This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Black Desert Championship
Black Desert Resort Golf Course
Ivins, UT
The PGA Tour heads to Utah for the inaugural edition of the Black Desert Championship.
Before we get to that, a quick history lesson. In an effort to draw more interest from golf fans, the PGA Tour made a change about a decade ago that saw the fall season wrap around into the new year. This change wasn't exactly a popular move with golf fans in general as it brought some confusion along with it, but one positive was that it made the fields in the fall a lot stronger as the middle-tier guys especially, didn't want to lose a lot of ground before the new year started, so they felt compelled to play in the fall. We also saw our fair share of the upper-tier guys as well. The PGA Tour went back to the old calendar schedule a couple years back, which was great in my mind because I prefer starting the season in January rather than September, but the big problem with the new schedule is the fields we get as a result. There's no real incentive for the top players to play in the fall and the result has been predictable. I won't get into it right now, but this field is about as bad as I've ever seen, and I've been doing this for nearly 25 years. The fall season is meant to give the new guys a chance to get acclimated to the PGA Tour and for journeymen to finally get a crack at winning something, but every now and then you are going to run into a tough spot, like we have this week. As luck would have it, we're also on a new course this week, so if ever there was a time to find a long shot, this would be it.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.
FAVORITES
Keith Mitchell (18-1)
The co-favorite last week is now the clear favorite this week after nearly winning the Sanderson Farms Championship. It's possible that Mitchell struggles after coming so close to the win in Jackson, but considering the strength of the field, Mitchell will likely see this as a huge opportunity to make-up for his late blunder.
Seamus Power (25-1)
While there aren't any big names in the field, there are some guys that have had success over the past couple years and Power is one of them. Power has played well over the past few months, missing just one cut since the end of June and posting a top-10 at a signature event in August. He also played pretty well in Jackson finishing T11.
Kurt Kitayama (25-1)
Kitayama had a great 2023 season, but he failed to back that up in 2024. He did have some moments, but he definitely failed in taking the next step after winning a signature event the previous year. Kitayama hasn't played much since the summer; in fact, he's only teed it up once since the end of July. Perhaps he used this time off to find his game, but there will likely be some rust this week.
THE NEXT TIER
Beau Hossler (30-1)
Hossler lost in the playoff at the Sanderson Farms, and that could have an adverse effect on him, but I think he'll use that as a springboard into this week. Hossler has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he's come close a few times. As long as he's not dwelling on what could have been, he should be fine.
Chris Kirk (33-1)
With six career wins on the PGA Tour, Kirk is probably the most accomplished player in the field that's still near his prime. Kirk is wrapping up his most profitable season on the PGA Tour and perhaps this will be the icing on the cake. The issue for Kirk is that he hasn't played since the TOUR Championship in August, so there is bound to be rust, but getting 33-1 against this field seems like a gift.
Erik van Rooyen (33-1)
We're looking for guys that know how to win, especially against a field of players that have little to no experience winning at this level. Van Rooyen has won twice on the PGA Tour, and he knows how to get it done in the fall. He's not had a great 2024 season, but he's not so far off that a win this week would be a shocker.
LONG SHOTS
Daniel Berger (50-1)
I had Berger in my long shots section a week ago and if not for a 71 on Saturday, Berger may have won. He's slowly getting back to the guy we knew from a couple years ago and pretty soon his odds will be in the 30s, then the 20s, so this is likely your last chance to get a big number on him. He was over 100-1 in Jackson and one good outing cut his odds in half.
Nick Taylor (80-1)
It's crazy to me that in a field like this, a guy that won earlier this year and has won in each of the past two seasons, is sitting at 80-1. Sure, he's been terrible for a few months now, but he's also had a lot of time off to work on his game. He might very well come out looking like the guy who won the Phoenix Open earlier this year and you're sitting there with a ticket at 80-1.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-Chosen Pick: Keith Mitchell - He's the favorite and he almost won last week, seems like a good combination when searching for a player in a field that doesn't have very many options. As long as he can get past his near miss, he should again be in contention.
Moderately-Chosen Pick: Chris Kirk - Kirk is one of the more accomplished golfers in the field and he's probably looking at this as a huge opportunity to get another win. We haven't seen him in a while, but that doesn't mean that his game is off. He might come out on fire after not playing for over a month.
Lightly-Chosen Pick: Daniel Berger - Berger is coming. He might not get the results this fall, but sooner or later, he's going to get back to where he was prior to his injury. I think he'll make a serious run in Utah and then we'll look back and wonder how his odds were so high this week.
Buyer Beware: Kurt Kitayama - There was a slow build-up to Kitayama's 2023 season and by the time he had his success, it didn't come as a huge surprise. With that said, we haven't seen that form from him in quite a while and it doesn't feel like he's about to break through with another win at the moment. It's probably best to just wait out Kitayama at this point.
FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Chris Kirk ($11,300)
Middle Range: Erik van Rooyen ($10,300)
Lower Range: Daniel Berger ($9,400)
