This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was hilarious -- the Patriots, Vikings and Ravens were all dead to rights, but somehow prevailed, keeping virtually every team alive, as the Bucs and Cowboys cruised to easy wins.
Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | GIANTS | 37.0% | 562.5 | 84.91 | 5.58 |
| COLTS | Texans | 36.2% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 6.73 |
| Chiefs | TEAM | 11.8% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.95 |
| STEELERS | Seahawks | 3.7% | 205 | 67.21 | 1.21 |
| Buccaneers | EAGLES | 3.5% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.93 |
| Packers | BEARS | 2.0% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.66 |
| Cowboys | PATRIOTS | 1.7% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.59 |
| Bengals | LIONS | 1.0% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.37 |
| Bills | TITANS | 1.0% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Dolphins | Jaguars*** | 0.8% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.29 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Rams and Colts stand apart, both in winning percentage and usage. The question is whether the Chiefs, the next best choice, make sense from a pot-odds perspective.
A Rams win/Chiefs loss is .85*.25 = 21.25%. A Chiefs Win/Rams loss is 11.25%. The ratio of 21.25/11.25 = 1.89.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, if the Rams win/Chiefs lose, 12 are out on the Chiefs and 11 on other teams, for a total of 23. 100-23 = 77, $1000/77 = $12.99.
If the Chiefs win/Rams lose, 37 are out on the Rams plus 11 on other teams for a total of 48. $1000/52 = $19.23. The ratio of $19.23/$12.99 = 1.48.
The risk ratio is 1.89, reward only 1.48. That
Last week was hilarious -- the Patriots, Vikings and Ravens were all dead to rights, but somehow prevailed, keeping virtually every team alive, as the Bucs and Cowboys cruised to easy wins.
Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | GIANTS | 37.0% | 562.5 | 84.91 | 5.58 |
| COLTS | Texans | 36.2% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 6.73 |
| Chiefs | TEAM | 11.8% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.95 |
| STEELERS | Seahawks | 3.7% | 205 | 67.21 | 1.21 |
| Buccaneers | EAGLES | 3.5% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.93 |
| Packers | BEARS | 2.0% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.66 |
| Cowboys | PATRIOTS | 1.7% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.59 |
| Bengals | LIONS | 1.0% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.37 |
| Bills | TITANS | 1.0% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Dolphins | Jaguars*** | 0.8% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.29 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Rams and Colts stand apart, both in winning percentage and usage. The question is whether the Chiefs, the next best choice, make sense from a pot-odds perspective.
A Rams win/Chiefs loss is .85*.25 = 21.25%. A Chiefs Win/Rams loss is 11.25%. The ratio of 21.25/11.25 = 1.89.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, if the Rams win/Chiefs lose, 12 are out on the Chiefs and 11 on other teams, for a total of 23. 100-23 = 77, $1000/77 = $12.99.
If the Chiefs win/Rams lose, 37 are out on the Rams plus 11 on other teams for a total of 48. $1000/52 = $19.23. The ratio of $19.23/$12.99 = 1.48.
The risk ratio is 1.89, reward only 1.48. That means -- at least using these numbers -- the Rams are the pick.
My Picks:
1. Los Angeles Rams
I hate to go against my own team, but it's not really the Giants, but the third-quarter-of-a-preseason-game Giants with Mike Glennon likely filling in for Daniel Jones, Devontae Booker for Saquon Barkley and most of the receiving corps out. The Rams are at full strength, but they have to fly cross country for an early body-clock game. Unless Jones miraculously is able to play, I give the Rams an 86 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz might have turned a corner Monday night, but Davis Mills might have too against the Patriots last week. Moreover, the Colts just lost a heartbreaking overtime game on the road Monday night, so they're coming off five quarters and a short week. Still, it's a home game against the Texans. I give the Colts an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs might be the league's best team, but their pass defense is poor, something good teams will exploit. Fortunately, they're facing a team with an unsteady quarterback, and while the Eagles have some playmakers, the consistency hasn't been there. I give the Buccaneers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Super Bowl hangover is real, and the Chiefs are poor defensively and can't run the ball very well. That said, the Team has an erratic offense and below-average defense, and the Chiefs, coming off an embarrassing home loss, should bounce back. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Seahawks are at best an average team with a great quarterback, and minus the quarterback, they wouldn't crack .500. The Steelers offense is bad, but they still have a good defense and are at home. I give them a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are good mostly because they have a great quarterback, but their defense is suspect, and their receiving depth is poor. I give them a 68 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Dallas Cowboys: Don't stake your life on Mike McCarthy against Bill Belichick on the road.
Buffalo BIlls: I don't like this Monday night road game after the Bills just avenged their AFC title game loss in Kansas City.
