This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Line Movement and Odds Changes for Week 4
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 4 Odds
BYES: NONE
NFL Week 4 Schedule
- Dallas Cowboys -4.5 at New York Giants O/U 43.5/44.0
- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons -1.5 O/U 43.5
- Cincinnati Bengals -5.0/-5.5 at Carolina Panthers O/U 46.5/47.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears -2.5 O/U 40.5/41.0
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -2.5/-3.0 O/U 43.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans -4.5 O/U 45.0/45.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 at Indianapolis Colts O/U 39.5/40.0
- Denver Broncos -7.0 at New York Jets O/U 38.5
- Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 44.5/45.0
- Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals -4.5/-5.0 O/U 49.0/49.5
- New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers -10.0/-10.5 O/U 39.5/40.0
- Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 39.5/40.0
- Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 O/U 37.5/38.0
- Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens -2.5 O/U 45.5/46.5
- Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins -1.0/-1.5 O/U 36.5/37.0
- Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions -4.5 O/U 47.0/47.5
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NFL Week 4 Key Injury News
Bears - WR Keenan Allen
Browns - WR Amari Cooper, TE David Njoku, OL Jack Conklin, DE Myles Garrett, OL Wyatt Teller, OL Jedrick Wills
Cardinals - TE Trey McBride
Chargers - QB Justin Herbert, WR Joshua Palmer, WR DJ Chark, OL Joe Alt, OL Rashawn Slater, DE Joey Bosa
Chiefs - RB Isiah Pacheco
Dolphins - QB Tua Tagovailoa, QB Skylar Thompson, RB Raheem Mostert, OL Terron Armstead
Eagles - WR DeVonta Smith, WR A.J. Brown. OL Lane Johnson, OL Mekhi Becton
Jaguars - TE Evan Engram
Lions - TE Sam LaPorta
Niners - RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle
Packers - QB Jordan Love (might play)
Panthers - WR Adam Thielen
Rams - WR Puka Nacua, WR Cooper Kupp
Saints - TE Taysom Hill, OL Erik McCoy
Seahawks - DT Byron Murphy, DE Leonard Williams
Steelers - LB Alex Highsmith
Texans - RB Joe Mixon, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Tank Dell
Vikings - WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson,
NFL Week 4 Odds Observations
- Injuries are taking its toll in a big way for some teams
- We have our first double digit spread of the season with the 49ers -10.5 over the Patriots
- There are only 2 other games with lines of at least -7.0 or higher (Broncos/Jets, Chiefs/Chargers)
- The highest total on the board is Commanders/Cardinals at 49.0; the lowest total on the board is Titans/Dolphins at 36.5 (and that might head lower)
- A lot of totals hovering around 43-44 and 38-40.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
This game has seen some of the biggest movement of the week due to the injuries on the Chargers side. The original opening line in May had KC -3, and it lifted to -4 and remained there until Sunday at 1pm. But then the Chargers lost to the Steelers and the Chiefs beat the Falcons. Then the injury news came out about Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, Joshua Palmer, and Joe Alt. The Chargers already will miss Derwin James and DJ Chark.
The line peaked at -9, saw some buyback down to -7.0, but then lifted back up to -8.0.
The total has taken a massive dive from 49.0 to 39.5 due to all of the Chargers injuries.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Miami opened -6.5, but with the quarterback injuries the line dropped to -2.5, then -1.5, and now -1.0. The Titans are bad enough that they remain underdogs to a team down to their third quarterback.
The total has also taken a huge plunge going from 46.0 all the way down to 37.0 based on the injuries to the Dolphins and the Titans poor play.
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
This looks like one of the worst matchups in the NFL, and an impossible one to handicap. The Browns opened -1.5 and moved up to -2.5. In Week 2, times looked better for both teams as the Raiders beat the Ravens and the Browns knocked off the Jaguars. But in Week 3, the Raiders got blown out by the Panthers and the Browns lost to the Giants. This has put the Raiders at -1.0, but the total has also taken a huge dive going to 43.5 down to 37.5.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
This is the hardest game of the week to handicap due to the unknown status of Packers quarterback Jordan Love. There is a strong indication that Love will play this week and the line is sitting at Packers -3.0, up from the Vikings -2.0.
The total had opened 45.0 and dropped to 40.0, but came back up to 43.5. If Love is confirmed in, we could see the Packers move up at least 1 point and the total could go up 1-2 points.
Other Notables
Rams/Bears - Line has bounced around between -1.0 and -3.0; total opened 47 and is now 41.0 due to all of the Rams injuries
Commanders/Cardinals - Total has jumped from 45.0 to 49.5 and now 49.0. The combination of two very poor defenses and both offenses can move the ball.
Patriots/49ers - Total has dropped from 45.0 to 39.5 due to the 49ers injuries.
