This article is part of our MMA Barometer series.
In an unexpected move earlier this week, T.J. Dillashaw announced he would be leaving Sacramento-based Team Alpha Male (TAM) to train with Elevation Fight Team (Elevation) in Colorado. Dillashaw has been with TAM since the very beginning of his career, but now will find himself in unfamiliar territory training in Colorado. Dillashaw did split his camp between Colorado and TAM for his last victory over Renan Barao, but now he will devote 100 percent of his time to training in Colorado.
Part of the reason for Dillashaw moving his camp to Elevation is so he can be closer to his head coach, Duane Ludwig, who has an academy in Colorado as well. Ludwig has a well-documented beef with TAM leader Urijah Faber, and some believe that played into Dillashaw's decision to abandon TAM in order to be with the head coach who helped him obtain a UFC title. Dillashaw claims that is not the case, and it seems as if he left TAM on cordial terms with the team.
The major impact this could have would be on Dillashaw's ability as a fighter. Ludwig is a phenomenal coach, but it is hard to replace the benefit Dillashaw would gain during camps by sparring with the likes of Faber, Chad Mendes, and Joseph Benavidez. The iron-sharpens-iron mentality at TAM was undoubtedly beneficial to Dillashaw, as TAM has arguably the best stable of lighter weight fighters in the world. Elevation has very good fighters in Matt Brown, Neil Magny, and Brandon Thatch, but does not have the same elite-level fighters near Dillashaw's weight class. It will be interesting to see the impact this move has on the Dillashaw as a fighter, as this was a curious time for the decision. The current bantamweight champion has an incredible challenge in front of him January 17, 2016 when he defends his UFC title against Dominick Cruz.
Dillashaw claims this move is in his best interests as a fighter. He will be able to stay in one place and train because the MusclePharm training center in Colorado has an expansive facility in which fighters can both train and recover. Dillashaw is also reportedly being paid to train with Elevation. This still leaves the question, can the benefit of a new facility and a familiar head coach replace the benefit of training with elite lighter weight fighters day in and day out?
As always, below is your MMA barometer with rising, falling, and check status fighters.
Rising
Sage Northcutt
An obvious choice based on his debut performance in the UFC at UFC 192, 19-year-old Sage Northcutt is a budding star in the UFC. Northcutt is 6-0 as a professional mixed martial artist with every win coming by either KO/TKO or submission. At UFC 192 he won by TKO in just 57 seconds in his UFC debut. I hesitate to jump on the bandwagon and make claims that he could be the next Georges St. Pierre, as Kenny Florian of UFC Tonight stated earlier this week, but he nonetheless seems to be a promising prospect. Northcutt possesses above-average striking skills and also excellent wrestling ability. Northcutt will most likely continue to put on great performances for his next two or three fights, but then the real tests will begin as he starts to fight higher level opponents. As an extremely young fighter, it could be difficult for Northcutt to compete with top-15 fighters in the lightweight division, but his performances thus far make it so it would not be a surprise if Northcutt becomes "the next big thing" in the UFC. Northcutt took virtually no damage in his last contest with Francisco Trevino, so hopefully he has a quick turnaround and can put on another exciting performance for UFC fans in the near future. His next few fights will give him a good opportunity to continue to compile victories by finishing fights, which will quickly move him up the UFC lightweight rankings.
Next Fight: TBA
Joe Duffy
Joe Duffy has seemed like a world-beater up to this point in his UFC career. In both of his fights in the UFC, Duffy has finished the fight in the first round. He possesses a well-rounded skill set, as one win was by KO/TKO and the other was by submission. Duffy took a three-year hiatus from mixed martial arts to pursue a professional boxing career, where he amassed a record of seven wins with no losses. This proves that he has dangerous hands to go with his tricky submission game, which has allowed him to achieve submission wins in 10 of his 14 professional mixed martial arts victories. Duffy's claim to fame is he is the only person to defeat Conor McGregor in the last five years. He submitted McGregor in the first round via arm-triangle choke at Cage Warriors 39, and that proves how dangerous of a fighter Duffy can be. His next fight will be a good test against UFC veteran and No. 13-ranked UFC lightweight Dustin Poirier. Duffy is undefeated since returning to mixed martial arts, and based on his recent performances he has a good chance to defeat Poirier on October 24. Hopefully he can continue to win fights to set up an eventual rematch when McGregor moves up to the UFC lightweight division.
Next fight: Dustin Poirier, UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Duffy (October 24, 2015)
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker is currently riding a three-fight win streak in the Octagon. His two most recent victories have come at middleweight, where he moved after five fights in the UFC welterweight division. Whittaker believes he will be most effective at middleweight because he doesn't have to deal with the weight cut to 170 pounds. Whittaker seems to have known what was best for him, as both of his fights at middleweight have come via KO/TKO. His middleweight debut was particularly impressive, as he halted Clint Hester's four-fight win streak and outclassed Hester, who is known for his boxing, on the feet. Whittaker also displayed a great chin by eating some big shots from Hester and ultimately finished Hester standing up in the second round. Similarly, against Brad Tavares, Whittaker displayed his power by defeating Tavares via KO/TKO in the first round. Whittaker combines his excellent stand up skills with 92% takedown defense, per UFC.com. He will likely need to display his chin and his striking ability in his upcoming fight against Uriah Hall at UFC 193 in his homeland of Australia. Whittaker was originally supposed to fight Michael Bisping, but after Bisping pulled out with an injury, Hall stepped in as a replacement. Hall is coming off of a spectacular KO/TKO victory over then-No. 6-ranked UFC middleweight Gegard Mousasi. This is a dangerous fight for Whittaker, as Hall possesses some of the most fearsome striking in all of mixed martial arts. However, Whittaker has proven he can take a punch at middleweight and has the power to turn the lights out on any fighter in the division. Whoever wins, this fight will be a real treat for UFC fans and should be a stand-up war that does not make it to a decision.
Next Fight: Uriah Hall, UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm (November 14, 2015)
Check Status
Alexander Gustafsson
Even after going 1-3 in his last four fights, Gustafsson is still undoubtedly near the top of the heap in the UFC light heavyweight division. Two of Gustafsson's losses over that time period have come in title contests against Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Each time Gustafsson took the champion to the brink and lost hard fought decisions. Gustafsson put forth a valiant effort against (and arguably defeated) Jones, and he was the first man to really beat up Daniel Cormier in the Octagon. After his two gutsy championship performances, the UFC will likely not hesitate to give Gustafsson a rematch in the near future against either Jones or Cormier. Gustafsson will pose major problems to any fighter he faces in the light heavyweight division. He possesses huge knockout power, as displayed against Jimmy Manuwa in March 2014. This goes to show just how good Daniel Cormier's chin is, as Gustafsson had him badly hurt from a knee followed by a left hook, but Cormier survived in their October 3 bout. Gustafsson has a well-rounded skillset with his elite striking skills and solid wrestling ability. He has done an excellent job of defending takedowns from both Jones and Cormier and has even been successful in unexpectedly taking both of them down. Gustafsson will look to get back on the winning track in his next fight after a two-fight losing skid, and hopefully he gets a chance to avenge his loss to Anthony Johnson. Should he and Johnson clash in the near future, the winner would be in good position for a title shot against the winner of (presumably) Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Ryan Bader is also in good position for a title shot, but Dana White and the UFC brass seem to be disenchanted with Bader's style, which generally leads to decision victories. If Gustafsson can win one or two fights in a row he should find himself in good position to get another crack at the UFC light heavyweight title.
Next Fight: TBA
Falling
Rashad Evans
After an almost two-year absence from the Octagon, Rashad Evans had a disappointing showing at UFC 192 against Ryan Bader. Evans is one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC, so it is odd that he was plagued by the same problems he faced before his devastating knee injury. He seemed to have a hard time getting in a rhythm at UFC 192 and could not pull the trigger in his fight against Bader. Evans seemed hesitant, and Bader took advantage on his way to a unanimous decision victory. "Suga" is getting towards the end of his career, and if he does not find a way to add more tools to his game, it will be difficult for him to compete with elite fighters in the UFC light heavyweight division. His athleticism has waned in recent years, and he can no longer rely on that athleticism to beat other fighters to the punch and get takedowns at will. Evans is enough of a veteran to avoid being finished, but his future in the sport is in serious jeopardy based on his most recent performance. A good fight to test Evans but to also give him a chance at getting back on the winning track would be No. 8-ranked UFC light heavyweight Jimi Manuwa. However, should Evans lose his next fight it may be time for him to call it a career and ride off into the sunset after a solid UFC career which included a light heavyweight title.
Next Fight: TBA
Johny Hendricks
Even after being inactive since March, Johny Hendricks finds his stock falling. His most recent struggle came prior to UFC 192 when he was hospitalized while attempting to make weight the night before weigh-ins. Hendricks allegedly came into fight week 27 pounds above the welterweight limit, and his body essentially shut down, as it was pushed to the limit to shed the weight. Following the mishap Dana White said he is not interested at seeing Hendricks fight at welterweight in the future. Hendricks said he would like to remain at welterweight, but left the door open for a move to the UFC middleweight division. This would be a major problem for Hendricks because of the size disadvantage he would face at middleweight. Even though he could still rely on his NCAA championship wrestling credentials, Hendricks would most likely not be nearly as effective in the striking department at middleweight. He is only listed at 5-foot-9, which would put him at a major reach disadvantage against the elite of the division like Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold who are listed at 6-3 and 6-2 respectively. His size disadvantage could work against him in the grappling department as well, especially against the likes of Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and former world wrestling champion Yoel Romero. Should Hendricks choose to move to middleweight, he will have a difficult time remaining in title contention like he had been able to for the last few years in the welterweight division.
Next Fight: TBA
Roy Nelson
"Big Country" finds himself in a difficult position after losing five of his last six fights dating back to 2013. His lone win came via devastating knockout against an over-the-hill Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira. Nelson is most likely not in danger of being cut from the UFC because most of his fights are wildly entertaining, but the major problem is most fighters seem to have figured out Nelson's strategy. Nelson is extremely durable, but if opponents are able to avoid his devastating overhand right, they are generally able to cruise to decision victories. In his last fight in Japan against Josh Barnett, he showed added wrinkles to his game by mixing in takedowns, but Nelson is at a physical disadvantage against most opponents and he doesn't have the ability to remain effective over the course of an entire fight. Nelson is in a grey area because recently he has not shown the ability to compete with the elite of the division, but he fights at a higher level than a traditional "gate keeper" in the UFC. Nelson should be able to defeat lower echelon fighters, but when he fights any opponents in the top-ten, he will most likely be durable enough to survive the entire fight while losing a decision. Nelson, much like Rashad Evans, is an aging fighter and it may be in his best interests to call it a career to avoid taking unnecessary punishment which could affect him later in life. Nelson's success from here on out will most likely be based on whether the UFC decides to use him in a "gate keeper" status or if they want to continue to allow Nelson to test himself against top fighters in the division.
Next Fight: TBA
