2023 PBA Strike Derby Best Bets, Expert Picks and Predictions

This article is part of our Betting Advice series.

What is the PBA Strike Derby?

The last event of the 2023 PBA season has been a fan favorite since June of 2020, when it debuted as one of the first live televised American sporting events amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The PBA Strike Derby provides fast-paced, head-to-head competition between the PBA's best strikers. While the MLB's home run derby challenges baseball's best power hitters to hit as many dingers as possible in three minutes, the PBA Strike Derby allows the world's best bowlers two minutes to get as many strikes as possible. While the format has changed slightly each year, the same basic concept still persists: get strikes fast. The rules are simple – two minutes on the clock, most strikes advance. Ties are broken based on who had the longer string of consecutive strikes.

Who is competing in the PBA Strike Derby?

Players earned spots into a standard eight-person bracket based on number of strikes thrown during the 2023 PBA season using Lanetalk statistics.

Defending champion Kyle Troup is the top seed and will take on Marshall Kent, who replaces the injured Jakob Butturff. Second seed Anthony Simonsen will face off against seventh seed Matt Ogle, while third seed E.J. Tackett challenges sixth seed Jesper Svensson. Fourth seed Jason Belmonte and fifth seed Chris Via round out the competition.

2023 PBA Strike Derby Odds

This hypothetical betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. While most PBA events are listed at BetRivers Sportsbook, this one is not expected to be because it was pre-recorded in September.

PBA Strike Derby Betting Tips

Bowling is a sport that requires great concentration, timing and precision, so adding a need for speed changes the game. The derby is a physically-demanding endeavor, as players race to throw up to 20 shots in 120 seconds. It's a different game, so in addition to just considering who the "best" strikers are, I'm looking at a few other variables.

• Seeding: In 2021 and 2022, top qualifiers were given a first-round bye. There will be no byes in 2023, so that is a non-factor. However, the higher seeds do have an advantage, as they are able to watch their opponents bowl first and know what scores they'll have to beat. If their opponent puts up a low number of strikes, the player can take his time, focus on making quality shots and save his energy.
• Age: Looking at 2020 and 2021 results, players in their mid-30s and up had some success in early rounds but seemed to run out of gas and failed to advance beyond the semifinals. At 38, Matt Ogle finally broke that trend in 2022, but he had advantages in seeding that he won't have this year.
• Derby Experience: Kyle Troup proved that experience matters in winning the competition last year. He is the only player who has participated in every derby, and he seemed to change his strategy last year.
• Speed: more attempts mean more opportunities to strike. Some players just have naturally quicker approaches, allowing them to get off more shots without sacrificing their fundamentals.

2023 PBA Strike Derby Predictions

Quarterfinals

• Kent over Troup
• Belmonte over Via
• Simonsen over Ogle
• Tackett over Svensson

In Marshall Kent's one derby appearance in 2021, his strategy was quantity over quality, as he was one of the leaders in attempts but ultimately came in dead last in qualifying, striking just six times in 18 attempts. With this pick, I'm counting on him to execute better, while taking more shots than Kyle Troup. Troup won last year by slowing down his pace and striking at an extremely high rate. I think that rate is unsustainable, and if I could actually get +1400 odds on Kent, I wouldn't be able to pass up that value.

Both Jason Belmonte and Chris Via are participating for the first time, so we don't have the benefit of looking back at past performance. Both players struck at an impressive 60% rate this season. I'll give the edge to Belmo, who has the advantage as the higher seed and has proven again and again that he can rise to the occasion in big moments.

As I mentioned earlier, Matt Ogle won't have the seeding advantage that he had last year. Anthony Simonsen is 13 years younger, has been the fastest competitor (consistently getting off 19 to 20 shots), and has the experience with runner-up finishes in 2020 and 2021.

While E.J. Tackett hasn't made a run in his previous two derby attempts, he did put up strong numbers, only to lose on tie-breakers both times. Jesper Svensson, on the other hand, has only participated once and fell short while only getting off 15 shots.

Semifinals

• Kent over Belmonte
• Simonsen over Tackett

The past few PBA events of the season have been full of surprises. In the PBA League, the Waco Wonders won at +1300 odds. In the PBA Skill Ball Challenge, Dom Barrett (+600) defeated Matt Ogle (+1100) in the final. I'll take Kent to continue the trend of scrappy longshots making a deep run.

How about one last 2023 showdown between the top Chris Schenkel PBA Player of the Year candidates? Wouldn't it be fitting to end in a tie here? Simonsen moves onto his third Strike Derby final, while Tackett loses by tie-breaker for the third time.

Finals

• Simonsen over Kent

Kent falls short in his upset bid, and Simonsen finally breaks through for the win. Simonsen has been the most consistent player all season long, and he'll be determined to go home with the PBA Stike Derby trophy.

2023 PBA Strike Derby TV Schedule

The event was pre-recorded and will air on FOX on Sunday, October 22nd (check local listings for time).