Dawson Knox

Knox’s 2022 season was similar to his 2021 campaign, except for a noticeable drop in touchdowns from nine to six. He once again dressed for 15 games, finishing six targets, one catch and 70 yards short of his previous year’s totals. The 6-foot-4 tight end has red zone chemistry with star quarterback Josh Allen, but since Knox has yet to break 50 catches or 600 yards in any of his four NFL seasons, his fantasy value is tied primarily to his touchdown total. His 2022 red zone target total was disappointing in that regard, as Knox dropped from 19 such looks in 2021 to just 11, which is only one more red zone target than he saw as a part-time player in 2020. Another production dip seems likely in 2023 after the Bills spent their first-round pick on TE Dalton Kincaid, who had 1,400 yards and 16 TDs over his final two seasons at Utah. The rookie may not take over the starting job but probably won't need long to cut into Knox's snaps/routes/targets. Even if Kincaid mostly plays in two-TE sets, his presence could mean more blocking snaps and fewer routes run for Knox.

Knox broke out in his third NFL campaign last season, setting career highs across the board. He ranked just 20th among tight ends in targets (71) despite missing only two games, but Knox’s 19 red-zone looks tied for fourth at the position, and he tied for the league lead among tight ends with nine touchdowns. There’s little reason to think the Bills will change Knox’s role this season, even after they signed O.J. Howard, considering their approach last season produced 28.4 points per game and an AFC East crown. Knox’s red-zone chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen is apparent, but there remain plenty of mouths to feed between the 20s in an offense that likes to take advantage of Allen’s arm strength by pushing the ball downfield to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Knox offers a nice blend of size and speed, with a 4.57 40 at 254 pounds, but given his dependence on touchdowns, he could struggle to match the consistency of some similarly regarded tight ends. That’s especially true in PPR formats, even if he has big games here and there.

Knox was a surprise third-round pick in 2019, after wrapping up his career at Ole Miss with 39 catches for 605 yards and no touchdowns. The Bills apparently were impressed by his blocking, along with a reported 4.57-second 40-yard dash from his pro day. Two years later, Knox has started 18 of his 27 games, typically playing about 60 percent of offensive snaps when healthy. However, he's made more than his fair share of mistakes, including 10 drops on 50 targets as a rookie, followed by two fumbles (and four drops) on just 24 catches in 2020. While QB Josh Allen has elevated Buffalo's wide receivers, the team hasn’t gotten much from its tight ends in recent years. There was no big offseason addition to correct that problem, though it is possible Jacob Hollister takes snaps from Knox, particularly on passing downs. On the other hand, Knox still has a degree of breakout appeal, given his size/speed combo and likely starting role in a high-powered offense.

A third-round pick last year, Knox was second among rookie tight ends in snaps (659) and third in targets, waltzing his way to a starting job after Tyler Kroft suffered a broken foot in OTAs. The Ole Miss product finished his college career with 605 yards and nary a touchdown, struggling to find targets behind A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Knox's impressive pro day (4.57 40), 254-pound frame and reputation for strong blocking inspired the Bills to take a shot, and while the rookie perhaps held his own as a starter, the lack of polish was evident (14.3 percent drop rate). He did at least show some big-play ability with five catches for 160 yards on 11 targets traveling 20plus yards downfield. The Bills didn't bring in serious competition, and Knox figures to enter this season atop the depth chart, potentially even handling a three-down role. In terms of targets, he'll presumably fall in somewhere behind Stefon Diggs and John Brown, and possibly behind Cole Beasley and Devin Singletary.