This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Soccer series.
Tuesday's single-game early slate is the last of the Round of 16 matches, with Spain taking on Morocco. Spain are heavy 61 percent favorites with 1.70 implied goals in what is expected to be a one-sided match. Still, Morocco have some interesting pieces and the implied total for the match sits below 2.50.
CASH GAME STRATEGY
I feel like it's hard to start anywhere other than Dani Olmo ($28), he isn't even the highest-salary player on the slate and he has a rock-solid floor. Olmo has consistently taken the lion's share of set pieces and has been on the pitch for nearly every competitive minute Spain have played. Add to that his +275 goal-scoring odds and he's nearly a cash-game lock. Alvaro Morata ($30) has the best goal-scoring odds at +150, but my preferred pivot, if you want to fade Olmo, would be Ferran Torres, who has +200 goal-scoring odds, and could steal a piece of those set pieces. Gavi ($19) and Pedri ($16) are both worth mentioning, though Pedri is likely the stronger cash play at the discount and with the chance to take some set pieces.
Morocco earned just three corner kicks in the group stage and Hakim Ziyech ($27) took two of them, though at a near-max salary it's hard to justify spending up for the winger. Youssef En-Nesyri ($19) has the best goal-scoring odds for Morocco at +400 but it's still hard to justify him in cash. It's a similar story for Sofiane Boufal ($14) even at such a steep discount it's hard to chase 2.4-floor points across the group stage, especially when Boufal isn't likely to go a full 90.
Achraf Hakimi ($19) is worth mentioning but paying up at defense for a heavy underdog is a tough prospect, especially with Jordi Alba ($19) at an identical favorite, while likely to play as a winger more than a defender. Dani Carvajal ($14) might be a more appealing option at a heavy discount, though he is certainly more defensive than Alba. Unai Simon ($17) is actually priced lower than Bono ($18) despite clean sheet chances approaching 50 percent making it impossible to ignore Simon as an option in the Superstar slot. Spain aren't a team to send shots randomly flying in, making it even tougher to stomach Bono, his save upside is limited, and his clean sheet chances are slim-to-none.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
Morata is a weird one, this is a fantastic spot for Spain's best goal-scoring threat, but his utilization will likely be sky-high. To get away from him I'm looking towards Olmo instead, whose +275 goal-scoring odds are only third among Spain's projected starters. Gavi is also worth considering, while he has +400 goal-scoring odds, his combination with Olmo could see him build a heavy floor even if Spain struggle to score. I mentioned it in the cash game section but Unai Simon as the cheaper of the two goalkeepers with a 46 percent chance at a clean sheet is impossible to ignore, especially in the superstar (captain, 1.6x) slot.
Spain have shown inconsistencies at the World Cup, including a loss to Japan, so there are pieces to like with Morocco as well. Youssef En-Nesyri's +400 goal-scoring odds in the superstar slot combined with Nayef Aguerd ($14) and Bono alongside the floor plays from the Spanish side could target a 1-0 Moroccan upset. Romain Saiss ($18) has had plenty to do for Morocco and with Spain's penchant to dribble and play short passes, he could tally up the volume in clearances and tackles, making him another interesting play, though he is once again a high-priced defender on a heavy underdog.
