This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was uneventful as all the big favorites won with the exception of the low-owned Ravens. Let's take a look at Week 8:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | JETS | 42.5% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 7.91 |
| CHIEFS | Giants | 20.8% | 410 | 80.39 | 4.08 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 16.9% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.99 |
| Rams | TEXANS | 11.8% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.28 |
| CHARGERS | Patriots | 2.9% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.88 |
| SEAHAWKS | Jaguars | 1.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.55 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 0.6% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 0.6% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.24 |
| CARDINALS | Packers | 0.6% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.17 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are four big favorites, two in the first tier (Rams/Bills) and two in the second (Bengals/Chiefs.) Only the Bengals have high ownership, but as we get deeper into the year, ownership data gets more noisy.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The win over the Lions was a bit shaky last week, but the Texans are another step down, unless Tyrod Taylor can play, in which case they're merely in the running for league's worst team. I give the Rams an 87-percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
I don't love the setup here -- the Dolphins are a division rival projected to be competitive this year, and they largely have been when Tua Tagovailoa has played. Still, the Bills are a top team coming off a bye. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The
Last week was uneventful as all the big favorites won with the exception of the low-owned Ravens. Let's take a look at Week 8:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | JETS | 42.5% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 7.91 |
| CHIEFS | Giants | 20.8% | 410 | 80.39 | 4.08 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 16.9% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.99 |
| Rams | TEXANS | 11.8% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.28 |
| CHARGERS | Patriots | 2.9% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.88 |
| SEAHAWKS | Jaguars | 1.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.55 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 0.6% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 0.6% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.24 |
| CARDINALS | Packers | 0.6% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.17 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are four big favorites, two in the first tier (Rams/Bills) and two in the second (Bengals/Chiefs.) Only the Bengals have high ownership, but as we get deeper into the year, ownership data gets more noisy.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The win over the Lions was a bit shaky last week, but the Texans are another step down, unless Tyrod Taylor can play, in which case they're merely in the running for league's worst team. I give the Rams an 87-percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
I don't love the setup here -- the Dolphins are a division rival projected to be competitive this year, and they largely have been when Tua Tagovailoa has played. Still, the Bills are a top team coming off a bye. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The pick is a contrary to the ownership-percentage numbers, but I think the Giants are a more dangerous team than the Jets, and while the Bengals are at risk of a letdown after vanquishing the Ravens, the disparity in teams is larger. I give the Bengals an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs' defense is terrible, and even the great Patrick Mahomes is struggling now that teams are taking away the big plays. Still, I expect the offense to bounce back against a beatable Giants defense, though if the Giants get some key skill players back, they could hang for a while. I give the Chiefs a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Packers without Davante Adams are compromised, but Aaron Rodgers is still under center, so I wouldn't take this risk unless I had used all four of the above teams. I give the Cardinals a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Chargers -- The Patriots usually get better as the season goes along. Don't mess with them.
Seattle Seahawks -- The Geno Smith Seahawks could easily lose to the Trevor Lawrence Jaguars.
Atlanta Falcons -- The Panthers have a far better defense in this divisional matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles -- The Lions are bad, but the Eagles are not good enough to trust on the road (or at home, for that matter.)
