This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
Week 1 was a mess with quarterbacks showing inconsistent play with the average projection being off by 6.5 points. This week, the values are down to 4.7 points off. The projections sort of felt like projections. Here are the results from week two.
PLAYER | VEGAS LINE | PASS ATT | HYBRID | ROTOWIRE | AVG | ACTUAL | HYBRID DIFF | ROTOWIRE DIFF | AVG DIFF |
Aaron Rodgers | 20.0 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 22.4 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
Alex Smith | 18.6 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Andy Dalton | 16.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.9 | 16.0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.6 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.9 | 16.0 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Blake Bortles | 15.9 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 13.4 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 6.2 |
Brian Hoyer | 14.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 |
Jacoby Brissett | 16.6 | 10.9 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 16.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 7.2 |
Cam Newton | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 19.8 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 |
Carson Palmer | 15.1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Carson Wentz | 15.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 24.8 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 8.8 |
Dak Prescott | 18.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
Derek Carr |
Week 1 was a mess with quarterbacks showing inconsistent play with the average projection being off by 6.5 points. This week, the values are down to 4.7 points off. The projections sort of felt like projections. Here are the results from week two.
PLAYER | VEGAS LINE | PASS ATT | HYBRID | ROTOWIRE | AVG | ACTUAL | HYBRID DIFF | ROTOWIRE DIFF | AVG DIFF |
Aaron Rodgers | 20.0 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 22.4 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
Alex Smith | 18.6 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Andy Dalton | 16.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.9 | 16.0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.6 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.9 | 16.0 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Blake Bortles | 15.9 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 13.4 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 6.2 |
Brian Hoyer | 14.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 |
Jacoby Brissett | 16.6 | 10.9 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 16.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 7.2 |
Cam Newton | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 19.8 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 |
Carson Palmer | 15.1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Carson Wentz | 15.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 24.8 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 8.8 |
Dak Prescott | 18.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
Derek Carr | 15.3 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 21.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 5.2 |
Deshaun Watson | 12.1 | x | 12.1 | 11.9 | 16.0 | 17.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 |
DeShone Kizer | 12.2 | x | 12.2 | 9.6 | 16.0 | 1.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 14.1 |
Drew Brees | 17.0 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 20.3 | 16.0 | 22.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 6.2 |
Eli Manning | 15.0 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
Jameis Winston | 15.5 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 3.6 |
Jared Goff | 14.9 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 16.0 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
Jay Cutler | 16.8 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
Joe Flacco | 14.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 14.7 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
Josh McCown | 14.0 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 16.0 | 15.7 | 0.9 | 11.2 | 0.3 |
Kirk Cousins | 17.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 |
Marcus Mariota | 18.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 18.9 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 |
Matt Ryan | 19.9 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 19.9 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 1.1 |
Matthew Stafford | 16.5 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Mike Glennon | 15.9 | 7.8 | 15.9 | 11.4 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 6.0 |
Philip Rivers | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 17.3 | 16.0 | 17.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Russell Wilson | 19.4 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
Tom Brady | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 30.8 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 14.8 |
Trevor Siemian | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 16.0 | 22.6 | 7.2 | 14.4 | 6.6 |
Tyrod Taylor | 19.1 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
Average | 16.5 | 15.5 | 14.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | |||
Standard Deviation | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
The standard RotoWire projections came in first with an averaged projection taking the second spot. The projections were close but I still came in an unacceptable last place.
Where I missed is on the extreme downside (Hoyer, Kizer and Glennon). I am not sure if it is an early season anomaly but for the first two weeks, I haven't gone low enough on some guys. Maybe I shouldn't worry about them because most won't be starting except in super flex leagues. I'm not sure.
Due to some delays with the wide receivers, I couldn't get my projections up before the Thursday night game. My higher than standard projections paid off with Hoyer scoring 26 points.
Besides the downside players, the big misses evened. While I underestimated Brady, the difference was offset by almost nailing McCown's total (15.7 vs 14.9).
I thought I might have a possible answer to my high projections. I only use the weekly point spread and previous season data for the projections estimates (for now). Additionally, the model uses linear regression. I thought maybe at the change at the low and/or high extremes isn't linear.
To test the theory, I went back and found the average quarterback points and pass attempts for the number of points Vegas expected the team to score. Here are the results (min. 10 games at each point total).
While the r-square improved a small bit with a logarithmic best fit line, it's not much (less the 0.01). It's not the improvement I was looking for.
The major factor that might be missing is opposing defensive talent. I know if a team is going to score fewer points; I just don't know if it will be on the ground or the air. Incorporating defensive projections might solve this problem. This possible change will just have to wait a week or two.
Without any quarterback corrections, here are the week projections
Note: No projections for the quarterbacks in the Minnesota-Tampa game with no line and starters not set.
PLAYER | TEAM | PASS ATT | SPREAD | HYBRID | ROTOWIRE | DIFF |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 20.3 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 20.1 | 0.2 |
Alex Smith | KC | 17.2 | 18.7 | 17.2 | 13.6 | 3.7 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 17.5 | 16.7 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 16.5 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 1.8 |
Blake Bortles | JAC | 17.5 | 15.1 | 17.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 |
Brian Hoyer | SF | 15.0 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 18.5 | 19.2 | 18.5 | 16.9 | 1.6 |
Carson Palmer | ARZ | 17.0 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 4.6 |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 16.4 | 15.0 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 1.9 |
Case Keenum | MIN | 8.5 | ||||
Dak Prescott | DAL | 15.9 | 18.4 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 0.8 |
Derek Carr | OAK | 16.8 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 15.4 | 1.5 |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 12.1 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 2.6 | |
DeShone Kizer | BAL | 12.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 4.1 | |
Drew Brees | NO | 18.9 | 16.2 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 2.5 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 16.1 | 14.4 | 16.1 | 11.8 | 4.3 |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 10.9 | 16.9 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 1.7 |
Jameis Winston | TB | 13.5 | ||||
Jared Goff | LAR | 12.8 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 0.4 |
Jay Cutler | MIA | 14.2 | 16.7 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 0 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 17.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 10.9 | 6.6 |
Josh McCown | NYJ | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
Kirk Cousins | WAS | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 14.7 | 3.6 |
Marcus Mariota | TEN | 16.0 | 17.8 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 2.2 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 17.7 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 17.0 | 0.7 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 15.5 | 2.1 |
Mike Glennon | CHI | 7.8 | 16.0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | -1.5 |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 16.4 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 14.0 | 2.4 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 19.8 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 14.9 | 4.9 |
Tom Brady | NE | 17.9 | 16.1 | 17.9 | 19.7 | -1.8 |
Trevor Siemian | DEN | 15.5 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 13.9 | 1.6 |
Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 17.7 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 4.9 |
Overall, my projections are three points higher this week than the standard RotoWire ones. It's a constant theme, but I am not sure of the correct adjustment yet.
While I have a better understanding of quarterbacks, I will finally move onto wide receivers. Compared to quarterbacks, their projections are easier. Basically, just targets and the basic catch rate.
Note: Running back projections are a complete mess. Injuries and fickle coaches make projecting them nearly impossible. I will eventually get to them, but the level of error with them is off the charts. The talent among backs is constant so, for now, concentrate on potential touches.
The two biggest wide receiver issues I'm dealing with are rookies and incorporating in-season data. My projection database doesn't update in-season, so I eventually linked up all the in-season and pre-season target estimates. The key word is tried. I hope I got everyone, but I am not 100 percent sure. Let me know if I missed any non-rookie.
For wide receivers, I will use the projections I previously published for the base talent rates.
With my limited time this week, I just found the weight for first two weeks of targets and the previous season's targets. For this week, the previous season targets per game get weighted at 45 percent while the in-season numbers get the other 55 percent.
PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | TD | FUM | PPR | STANDARD |
Mike Evans | 10.1 | 5.8 | 79.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 18.1 | 12.4 |
Dez Bryant | 11.1 | 7.0 | 80.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 18.9 | 11.9 |
Julio Jones | 9.4 | 5.7 | 83.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 17.3 | 11.6 |
Michael Thomas | 9.2 | 7.0 | 81.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 18.5 | 11.5 |
Antonio Brown | 11.4 | 8.4 | 92.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 19.4 | 11.1 |
A.J. Green | 9.7 | 5.6 | 78.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 16.1 | 10.5 |
Randall Cobb | 9.1 | 7.0 | 87.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 17.5 | 10.5 |
Jarvis Landry | 11.2 | 8.4 | 76.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 18.5 | 10.1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 10.5 | 6.2 | 83.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 16.2 | 9.9 |
Keenan Allen | 7.9 | 5.4 | 71.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 9.9 |
T.Y. Hilton | 8.3 | 4.9 | 68.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 9.5 |
Eric Decker | 7.9 | 5.4 | 62.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 8.5 |
Kenny Stills | 6.2 | 4.0 | 61.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 8.5 |
Doug Baldwin | 8.0 | 4.9 | 65.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 8.5 |
Davante Adams | 9.0 | 5.4 | 61.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 13.8 | 8.4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 8.5 | 4.5 | 55.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 |
Tyreek Hill | 7.7 | 5.6 | 55.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 13.7 | 8.1 |
DeVante Parker | 7.5 | 4.2 | 60.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 8.1 |
Alshon Jeffery | 8.5 | 4.7 | 58.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 12.7 | 8.1 |
Brandin Cooks | 7.7 | 5.8 | 58.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 13.5 | 7.7 |
Stefon Diggs | 7.3 | 4.6 | 56.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 7.4 |
Donte Moncrief | 6.7 | 4.2 | 52.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 |
Mohamed Sanu | 6.7 | 4.4 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 7.2 |
Adam Thielen | 7.6 | 4.8 | 57.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 |
Demaryius Thomas | 7.8 | 4.7 | 53.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.8 | 7.1 |
Tyler Lockett | 5.7 | 4.2 | 49.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 11.2 | 7.1 |
Tyrell Williams | 6.9 | 3.9 | 50.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 6.9 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 7.0 | 3.8 | 47.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 |
Terrelle Pryor | 7.6 | 4.9 | 50.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 |
J.J. Nelson | 6.6 | 3.5 | 51.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 6.8 |
Pierre Garcon | 7.2 | 5.2 | 50.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.8 | 6.7 |
Jordy Nelson | 7.4 | 4.7 | 49.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 6.6 |
Sterling Shepard | 6.4 | 4.1 | 41.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 6.4 |
Rishard Matthews | 7.6 | 4.6 | 51.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.0 | 6.4 |
Michael Crabtree | 7.4 | 4.3 | 50.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 6.2 |
Jamison Crowder | 6.7 | 5.0 | 50.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 |
DeSean Jackson | 7.2 | 4.0 | 51.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.0 | 6.0 |
John Brown | 6.7 | 3.4 | 43.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 6.0 |
Mike Wallace | 4.8 | 2.8 | 43.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 |
Jordan Matthews | 5.0 | 3.3 | 39.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 |
Marqise Lee | 7.1 | 4.1 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 5.4 |
Eli Rogers | 5.4 | 3.9 | 42.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 |
Allen Hurns | 5.6 | 3.1 | 37.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 5.4 |
Marquise Goodwin | 5.1 | 3.0 | 37.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 8.4 | 5.4 |
Golden Tate | 7.6 | 4.3 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9.7 | 5.4 |
Kenny Britt | 5.2 | 3.0 | 42.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 5.4 |
Brandon Marshall | 5.5 | 3.2 | 39.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 5.3 |
Torrey Smith | 4.7 | 2.5 | 36.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 5.1 |
Kendall Wright | 6.1 | 3.9 | 37.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.9 | 5.0 |
Cole Beasley | 6.5 | 4.2 | 39.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 |
Rashard Higgins | 6.1 | 3.6 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 |
Taylor Gabriel | 5.6 | 3.0 | 42.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 |
Chris Hogan | 6.2 | 3.9 | 37.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 |
Kamar Aiken | 4.2 | 3.0 | 31.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 4.9 |
Robby Anderson | 5.5 | 3.2 | 39.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.0 | 4.8 |
Sammy Watkins | 5.0 | 2.7 | 36.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 4.8 |
Brandon LaFell | 6.5 | 3.5 | 39.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 4.8 |
Corey Coleman | 6.1 | 3.1 | 34.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 4.7 |
Jaron Brown | 5.0 | 3.2 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 |
Geronimo Allison | 4.5 | 2.7 | 33.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 4.6 |
Devin Funchess | 4.5 | 2.4 | 30.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 4.5 |
Marvin Jones | 5.4 | 3.3 | 34.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 4.5 |
Ted Ginn | 5.8 | 3.1 | 34.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 4.4 |
Travis Benjamin | 4.7 | 2.6 | 32.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 4.4 |
Brandon Coleman | 4.2 | 2.6 | 33.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 4.3 |
Jermaine Kearse | 5.2 | 3.1 | 31.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 |
Danny Amendola | 5.7 | 3.9 | 32.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.0 | 4.1 |
Paul Richardson | 4.9 | 3.2 | 31.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 4.1 |
Robert Woods | 4.8 | 2.4 | 31.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
Breshad Perriman | 4.3 | 2.3 | 29.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 |
Dontrelle Inman | 4.2 | 2.9 | 31.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 |
Josh Bellamy | 4.4 | 2.8 | 29.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 |
Michael Thomas | 5.0 | 2.7 | 28.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 6.4 | 3.7 |
Albert Wilson | 4.0 | 2.4 | 30.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
Nelson Agholor | 4.6 | 2.6 | 29.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 |
Allen Robinson | 4.2 | 2.6 | 28.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 |
Tavon Austin | 3.9 | 2.4 | 24.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 3.5 |
Jeremy Kerley | 4.1 | 2.6 | 27.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 |
Chris Conley | 3.8 | 2.3 | 23.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 3.2 |
Seth Roberts | 2.8 | 1.7 | 21.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 |
Kevin White | 4.5 | 2.6 | 25.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 |
Tanner McEvoy | 2.7 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
Deonte Thompson | 3.2 | 2.2 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
Sammie Coates | 3.1 | 2.0 | 22.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
Roger Lewis | 3.4 | 1.7 | 18.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Russell Shepard | 3.1 | 2.0 | 20.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
Jarius Wright | 2.8 | 1.8 | 20.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 |
Aldrick Robinson | 2.2 | 1.4 | 18.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 |
Bennie Fowler | 3.1 | 1.9 | 22.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
Andre Holmes | 2.8 | 1.9 | 19.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 |
Phillip Dorsett | 3.3 | 1.7 | 19.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | 2.8 | 1.7 | 17.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
TJ Jones | 2.7 | 1.6 | 18.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
Brice Butler | 2.9 | 1.7 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
Brian Quick | 2.7 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
Ryan Grant | 2.8 | 1.6 | 16.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
Alex Erickson | 2.2 | 1.5 | 15.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Laquon Treadwell | 2.5 | 1.5 | 15.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
Cody Core | 2.4 | 1.6 | 16.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Arrelious Benn | 1.7 | 1.1 | 14.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
Josh Doctson | 2.2 | 1.2 | 14.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
Tommylee Lewis | 2.1 | 1.3 | 13.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
Justin Hardy | 2.3 | 1.4 | 13.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
Damiere Byrd | 1.7 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
Jaelen Strong | 1.5 | 0.9 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
Brittan Golden | 1.6 | 0.9 | 11.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Kasen Williams | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
Andre Roberts | 1.7 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2.2 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Leonte Carroo | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Charone Peake | 1.5 | 0.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
Quan Bray | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Pharoh Cooper | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Trevor Davis | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Brandon Tate | 1.0 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
De'Anthony Thomas | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
Johnny Holton | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Dwayne Harris | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
Jakeem Grant | 0.7 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Chris Moore | 0.8 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Eric Weems | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Demarcus Robinson | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Geremy Davis | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Vince Mayle | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Kalif Raymond | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
While there is a little bit of shuffling at the top when comparing the values to the standard RotoWire projections, the biggest discrepancy is with Jordy Nelson (6.6 pts vs. 11.2 pts). My system doesn't know about the injury he had the first couple weeks (which could still be a factor) keeping his targets down (four per game). Additionally, my projections will incorporate some league average regression because of the missed 2015 season. He's a player whose context matters.
Another receiver with a higher RotoWire projection is Brandin Cooks (7.7 pts vs. 11.0 pts). The overall numbers aren't that far off but the ranks are significant (20th vs. 7th). The biggest difference comes down to the projection for Brady and the entire New England offense production being high. Again, I need to see if defenses can be projected and if those projections are useful for predicting offense beyond just the spread values.
Two weeks down, 15 more to go to get these basic projections streamlined. The biggest takeaway I have found is what doesn't work (a lot) and the level of unpredictability. My results have been close, but I know I can do better. See everyone next week.