This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're back at it for our Week 17 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Antonio Gibson – higher than 41.5 rushing receiving yards or over 7.5 rushing attempts
Coach Jerod Mayo has kept any official announcement about a change of role under wraps in the New England backfield, but he did express frustration with Rhamondre Stevenson after a key fumble in the team's loss to the Bills. Stevenson has now lost seven fumbles this season, which should lead to a more significant role for Gibson. The logic here is simple: There's a change in role that hasn't been accounted for in the projection.
Breece Hall – higher than 47.5 rushing yards
It appeared that Hall would be stuck in a timeshare in the Jets' backfield to close the 2024 season, but he totaled 14 carries in Week 16 – his highest mark since Week 11. He avoided the injury report leading up to a Week 16 matchup against Buffalo, suggesting he should be used at his full capacity once again. The Bills are also more favorable to Hall's cause than perhaps anticipated. They're a run funnel defense (-3.8 pass rate over expectation for opponent's this season) and are mediocre in terms of stopping rushing attempts on a per attempt basis. Overall, volume should be on Hall's side, and the matchup suggests he can be efficient with the opportunity.
Brandin Cooks – higher than 32.5 receiving yards
There are different thoughts when debating whether the absence of a top receiving option in an offense benefits those below them, but there's no denying there's a huge gap in Dallas' receiving corps with CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) out. Cooks could still be lower in target priority than both Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert, but he consistently runs routes when healthy (24 per game) and that should be enough to get him the opportunity needed to top this projection.
Chig Okonkwo – higher than 37.5 receiving yards
Okonkwo has suddenly come alive in the last few weeks, tallying 17 receptions for 140 yards across his last two games. That alone isn't predictive of what we'll see in Week 17, but there are reasons to believe in his bump in production. The first is the team's play-calling. Tennessee has gotten more aggressive through the air, attempting 38 and 34 passes in the last two weeks, respectively. Meanwhile, Okonkwo has topped this projection in four of the five games in which Mason Rudolph has thrown at least 20 passes.
Romeo Doubs – higher than 45.5 receiving yards
For much of the season, the Packers have run through teams with Josh Jacobs as their primary back. That strategy isn't likely to be as effective in Week 17 given the Vikings' defensive strengths. We've seen opponents continually attack them through the air (opponents have a -1.4 percent pass rate over expectation against them, 11th highest in the league). We may not see 40 pass attempts from Jordan Love, but keeping the ball stubbornly on the ground won't be an effective gameplan. Two other factors point to Doubs being a good selection. The team has a widespread target distribution, but Doubs leads the team in both target share and targets per route run. Add in the fact that Christian Watson (knee) seems extremely unlikely to play, and this should be a good week for Doubs.
Lower
Michael Penix – lower than 30.5 pass attempts
It shouldn't come as a significant surprise that the Falcons decided on a run-heavy gameplan in Penix's debut. While the Week 16 result came primarily because the Falcons easily had a win over the Giants in hand, their Week 17 matchup against the Commanders offers the incentive to run a conservative offense for a different reason. Washington's opponents this season have combined to post the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation (-5.7 percent) and are a clear run funnel defense. Atlanta shouldn't have any complaints about relying on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in a pivotal showdown for their chance to reach the postseason.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson – lower than 170.5 passing yards
In five NFL games with a meaningful sample, Thompson-Robinson's best yards per attempt has been 4.62. He's accomplished that exactly twice and came away with 134 and 157 passing yards. In Week 17, he'll face a surprisingly effective Miami defense against the pass, as the unit has allowed only 6.95 yards per attempt, the 11th lowest mark in the league. Until proven otherwise, DTR should be selected to underperform his yardage prop every week as a starter.
De'Von Achane- lower than 99.5 rushing + receiving yards
We can flip to the other side of the Cleveland-Miami matchup for our final selection of the weekend. We know Achane has the talent to surpass this projection, but the matchup does him no favors in Week 17. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs this season and allowed them to be targeted at the third-lowest rate in the league. Achane has topped this projection six times on the campaign and posted receiving yardage totals 70, 32, 58, 50, 69 and 76 in those contests. Meanwhile, the Browns have allowed only three backs to reach 30 receiving yards in a game.