This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Manchester City have close to a 90-percent chance to win according to the odds, so that's where the majority of rosters will lean. Erling Haaland is -400 to score one goal after being -310 to score midweek when he bagged a brace and finished with nine shots en route to 35.7 DraftKings points. Unlike Wednesday's slate which involved six other matches and big favorites, Saturday only has three other games. Everything will be decided by Haaland.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Aston Villa vs. AFC Bournemouth
- 10:00 am: Brentford vs. Ipswich Town
- 10:00 am: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Wolverhampton
- 10:00 am: Manchester City vs. Southampton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Erling Haaland (MCI vs. SOU, $11,000): You cannot fade Haaland in cash games because he'll be on more than 80 percent of rosters. You can go against everyone, but even if he doesn't score, he could still get a 10-plus point floor against what has been the worst team in the league.
In tournaments, you might be able to get away with fading him as long as he doesn't score more than one goal. Haaland hasn't scored in his last three leagues matches, though that just means he'll be even hungrier to hit the back of the net.
Omari Hutchinson (IPS at BRE, $5,400): You can't play every Man City player, and if you play Haaland, you can't have both Savinho and Phil Foden unless you sacrifice the rest of your team. Hutchinson is cheap enough against a team that will allow floor points. He's close to a lock for 90 minutes and while he has duds in him, especially away from home, you can say the same for every other forward on the slate.
Outside of Savinho, the only forward with a real floor is Matheus Cunha ($7,900) and he might be too expensive for a trip to Brighton. Georginio Rutter ($8,200) has shown almost no floor and never goes more than 75 minutes. Brighton teammate Evan Ferguson ($3,800) could be surprisingly popular since he's cheap, in a good spot and has +160 odds to score. He also won't go more than 70 minutes, but he has more upside than almost every other forward. Kevin Schade ($4,600) is in a similar range if you're not comfortable with Ferguson.
If you're fading Haaland in tournaments, Ollie Watkins ($9,800) is the logical pivot at home against Bournemouth. He's rested after coming off the bench midweek and has scored in four of his last five league starts.
MIDFIELDERS
Phil Foden (MCI vs. SOU, $10,300): There's not a massive difference between Foden and Savinho, but the former took corners with Ilkay Gundogan ($8,400) on Tuesday and is more likely to score. Savinho still hasn't scored for City and while his floor is great, even without sets, I want goals from my expensive players, especially in tournaments. Maybe most relevant for Foden is that both Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku are injured, so he could go a full 90 once again after struggling for consistent minutes earlier in the season.
Mikkel Damsgaard (BRE vs. IPS, $5,200): Damsgaard is too cheap in this spot and has gone at least 89 minutes in each of his last three starts. Even if Mathias Jensen is on the bench Saturday, I doubt he'll play more than 10 minutes following a lengthy absence. Damsgaard has a 10-point floor and is in play for an assist with center-backs Ethan Pinnock and Nathan Collins always looking to score from set pieces.
Kaoru Mitoma (BHA vs. WOL, $5,900): If you want a more balanced roster and decide to fade two of the top Man City players, Mitoma is a great tournament route. He hasn't shown massive upside this season, but Wolves have been prone to mistakes defensively allowing the most goals in the league. In comparison, his teammate Rutter is $2,300 more expensive and I think Mitoma is just as likely to score or assist with a better floor. Also on Brighton, Ferdi Kadioglu ($5,200) went his first full 90 last week and people don't like playing full-backs who are listed as midfielders.
It's always smart to back the less popular Man City players on slates like this. Matheus Nunes and a couple defenders came through midweek. Bernardo Silva ($9,000) and Ilkay Gundogan ($8,400) will be largely overlooked because of their prices, especially the former, while Gundogan is worth consideration because of sets. Mateo Kovacic ($7,100) scored a brace against Fulham a couple weeks ago.
If you don't want to play games with City or think Bryan Mbeumo ($9,600) is more likely for 20-plus points than everyone but Haaland, he seems like a great pivot. His price has taken a jump in the past month, but that's because he's been really good.
DEFENDERS
Leif Davis (IPS at BRE, $6,300): You don't need an expensive defender in cash games if every Man City player you have scores 20-plus points. Davis should be around his usual 10-point floor, but he also has upside to reach a floor higher than 15 points if the game goes the right way. I like Lucas Digne ($5,600) more than usual this week since Ian Maatsen started midweek, but Davis is still the safe route.
There's not much else to like on this slate since Josko Gvardiol and Rico Lewis are both over $6,000. You could use one of them with one of the cheaper City center-backs in Ruben Dias or Manuel Akanji. Pinnock ($3,700) and Collins ($3,300) also fall into this range with maybe as good of a chance to score but worse clean-sheet odds.
There's a slight chance Harrison Clarke ($3,000) starts at right-back for Ipswich Town. He averaged two crosses per 90 minutes in the Championship, but he's still a cheap full-back.
GOALKEEPER
Sam Johnstone (WOL at BHA, $3,900): Johnstone might be the most popular goalkeeper on the slate since he's the cheapest one not going against Manchester City. Wolves also turned to a more defensive three center-back look in last match and Brighton have already struggled to score against a low block (see: 0-0 result against Ipswich). If you somehow have money, Ederson ($6,000) is there with close to a 50-percent chance for a clean sheet.
