This article is part of our Corner Report series.
This article will go game by game for the wild-card round slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage.
Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
SF vs SEA
SAN FRANCISCO WIDE RECEIVERS
Brandon Aiyuk couldn't get much going against the Seahawks in the previous two games, but it still seems like the matchups should be fine enough for him against Seattle boundary corners who are big and fast but not less graceful the more laterally they have to run. Tariq Woolen can shut down one sideline vertically, but Mike Jackson is less punctual on the other side and can probably be set up somehow, be it by Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, though Samuel's exact defensive
This article will go game by game for the wild-card round slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage.
Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
SF vs SEA
SAN FRANCISCO WIDE RECEIVERS
Brandon Aiyuk couldn't get much going against the Seahawks in the previous two games, but it still seems like the matchups should be fine enough for him against Seattle boundary corners who are big and fast but not less graceful the more laterally they have to run. Tariq Woolen can shut down one sideline vertically, but Mike Jackson is less punctual on the other side and can probably be set up somehow, be it by Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, though Samuel's exact defensive matchups are usually unique because of his hybrid functions. Jauan Jennings is a capable player but it's hard to see how he could separate in this one.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
SEATTLE WIDE RECEIVERS
D.K. Metcalf has the traits that would normally warrant shadow coverage from Charvarius Ward, who is too big to ideally match against Tyler Lockett anyway. That's a tough matchup for Metcalf if so, but he's not a player easily counted out. Lockett still has the easier task, though he can expect to see coverage rolled his way with Ward able to do a lot of lifting on his own.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: D.K. Metcalf
Even: Tyler Lockett
JAC vs LAC
JACKSONVILLE WIDE RECEIVERS
Christian Kirk gets a tough matchup against standout slot corner Bryce Callahan, which is a major concern for a Jaguars passing game that doesn't have obvious alternatives. Zay Jones and Marvin Jones aren't likely to make any big plays or provide consistent gains running against the off coverage of Michael Davis and Asante Samuel, who have the added recent benefit of Joey Bosa joining Khalil Mack to make one of the most feared pass rushes. This is a difficult spot for the Jacksonville passing game.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones
Even: Zay Jones
CHARGERS WIDE RECEIVERS
Keenan Allen should be able to make consistent gains against Tre Herndon in the slot, but projecting any other Chargers receivers for production is a little tougher. Joshua Palmer probably can't do much against Tyson Campbell, and even the more beatable Darious Williams has done a good job outside lately. Palmer is much bigger than Williams though, and might be able to bully him at the catch point even if he can't get open. DeAndre Carter probably needs a busted coverage or just bad play on the part of the defense to get open.
Upgrade: Keenan Allen
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter
BUF vs MIA
BUFFALO WIDE RECEIVERS
Short of cutting the other route runners loose, there's nothing the Dolphins could conceivably do to keep Stefon Diggs from getting open here. Xavien Howard is pretty much dust and Kader Kohou isn't suited to playing the boundary for extended stretches. The problem is that also goes for Keion Crossen, who steps in on the boundary when Kohou goes into the slot in three-wide. Kohou is a problem for Isaiah McKenzie but no one else. Gabe Davis is much bigger than Kohou and especially Crossen.
Upgrade: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Isaiah McKenzie
MIAMI WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have major talent advantages over the corners they'll face in this game, but those corners will have so much more structural support that it still looks like a discouraging projection for the entire Miami offense. Quarterback Skylar Thompson really can't do much, and the Bills secondary is the best-coached in the NFL. I'm calling the matchup 'even' because Hill and Waddle would win constantly in true one-on-one situations, but the overall terrain is hostile.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
MIN vs NYG
MINNESOTA WIDE RECEIVERS
Justin Jefferson drew 16 targets on 71 snaps and caught 12 for 133 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 16. That qualified as a 'good-case' outcome for the Giants. Granted, they'll CB1 Adoree' Jackson back finally and he has to be better than the corners Jefferson faced last time, but it still doesn't matter. Jackson is good but not great, and his return could kind of backfire on the Giants if they give his rep less help under the reasoning that he can handle more than the backup Jefferson saw previously. Jackson is better than the other corners Jefferson saw, but probably no more capable of actually dictating outcomes against an obvious Hall of Fame talent like Jefferson. Adam Thielen has seen his efficiency decline but not much more than Kirk Cousins' has, and Cousins has no good reason to fail against a defense like this. Thielen's main matchup would be Fabian Moreau if Jackson is back and lined up on Jefferson. Moreau is athletic but has never played well. Slot corner Darnay Holmes is probably about equal to K.J. Osborn.
Upgrade: Justin Jefferson
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn
GIANTS WIDE RECEIVERS
Darius Slayton is way too fast for these corners, so the Vikings will need to come up with a containment measure against his speed – basically constant help over the top – or they'll risk watching him run away from the defense at some point. That's a concerning detail for the Vikings, because Richie James (slot) and Isaiah Hodgins (mostly outside) have stepped up plenty in the past month. It's still preferable to give up chain-moving receptions to James and Hodgins than long-range touchdowns to Slayton, but it's not easy as a defense to just watch the chains move over and over, even if you understand it's preferable to the alternative.
Upgrade: Darius Slayton, Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A
CIN vs BAL
CINCINNATI WIDE RECEIVERS
The Ravens haven't seemed to use Marlon Humphrey in a shadow role even in weeks where they move him around, but even that was a departure from the prior 2022 policy of almost always lining up Humphrey on the right side of the defense. Humphrey is capable of playing a shadow assignment and even just moving him around makes it a little more difficult for the Bengals to avoid him, but Baltimore has already had success against Joe Burrow this year so they might not want to change their approach much. Ja'Marr Chase might avoid Humphrey's coverage, in other words, but it has been difficult anyway to this point with that already the case. Tee Higgins also struggled against Baltimore this year, so the Bengals might need to unveil a new trick in their scheme to break this gridlock. Tyler Boyd has had better results so far running mostly against Kyle Hamilton but it's difficult to see any reliable advantage there for Boyd.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
BALTIMORE WIDE RECEIVERS
It's difficult for anyone to produce in the Greg Roman offense, especially receivers, and especially receivers who have to catch passes from any non-Lamar Jackson option. With that said, the wide receiver talent is almost as much of an issue here as the scheme and quarterback. Demarcus Robinson is now down to a brutal 6.1 yards per target on a 64.0 percent catch rate – the predictable result of his overexposure in a starting role. Sammy Watkins is the only serious threat between himself, Robinson and James Proche, There isn't a single cornerback rotation in the league against which Robinson or Proche would ever have the advantage, but Watkins might be able to do something especially if he sees garbage-time opportunity. If Robinson or Proche produce it's basically because of indifference from the defense.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: James Proche
Even: Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson
TB vs DAL
TAMPA BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
Mike Evans could conceivably see a shadow assignment from Trevon Diggs but (A) that would be a departure from previous policy for Dallas, who more so have played Diggs on one side all year and (B) Diggs is probably not cause for concern to a player as good as Evans. Still, it's almost certainly easier to beat Trayvon Mullen or Nahshon Wright. There's no reason to think DaRon Bland is an obstacle for Chris Godwin in the slot, but it's possible that Bland is a little more competent at this point than Mullen or Wright. There should be opportunities for at least one and more likely both of Godwin and Evans, but if Julio Jones or Russell Gage are one-on-one with Mullen or Wright it could make them the preferred target on the rep in question.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage
DALLAS WIDE RECEIVERS
The Buccaneers tried to match up Carlton Davis on Ja'Marr Chase in Week 15, but it's not clear if the goal of that was to use Davis as a shadow specifically or just as much about keeping Sean Murphy-Bunting away from Chase. With Davis and Jamel Dean active outside and Antoine Winfield in the slot, it's possible Murphy-Bunting won't play much and the Buccaneers might not feel the need to hide Dean like they might have with Murphy-Bunting in Week 15. This is all to say, Davis might get a shadow assignment against CeeDee Lamb but also might not, because Tampa might feel about equally comfortable between Davis and Dean. None of the matchups are easy for Lamb – Dean can shut down the sideline and especially the vertical game on the sideline, while Davis is comfortable playing a press-heavy kind of coverage in the intermediate and underneath. Winfield is tough from the slot, meanwhile, so it doesn't seem like Dallas can do much to free up Lamb – he just needs to beat good players. Michael Gallup and Noah Brown are not imposing to corners like these.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Michael Gallup, Noah Brown
Even: CeeDee Lamb
