing a ticket.
Show Bet: If you bet on a horse to show, you'll win if your horse finishes in the top three. Best saved for horses with longer odds.
Across the Board: If you bet on a horse across the board, you're betting them to win, place and show. If your horse wins, you cash all three! A $2 across the board bet will cost $6. My dad's favorite bet!
Exacta: An exacta wager is betting on the two horses that come in first and second. You can bet on multiple horses to finish first and multiple to finish second to give yourself more chances. Often times, handicappers will do an exacta box with several horses in which they'll win no matter which of their horses comes in first or second. A $1 exacta wager tends to be the most common.
Trifecta: Selecting the top-3 finishers is called a trifecta, and often comes with a big payout due to the degree of difficulty - especially in a 20 horse race. Just like the exacta, you can box the trifecta, although the additional combinations make a lot of bettors choose $.50 trifecta wager.
Superfecta: If you really like to gamble, the superfecta pays out for correctly picking the top-4 finishers in order. Don't be afraid to throw some longshots in your selections, as you'll often see a 50-1 shot or longer sneak into the top-4. A $.10 superfecta wager allows for a wealth of combinations.
Daily Double: If you like to have action on multiple races, the Daily Double pays out for correctly picking horses in two consecutive races. Feel free to pick multiple horses in each race to give yourself more combinations, albeit at a higher cost. You can pair the Kentucky Derby Daily Double with the race before or the race after.
Kentucky Derby Predictions
One of the horses I've briefly mentioned, So Happy, will have a lot of crowd support as trainer Mark Glatt will be making his Kentucky Derby debut less than three months after his wife unexpectedly passed away. Can the 60-year-old Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith capture his third Derby win and eighth Triple Crown Race? So Happy has never finished worse than third across four races and has a Grade 1 and Grade 2 win on his resume. I think he'll be a factor.
Currently the fifth choice on the betting board, I'm not going to pass up the value on Chief Wallabee. It's so easy for bettors to shy away from horses who don't have multiple wins in this talented field. Sure, Chief Wallabee hasn't won since breaking his maiden, but was bested by elite competition in Commandment twice - both by less than a length. My money is on jockey Junior Alvarado to go back-to-back at the Kentucky Derby.
*Bets are updated due to The Puma being scratched.
My Bets
Win: 12
Exacta: 15,18/6,7,8,12,15,18 ($1 Exacta wheel would cost $10)
Trifecta: 8/6,12,15,18/1,6,7,12,15,18 ($0.50 Trifecta wheel would cost $10)
