This article is part of our Survivor series.
Congratulations! Like everyone else, you made it to Week 7.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Texans | 48.9% | 1500 | 93.75 | 3.06 |
| PACKERS | Team | 17.6% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.52 |
| RAMS | Lions | 13.0% | 975 | 90.70 | 1.21 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 11.4% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.92 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 4.4% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.57 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 1.5% | 250 | 71.43 | 0.43 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are two overwhelming favorites, the Rams and Cardinals and one big favorite in the Bucs. Accordingly, this is a pretty straightforward slate, though the Cardinals high ownership rate puts them at No. 2 or 3.
To illustrate, let's compare the Cardinals to the Bucs. A Cardinals win/Bucs loss is .94 * .13 = .12. A Bucs win/Cardinals loss is .88 * .06 = .05. The ratio of .12/.05 = 2.4.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10-buy-in pool, if the Cardinals lose/Bucs win, that's 49 out on the Cardinals plus nine more on other teams for a total of 58. 100-58 = 42 remaining and $1000/42 = $23.81.
If the Cardinals win/Bucs lose, four people go down on the Bucs and nine on other teams for a total of 13. 100-13 = 87, and 1000/87 = $11.49. the ratio of $23.81 to $11.49 = 2.1.
In other words, even with 49 percent of your pool on the Cardinals, the risk of fading them for the Bucs still outweighs the reward.
1.
Congratulations! Like everyone else, you made it to Week 7.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Texans | 48.9% | 1500 | 93.75 | 3.06 |
| PACKERS | Team | 17.6% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.52 |
| RAMS | Lions | 13.0% | 975 | 90.70 | 1.21 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 11.4% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.92 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 4.4% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.57 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 1.5% | 250 | 71.43 | 0.43 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are two overwhelming favorites, the Rams and Cardinals and one big favorite in the Bucs. Accordingly, this is a pretty straightforward slate, though the Cardinals high ownership rate puts them at No. 2 or 3.
To illustrate, let's compare the Cardinals to the Bucs. A Cardinals win/Bucs loss is .94 * .13 = .12. A Bucs win/Cardinals loss is .88 * .06 = .05. The ratio of .12/.05 = 2.4.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10-buy-in pool, if the Cardinals lose/Bucs win, that's 49 out on the Cardinals plus nine more on other teams for a total of 58. 100-58 = 42 remaining and $1000/42 = $23.81.
If the Cardinals win/Bucs lose, four people go down on the Bucs and nine on other teams for a total of 13. 100-13 = 87, and 1000/87 = $11.49. the ratio of $23.81 to $11.49 = 2.1.
In other words, even with 49 percent of your pool on the Cardinals, the risk of fading them for the Bucs still outweighs the reward.
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams get to take out their revenge on 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. The Lions are winless, and as such are a desperate animal, but the Rams are strong on both sides of the ball, playing at home and the Lions don't have any big-play weapons. I give the Rams a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The undefeated Cardinals should destroy the Texans, but it's the NFL, so there's still a six and a quarter percent chance of an upset. The only reason the Cardinals aren't No. 1 is the presence of the massively favored Rams at much lower ownership. I give the Cardinals a 94 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs haven't dominated of late, but they're coming off 10 days' rest and face a rookie QB. I give them an 87 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
I see this as a letdown spot for the Packers, but that's more about covering the spread than it is losing outright to a Team team that's not good on either side of the ball. I give the Packers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
5. New England Patriots
They're not good, but they get the Jets at home, and Mac Jones has showed more than Zach Wilson thus far. I give the Patriots a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Baltimore Ravens: The Bengals are a live dog, and they'll be up for a game against their big-brother division rival.
