2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race (Wild Card Round)

The 2025 NFL MVP odds show a two-horse race. The debate between Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford has divided NFL pundits and fans alike. Even the oddsmakers are split. The race has swung dramatically over the last few weeks, with Stafford currently maintaining a narrow lead at most sportsbooks. 

Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the 2025 NFL MVP race, including the odds to win NFL MVP, the best NFL MVP bets to make, and a few long-shot plays to consider. Make sure you check out the current odds to win the Super Bowl as well. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: Wild Card Round, 2025

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from a variety of sportsbooks. They are the longest or "best" available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2025 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the legitimate 2025 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from top operators like BetMGM Sportsbook:

Matthew Stafford (-165)

Matthew Stafford has been tremendous this season. If he doesn't win MVP this year, his 46 passing touchdowns would be the most TDs ever thrown by a QB that did not win MVP. He'd be tied with Drew Brees, who threw 46 TDs but lost the award to Aaron Rodgers in 2011. Stafford has 11 more total touchdowns than Maye, who is his only real competition at this point. But competition is the keyword here. Stafford piled up those gaudy numbers against a much more difficult schedule than Maye. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best traditional pocket-passing statistics in the league.
• ✅ Excellent narrative – first MVP in 17th season is crowning achievement of HOF-level career
• ✅ 46 Total Touchdowns. 

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Will voters hold his tremendous supporting cast against him? 
• ❌ Brutal back-to-back losses in Week 16 & 17 – Rams now No. 6 seed in NFC.
• ❌ Maye has the edge across the board in most advanced stats.

Drake Maye (+150) 

This award clearly should go to Drake Maye. There are only two real advantages Stafford has over Maye: the Pats had an easy schedule, and Stafford has more touchdowns. Let's debunk both of those. 

The Patriots' schedule was easy because they faced bad quarterbacks, not bad defenses. Averaging the EPA per play of their opposing pass defenses faced, Maye's opponents ranked 20th out of 32 teams. Stafford's ranked 17th on average. That's a wash. 

In fact, against common opponents, Maye dramatically outperformed Stafford. Against the six teams both QBs faced, Maye went 6-0 while averaging 292.3 total yards per game with 14 total TDs to 3 INTs. Stafford went 4-2 while averaging 255.8 total yards per outing with 14 total TDs to 6 INTs. Stafford turned the ball over six times in those two losses. Had he played clean games against CAR and ATL, as Maye did, LAR would likely be the No. 1 seed. 

As for the touchdowns, Stafford's 46-TD campaign isn't as impressive as it looks. 13 of Stafford's 46 TDs came from the one-yard line, which is the most in NFL history. Entering Week 18, Maye was the heavy favorite at most sportsbooks. Those odds swung back in Stafford's favor Sunday night, primarily because he racked up four TDs against the 3-14 Cardinals, while Maye wasn't asked to do much in a rout against Miami. A 4-TD performance in a meaningless Week 18 game swinging the MVP race is ridiculous.

I don't want to take anything away from Stafford. He was remarkable this season. But strength of schedule and touchdowns are the only arguments that point to him being a more deserving MVP than Maye. Here are some key stats that Maye has the lead in: 

• EPA Per Play
• Adjusted EPA Per Play 
• Success Rate
• Completion Percentage
• Completion Percentage Above Expectation
• EPA + CPOE Composite 
• Passer Rating
• QBR
• Game-Winning Drives
• Total Yards Gained
• Every rushing stat
• Yards Lost From Sacks

Here are the stats that favor Stafford:

• Passing Touchdowns
• Passing Yards
• TD to INT Ratio

If you think MVP is more about winning than statistical performance, Maye is the pick as well. He took a 4-13 Patriots team and led them to the best record in the NFL, the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and a division title. Meanwhile, the star-studded Rams went 12-5, finished as the No. 5 seed in the NFC, and tied for second in the NFC West. The last time the MVP went to a QB that didn't win their division was Peyton Manning in 2008. The only other instance in NFL history was Johnny Unitas in 1967. Winning the division is basically a prerequisite for a QB to win the MVP. Maye was the only candidate who did it this year.

Sure, you could argue that Maye only accomplished all of that because of the easy schedule. But if Stafford played as well as Maye did against the same opponents, the Rams would have won their division. 

Other than TDs, Maye outperformed Stafford in every category that typically decides this award. And he did it with far less help. That sounds like an MVP to me. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Historically efficient season – led NFL in completion percentage and YPA. That's only been done twice before: Tom Brady (2007) and Kurt Warner (2001). Both won MVP. 
• ✅ Led last year's 3-14 Patriots to a 14-3 record and No. 2 seed in the AFC. 
• ✅ Statistical advantages across the board, other than TDs. 

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Faced a historically weak schedule.
• ❌ Stafford has more TDs.

Best 2025 NFL MVP Bet

Now that you have all the context surrounding the 2025 NFL MVP odds, I'll give you my best bets. Here are my best 2025 NFL MVP bets to make heading into the Wild Card Round: 

Drake Maye (+150)

At this point, betting anyone other than Stafford or Maye is lighting money on fire. It's a 50/50 race. I'd take the player with the better odds. Right now, that's Maye, who is available at +150 compared to -165 for Stafford. 

Current NFL MVP Predictions: Wild Card Round

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of the Wild Card Round. 

Matthew Stafford to Win NFL MVP

Personally, I think this award should go to Drake Maye. I've made that pretty clear. But the MVP comes down to what the voters think. I have a feeling the voters will reward Stafford. 

He led the league in passing yards (4,707) and passing TDs (46). The voters tend to lean on traditional criteria like yards, touchdowns, and narratives. Stafford has the edge in the traditional passing categories, and this is probably the 37-year-old's last chance to win an MVP. Maye has his whole career in front of him. I think that'll be the tie breaker that wins Stafford the award. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: -165 (DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: Wild Card Round

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