NFL Game Previews: Lions-49ers Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Detroit at San Francisco (+3.5), o/u 50.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Lions head into Monday in the pole position for the top seed in the NFC, although the Vikings loom in Week 18. After that wild, costly loss to Buffalo in Week 15, Detroit got back up and put up 34 points and 475 yards against Chicago last week. Jared Goff looked like he was playing indoors, throwing for 336 yards and three TDs, while Jahmyr Gibbs seemed to enjoy having the backfield to himself with a season-high 153 scrimmage yards. The offense is clearly not a problem. The defense, on the other hand... there's only so many injuries a unit can withstand, and the Lions may have passed their quota. Caleb Williams nearly matched Goff toss for toss, and a Detroit roster that looked like the most complete team in the league a few weeks ago may have to resort to out-slinging the opposition in the playoffs.

The 49ers won't have to worry about that, of course, Their injury epidemic has already cost them a playoff spot, and this will be their last meaningful game of 2024 with the Cards on the schedule in Week 18. Brock Purdy's going down firing, topping 300 yards with multiple touchdowns in two of the last three games, but the running game struggled last week with fifth-string RB Patrick Taylor as the starter. Isaac Guerendo will be back for this one after he ran for a 4.4 YPC and collected 203 scrimmage yards with two rushing TDs in his first two starts. The Niners have lost of five of six for a reason, though, as the defense hasn't made splash plays or gotten off the field consistently, and the offense has failed to reach 20 points in each loss. There's still talent enough for an upset here, but San Francisco hasn't much looked like a team capable of coming up big when it counts this season.

Key Info

DET injuries: RB David Montgomery (out, knee), EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (IR, lower leg), LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)
SF injuries: LB Dre Greenlaw (out, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: none
SF DFS fades: George Kittle

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Gibbs strikes for 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for 290 yards and three TDs, one each to Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Guerendo surges for 90 combined yards and a score. Purdy throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Jauan Jennings. Lions 38-20

EARLY SUNDAY

Indianapolis at New York Giants (+7.5), o/u 40.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Colts are still one of the not dead yet teams in the AFC after beating the Titans last week, thanks to a massive performance from Jonathan Taylor. Indy hasn't beaten a playoff team since September, but fortunately Shane Steichen's squad won't have to, as it wraps up its schedule with the teams currently set to pick first and third in next year's draft. The Colts just need one of the Chargers or Broncos to fall on their face. Anthony Richardson is a bit banged up after running for a season-high 70 yards last week himself, plus a rushing TD for the third straight game, but if the playoffs are still on the table he won't sit. If both Denver and the Bolts win Saturday though, it might be a different story. The Colts' defense has stepped up the last couple weeks with six takeaways, but it also just gave up 30 points to a Mason Rudolph-led Tennessee offense, and 24 earlier this month to New England.

The Giants have their destiny in their hands. Two more losses, and they get the the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, and a new franchise QB. They haven't won a home game all year, and got stomped last week by a team with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. Drew Lock will probably get another start for Big Blue because why not, but it hardly matters whether he or Tommy DeVito is under center. No part of this team is really functional right now. Tyrone Tracy has shown flashes but hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 10 while working behind a tattered, tired offensive line. Malik Nabers is clearly talented, and clearly limited by his QB situation. The defense hasn't produced multiple takeaways in a game since Week 3. Brian Daboll's probably just playing out the string, although for some reason Joe Schoen might stick around. I guess a decent 2024 draft haul bought him some extra slack? It wasn't Daboll that forced Saquon Barkley out the door, or gave Daniel Jones that contract, but whatever.

Key Info

IND injuries: QB Anthony Richardson (questionable, back/foot), LB E.J. Speed (questionable, knee)
NYG injuries: WR Malik Nabers (questionable, toe), LB Micah McFadden (out, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs
NYG DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Darius Slayton

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Taylor racks up 120 yards and a touchdown. Richardson throws for under 200 yards but hits Downs for one TD and runs in another. Tracy manages 50 yards. Lock throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does connect with Daniel Bellinger for a score. Colts 24-13

New York Jets (+9.5) at Buffalo, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jets have little to play for but draft position, but Aaron Rodgers is sitting on 499 career passing TDs, while Garrett Wilson is only 13 yards away from 1,000 on the season and 10 catches shy of 100, so there are some personal milestones at play over the final two weeks. In theory a win here could help cost the Bills the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but that's hardly a real chance to play spoiler. A Jets offense that had been showing signs of life in December got held to nine points by the Rams last week in the cold, and this time around they'll be stuck playing in wet and windy conditions. The banged-up defense is also struggling – the Jags put up 421 yards and 25 points against them – and the Jets have lost four straight games in Buffalo by an average score of about 27-11, so there's really little reason to think they'll even keep this one close, without a big assist from the weather.

I think fans and football observers generally forget just how tough it is to keep performing at an elite level for a long stretch. The Bills had scored at least 30 points in each straight games heading into last week, and while they still came away with a win, a 24-21 victory that required a fourth-quarter fumble recovery in the end zone by Taron Johnson wasn't really up to Buffalo's usual standards. As the saying goes, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but what else do we have to go on? The good news for the Bills is that even if the offense is cooling down, the defense is heating up. The road barn burners against the Lions and Rams stand out as aberrations, as otherwise DC Bobby Babich's unit hasn't given up more than 21 points since Week 9, and hasn't allowed more than 400 yards of offense since Week 5. Of course, it's not a given the offense is cooling down, either. Josh Allen remains on track to win MVP, and over four games since the team's bye he's produced 14 touchdowns (eight passing, six rushing) against only one INT. Amari Cooper has bizarrely vanished from the game plan, seeing only two targets total the last two games after getting 14 against the Rams, and you have to think at some point Allen will want the veteran wideout to build some momentum ahead of the postseason.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: WR Davante Adams (questionable, hip), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), EDGE Haason Reddick (questionable, neck), DT Quinnen Williams (questionable, hamstring), LB C.J. Mosley (IR, neck), CB Sauce Gardner (questionable, hamstring), S Tony Adams (questionable, ankle)
BUF injuries: S Damar Hamlin (questionable, ribs), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: Garrett Wilson
BUF DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: Jets DST
BUF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 15-20 mph wind, 80-90 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Breece Hall grinds out 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and TD No. 500 to Davante Adams. James Cook piles up 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 270 yards and two scores, one each to Cooper and Khalil Shakir, while also running in a TD. Bills 28-10

Tennessee (+1.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's really important for the Titans not to win this game. They're currently set to pick fourth in next year's draft with a 3-12 record, but the Jags would pick third and the Pats second, also with three wins each. Taking Jacksonville out of the picture would get Tennessee that much closer to a new franchise QB, or at least reduce the cost to trade up to get one a bit. The Titans have lost four straight, but the offense has been more productive the last couple weeks with Mason Rudolph at the helm. He hasn't been any more careful with the ball than Will Levis was with four INTs, but he's also thrown four TDs and led the team to 57 points, its highest two-game total of 2024. Tony Pollard's been less than 100 percent, but Tyjae Spears has stepped up with four touchdowns and 158 scrimmage yards in the last two contests. Fortunately for the Titans' draft plans, the defense has been pretty awful of late, especially on the ground – the Colts erupted for 335 rushing yards as a team against them last week, and the Commanders hot for 267 rushing yards in Week 13.

Of course, the one team that couldn't run the ball against the Titans this month was the Jaguars during a 10-6 win in Week 14. The offense under Mac Jones has been a little better since Jacksonville's bye, but it's still only averaged 17.3 points over the last four games while committing seven turnovers. Neither Travis Etienne nor Tank Bigsby have averaged 4.0 yards per carry during that span, but Bigsby's at least scored a couple TDs; Etienne hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 2. Brian Thomas has been the lone bright spot for the Jags this season on that side of the ball, which is one more bright spot than the defense can claim. DC Ryan Nielsen's unit hasn't produced even one takeaway in five straight games, and it's the only defense in the league allowing 6.0 yards a play on the year. Only three teams all season have failed to generate 300 yards of offense against the Jags – the Browns with Deshaun Watson at QB, the Patriots in Drake Maye's second career start... and the Titans.

Key Info

TEN injuries: RB Tony Pollard (questionable, ankle), WR Tyler Boyd (questionable, foot), K Nick Folk (out, abdomen), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, wrist), S Amani Hooker (questionable, shoulder)
JAC injuries: LB Ventrell Miller (out, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: Mason Rudolph, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chig Okonkwo
JAC DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Parker Washington

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Spears leads the TEN backfield with 60 yards and a score. Rudolph throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Calvin Ridley. Bigsby bangs out 50 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Thomas. Titans 17-10

Las Vegas at New Orleans (+1), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's win over the Jaguars sent the Raiders tumbling up to the sixth overall pick in 2025, which probably isn't going to get them a new QB. Aidan O'Connell was back under center and got Brock Bowers back on track toward the greatest season by a rookie tight end in NFL history, but the quarterback's own numbers barely qualified as mediocre. Las Vegas' defense has somewhat quietly held three of its last four opponents under 20 points while racking yup six takeaways and eight sacks in the last three games, even with Maxx Crosby done for the year. If you need a dart throw DST for the last couple weeks, you could do worse – their Week 18 meeting with the Chargers could be against a team that's got nothing to play for and is just trying to stay healthy heading into the playoffs.

Much as Derek Carr might have wanted to suit up for a revenge game here, his fractured non-throwing hand will keep him sidelined for a third straight contest. That's been the story of the season for the Saints – Alvin Kamara's out for this one too, and the team will face the Raiders without arguably its top five skill-position players, plus a couple starting O-linemen, a starting corner, etc. Spencer Rattler's been bad as the starting QB the last two weeks, and the offense hasn't reached 20 points in four straight games since the Saints' Week 12 bye. They might get a chance to play spoiler next week against the Bucs, but this matchup is pretty much the ultimate in late-season meaninglessness. There's a little on the line for players who need to prove themselves like Kendre Miller, but that's about it.

Key Info

LV injuries: RB Sincere McCormick (IR, ankle)
NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (out, hand), RB Alvin Kamara (out, groin), WR Chris Olave (IR, concussion), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, chest)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: Alexander Mattison
NO DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: Jakobi Meyers
NO DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Mattison leads the LV backfield with 50 yards. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Bowers. Miller picks up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Rattler throws for under 200 yards and a pick-six to Tre'von Moehrig, but his also hits Dante Pettis for a TD. Saints 20-14

Carolina (+8) at Tampa Bay, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The 2024 Panthers likely peaked last week with an OT win over the Cardinals that eliminated Arizona from postseason contention. Somewhere along the way to 152 rushing yards and two TDs, Chuba Hubbard picked up lower-body injuries that have ended his campaign, leaving the backfield in the hands of special-teams ace Raheem Blackshear and retreads Mike Boone and Velus Jones. Bryce Young has thrown a TD in eight straight games, looking more and more like a competent NFL quarterback, if not an actually good one, but he had Hubbard to fall back on during that stretch. One of those games was against the Bucs, in which the 2023 first overall pick threw for a season-high 298 yards, so more responsibility on his shoulders may not be a bad thing this week. The Carolina defense remains atrocious, especially in the trenches – the Panthers are the only team in the league allowing more than 5.0 yards per carry, and seven straight opponents have topped 160 rushing yards against them.

Last week's loss to the Cowboys bumped the Buccaneers back into a tie atop the NFC South with the Falcons, which is a problem considering Atlanta swept the season series. If the two teams remain tied after Week 18, Tampa Bay's staying home for the playoffs. Baker Mayfield's on the cusp of his second straight 4,000-yard season and has already chucked a career-high 34 TDs, but he's also committed a turnover in five straight games (six INTs, two lost fumbles on six total times putting the ball on the carpet), and while Browns fans may not feel great about their own QB situation, they at least maybe feel a bit less like Mayfield was The One that got away. On paper, the Bucs have two winnable home games left, but the team's defense likely isn't going to make it easy. In the first meeting with the Panthers they gave up 23 points, and in the first meeting with the Saints (their Week 18 opponent) they coughed up 27, and that was with Carr sidelined. Tampa still won both those games, of course – 26-23 in OT against Carolina, and a 51-27 rout of New Orleans in Week 6 – but they may not be gimmes.

Key Info

CAR injuries: RB Chuba Hubbard (IR, knee), WR Xavier Legette (questionable, hip), DE A'Shawn Robinson (questionable, knee), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (questionable, shoulder), LB Josey Jewell (out, concussion)
TB injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (out, hamstring), TE Cade Otton (out, knee), LB K.J. Britt (questionable, ankle), S Antoine Winfield (out, knee), S Jordan Whitehead (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving/Rachaad White, Payne Durham

CAR DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 40-50 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Blackshear leads the CAR backfield with 50 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards and two TDs, finding Adam Thielen and Tommy Tremble. Irving erupts for 110 yards and a score while White adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and two TDs, both to Mike Evans. Buccaneers 31-14

Dallas (+7.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Now that the pressure's off, the Cowboys are playing their best football of the season. Dallas has won four of its last five and still has a chance to finish with a record above .500 – and that's without Dak Prescott, Zack Martin, Trevon Diggs, DeMarvion Overshown and others in the lineup right now. CeeDee Lamb joins that list this week, and despite playing through a shoulder issue he finished his campaign with a 7-105-0 line in a win over the Bucs that could well end up keeping Tampa Bay out of the playoffs. I have to admit, of all the coaches who have guided their teams to disappointing finishes in 2024, Mike McCarthy might just have the most job security right now. Rico Dowdle couldn't reach 100 yards for a fourth straight game last week, and he'll probably have a tough time in this one, but a 5.2 YPC over the last five games is still pretty darn impressive given the state of the roster around him.

The Eagles are still in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC, but but suddenly even hanging onto the NFC East title looks a tiny bit dicey. Jalen Hurts will sit this one out after getting knocked out of last week's loss to the Commanders, and while they still get to face the Giants in Week 18, Philly fans have to be at least a little nervous. Kenny Pickett also got banged up as Hurts' replacement, but he'll play this week, although having potentially sore ribs isn't how to want to head into a game against Micah Parsons. That probably means even more Saquon Barkley, who's 162 yards short of 2,000 and 267 yards away from Eric Dickerson's all-time record. That's far from impossible – he's gained 267 yards in back-to-back games this season on multiple occasions – but if Dallas doesn't have to worry about stopping Philly through the air, Saquon's job gets that much harder. It might be on a defense that racked up five takeaways the last time these teams met in Week 10 to get the job done and lock up that division title.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR CeeDee Lamb (IR, shoulder), WR Jalen Tolbert (questionable, finger), WR Jalen Brooks (questionable, knee), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, calf), CB Trevon Diggs (IR, knee), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, knee)
PHI injuries: QB Jalen Hurts (out, concussion), TE Dallas Goedert (IR, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist), LB Nakobe Dean (doubtful, abdomen)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Rico Dowdle, Jalen Tolbert
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Dowdle manages 60 yards. Cooper Rush throws for under 200 yards but does find Brandin Cooks for a score. Barkley thunders for 150 yards and two TDs. Pickett throws for under 200 yards and hits A.J. Brown for a touchdown. Eagles 21-16

LATE SUNDAY

Miami at Cleveland (+6.5), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Dolphins are one of the 7-8 AFC teams still on life support, as they can sneak into the playoffs if they win out, the Broncos collapse and they get help elsewhere. Miami's alternated wins and losses since late November, and alternated home and away games in that time, and the two patterns overlap – the Fish are 4-0 in their last four games at Hard Rock Stadium, averaging over 32 points a game, and 0-2 on the road while scoring a total of 29 points. (Their last two games are on the road, by the way.) The offense that has trouble putting points on the board also rolls into this one in rough shape. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip issue, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are playing through injuries of their own, and the defense is missing some key players too. Beating the Browns and then the Jets isn't a tall order, but especially if Tua gets shut down, taking a wild-card spot would re-define Miami Miracle.

Four straight losses have dropped the Browns into the top five pick in 2025, and a restructured contract for Deshaun Watson gives then a little bit more flexibility in trying to solve their QB issues if they can't land a new franchise signal-caller in the draft. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the current guy under center, but it largely hasn't mattered whether it's been him or Jameis Winston – the offense has been a comedy of errors either way. Cleveland's committed at least three giveaways in five straight games, and it's scored a total of 13 points in the last two. In fact, the Browns have scored 20 or more points in a game only three times all year, and topped 336 yards only three times. The defense is struggling too, or at least is just tired of doing all the work. Over the last four games, DC Jim Schwartz's unit has allowed 28.3 points a game, and it hasn't held a team below 100 rushing yards since Week 9. Over that five-game stretch of ball security ineptitude by the offense, the Browns have a minus-13 turnover differential, which is an awful lot of possessions to be giving away.

Key Info

MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (doubtful, hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, knee), LB Anthony Walker (out, knee), S Jordan Poyer (questionable, knee)
CLE injuries: WR Cedric Tillman (out, concussion), TE David Njoku (out, knee), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins DST
CLE DFS targets: Jerry Jeudy

MIA DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 80-90 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

De'Von Achane totes up 80 yards and a receiving touchdown. Tyler Huntley starts and throws for under 200 yards while running in a TD. Jerome Ford bangs out 50 yards and a score. DTR also throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Dolphins 17-10

Green Bay at Minnesota (PK), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Packers could still finish with 12 wins, but they're locked into a wild-card spot and a road game against the NFC South or NFC West winner, which isn't the worst way to start a postseason run. Green Bay's won five of six since its bye, with four of the victories being dominant – including last week's 34-0 shellacking of New Orleans on the frozen tundra of Lambeau – and the one loss was by a field goal in Detroit. Jordan Love hasn't committed a turnover in five straight games, leading the team to at least 30 points in each, but he also hasn't needed to do much, posting an 8:0 TD:INT and 8.4 YPA but averaging barely over 200 passing yards a game. Instead, the Pack just keep leaning on Josh Jacobs, because if it ain't broke, you don't fix it. In those last six contests, Jacobs has 666 scrimmage yards (yes, really) and 10 rushing TDs, and while he won't match his overall production from 2022 when he won a rushing title with the Raiders, he's still top five in the league in rushing yards, scrimmage yards and rushing TDs. The Lions are also the only team since mid-November to score 20-plus points against the Packers.

If anyone can match the Lions' ability to handle the Packers, it'd be the Vikings. Eight straight wins make them the hottest team in the NFL, and at 13-2 things are setting up for a potential winner-take-all game in Week 18 against Detroit that would not only decide the NFC North, but the No. 1 seed in the conference as well. Former Packers Aaron Jones isn't keeping up with Jacobs, but over the last five games he's got 440 scrimmage yards and four TDs (three rushing, one receiving). Instead, it's been Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison tearing apart secondaries to lead the charge. Darnold's got a 15:1 TD:INT over the last six games, a stretch in which Jefferson's delivered a 39-556-5 line on 56 targets and Addison's popped for a 35-508-6 line on 52 targets. Somehow, T.J. Hockenson found room for a 100-yard game in there too, although the tight end's still looking for his first 2024 TD and has mostly been an afterthought. The defense has looked somewhat vulnerable at times but also has at least one takeaway in every game, giving Darnold enough leeway to get the job done. Some team with cap space and no QB is going to make a guy who looked like a total bust 12 months ago a very wealthy man this coming offseason.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), WR Christian Watson (questionable, knee), LB Quay Walker (questionable, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (out, knee)
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: Packers DST
MIN DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Jordan Love
MIN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Jacobs amasses 120 combined yards and a TD. Love throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, finding Jayden Reed (who tops 100 yards), Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs. Jones responds with 80 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 320 yards and three TDs, one to Hockenson and two to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards). Edgerrin Cooper returns a Jones fumble to the house, and it ends up being the difference. Packers 35-34

SUNDAY NIGHT

Atlanta (+4) at Washington, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Falcons are back to holding their fate in their hands. They're tied atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay at 8-7, but Atlanta won both meetings this season, so if they win out or even just finish with the same record as the Bucs, the division title belongs to Raheem Morris' squad. If that happens, it'll be with a rookie QB under center. Michael Penix didn't look great in his first career start last week, but he didn't commit many glaring mistakes and let the ground game and defense so all the work. He was also facing the Giants, which is as easy a spot to debut in as you could get. Penix has plenty of talent around him, and he'll need to lean on it soon enough – the Falcons' defense may have steamrolled the Giants and Raiders the last two weeks, but it got steamrolled in turn by the Vikings in Week 14.

The Commanders have won three straight, and while their path to catching the Eagles in the NFC East is awfully narrow, they're on the verge of at least locking up a playoff spot. In this battle between the second and eighth overall picks in the 2024 draft, the edge would seem to be firmly with No. 2. Jayden Daniels is coming off a stunning five-TD performance in a win over Philly, tying the NFL rookie record – a mark shared by the likes of C.J. Stroud and Matthew Stafford (along with Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones.) Daniels has three fourth-quarter comeback wins in his first 15 starts, which is just silly, and he's got Terry McLaurin hurtling toward a career-best campaign. The Commanders' defense continues to look a little more like a Dan Quinn unit each week, and over the last four games Washington has six takeaways and 10 sacks, and before it got Saquon'ed last week, the run defense had held three straight opponents under 100 yards.

Key Info

ATL injuries: K Younghoe Koo (IR, hip), LB Troy Andersen (IR, knee)
WAS injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, concussion), WR Dyami Brown (out, hamstring), WR Noah Brown (IR, kidney), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST
WAS DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 9-10 mph wind, 40-90 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Bijan Robinson picks up 70 yards and a score. Penix throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Drake London. Brian Robinson busts out with 120 yards and two touchdowns. Dabiels throws for 230 yards and a TD to McLaurin while also running in a score. Commanders 31-17

SATURDAY

L.A. Chargers at New England (+4.5), o/u 42.5
Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

A win here for the Chargers locks up a wild-card spot for them, but odds are they could lose this one and still get in. Justin Herbert's coming off a big second half against the Broncos that got the Bolts their ninth win, but he could get Week 18 off if they punch their ticket here – there's little difference between the sixth and seventh seeds in the AFC, with a road game awaiting in either Buffalo or Baltimore. Gus Edwards scored two TDs against Denver, but he came out of the win nursing an ankle injury and J.K. Dobbins could be ready to rejoin the backfield, so his moment in the spotlight could be over already. Getting Will Dissly back would be nice too, but the focus is going to be on getting folks healthy for mid-January. The defense has been hit or miss lately, largely due to a secondary that's been shredded by injuries and a pass rush that remains lackluster despite its big-name stars, and the unit that coughed up 40 points and 506 yards to the Bucs a couple weeks ago can't afford to make a reappearance when it counts.

With five straight losses, the Patriots have climbed the ladder and now hold the second overall pick in the 2025 Draft, behind only the hapless Giants. Man, 2011 was a long, long time ago. New England is taking its lumps with Drake Maye, and the rookie QB has thrown an interception in seven straight games, posting a 9:8 TD:INT over that stretch while tossing in four lost fumbles for good measure. A rich man's Will Levis probably isn't what the Pats were hoping for when they drafted him, but his 69.3 percent completion rate in that span at least shows some promise, and better wideouts might help bail Maye out. Coach Jerod Mayo is teasing that Antonio Gibson could take over as the starting RB in this one, and Gibson does have a 5.1 YPC over the last six games compared to Rhamondre Stevenson's 4.0, but that feels like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. The Chargers' defense are tied for 28th in catches allowed to RBs though, so there might be some matchup logic at work here. It's not like Maye has great options to throw to anyway. Hunter Henry's had a career year but Rob Gronkowski he ain't, and the organization's consistently poor drafting in recent years has left the wideout corps bereft of upside – 2024 second-round pick Ja'Lynn Polk has shown very little so far, 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton has been a full-on bust, and 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry got cut loose a couple years ago. Not to rub it in for Pats fans, but the WRs taken immediately after those last two guys in those drafts were George Pickens and Deebo Samuel. A.J. Brown was still on the board in 2019, too. Yikes. DC DeMarcus Covington's unit has given up at least 24 points in each of those five straight losses, and the only team it's held below 20 since early October was the Matt Eberflus Bears. The Chargers miiiight be a little better coached than that.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), RB Gus Edwards (questionable, ankle), TE Will Dissly (questionable, shoulder)
NE injuries: LB Jahlani Tavai (questionable, groin), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert
NE DFS targets: Kayshon Boutte

LAC DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kimani Vidal leads the LAC backfield with 60 yards. Herbert throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Gibson gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards but does hit Boutte for a TD. Chargers 23-17 

Denver (+3.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 49.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Like the Chargers, it's win and they're in for the Broncos, which would set up a fairly meaningless Week 18 for them. A loss to one of the teams chasing them though... well, who doesn't love some messy standings drama. Bo Nix is almost at the point where the 'he's good for a rookie' qualifier isn't necessary – over his last six starts he's got a 14:5 TD:INT, 66.7 percent completion rate and 7.0 YPA, numbers which are a little more impressive when you consider everyone knows Courtland Sutton is his first, second and third read. The backfield remains a three-headed... well, monster seems generous. Your guess is as good as mine which of them, if any, might pop here, but luminaries like Rico Dowdle and Jerome Ford have gone off in recent weeks against the Bengals, so yanevahknow. Denver's won six straight games in which its defense has produced multiple takeaways, and gone 2-5 this season when it doesn't, so that could end up being the key – especially if this one end up getting played in wet, sloppy conditions.

Three straight wins have kept the Bengals mathematically alive, but Cincy has yet to beat a team this year that's headed for the playoffs. Much as I want them to make things interesting in Week 18, it's tough to get too invested in a miracle finish for them. Great as Joe Burrow has been – and he has been incredible, throwing for at least three TDs in seven straight games to keep alive the Bengals' playoff hopes through sheer willpower – the defense is simply beyond awful. Yeah, fine, it's produced 11 takeaways during the winning streak, but that was against Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Only the Jags and Panthers have given up more total first downs, and only the Cowboys have been worse at defending the red zone. Competent offenses have had no trouble marching up and down the field against the Bengals, and they've surrendered more than 30 points six times, losing all six. Imagine being so bad you regularly dig holes even Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase can't climb out of.

Key Info

DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CIN injuries: QB Joe Burrow (questionable, wrist/knee), WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams/Jaleel McLaughlin/Audric Estime
CIN DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Mike Gesicki

Weather notes: 55-65 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Nix throws for 280 yards and a second score to Lucas Krull while also running in a touchdown of his own. Chase Brown puts together 70 yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Chase and Jermaine Burton. Broncos 27-24

Arizona (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 47.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Coming out of their Week 11 bye, the Cardinals not only held the lead in the NFC West, they were the No. 3 seed in the conference. Last week's overtime loss to the Panthers, Arizona's fourth in five games since then, put the final nail in the coffin for their season. There's no one culprit for the Cards' collapse – Kyler Murray's 4:6 TD:INT in those five games didn't help, but the defense also coughed up 36 points to Carolina and 30 at home to Seattle. Jonathan Gannon probably isn't on the hot seat yet, and whatever the team's final record is in 2024, it'll be a step up from 4-13. The franchise has made the playoffs just once in the last nine seasons (a one-and-done under Kliff Kingsbury in 2021) though, and Gannon's not going to get many more chances. Trey McBride needs 42 more yards for 1,000, eight more catches for 100, and one more TD for one, so Murray's focus could be on getting his young TE across the line on those marks over the final two weeks. With the backfield banged up, that's just more reason to air it out, so maybe Marvin Harrison will be able to take some momentum into the offseason as well.

While the Cards have sagged in the standings, the Rams have roared past them, winning four straight to put them on the cusp of clinching the division title, although even if they win here, they'll need a bit of help elsewhere to sew it up. It's been a grind for the most part – the Rams have scored more than 21 points only once during the win streak and have benefitted from playing teams with little to look forward to – but of course the one exception was that wild 44-42 victory over the Bills. Matthew Stafford's interception last week was his first since Week 10, and over his last six starts he's delivered an 11:1 TD:INT with a 66.9 percent completion rate and 8.0 YPA. Kyren Williams has been carrying the offense though, not the passing game, and the third-year RB has five TDs and 493 yards on the ground over the last five games. That's been enough to support a defense that's held the Saints, Niners and Jets to 14 points or less. The Cards should put up more of a fight – getting to play spoiler against a rival can still be a strong motivator – but the Rams have won 13 of the last 16 meetings between them, although all three Arizona wins have come since 2021.

Key Info

ARI injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, knee), RB Trey Benson (questionable, ankle), RB Emari Demercado (IR, back)
LAR injuries: LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Cooper Kupp

ARI DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Conner leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards and a score. Murray throws for 240 yards and two TDs, one each to Harrison and McBride. Williams racks up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Stafford throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting Kupp and Puka Nacua. Rams 31-27

THURSDAY

Seattle at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

After losing consecutive home games to NFC North opponents, the Seahawks might actually be looking forward to a trip to Chicago in late December. The losses have them second in the NFC West, one game back of the Rams, and Seattle really kind of needs them to lose to the Cards this week the way the tiebreakers fall. The Hawks also have no chance at wild card, so the division title is their only route. Geno Smith had to sling it a bunch again last week instead of leaning on his running game, attempting more than 40 passes for the first time since Week 6 and throwing for more than 300 yards and three TDs for the first time since Week 9, but he also threw multiple picks for the first time since Week 9. All those games were losses, and there's a reason why it's Plan B for OC Ryan Grubb. Unfortunately, with both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet banged up, the team's choices could end up being limited. The defense has been quietly stingy — the Bills were the last team to top 400 yards against them back in Week 8 — but the erratic offense has put a lot of pressure on the unit the last couple weeks.

The Bears are the only team in action in an early game with nothing to play for but draft position. Chicago's lost nine straight, second-longest skid in the league behind the Giants, and things don't seem to be getting better for poor Caleb Williams. He's been sacked a painful 60 times — no other QB has even taken 50 — and repairing the offensive line has to be the first priority for whoever replaces Ryan Poles as GM. I'm assuming he gets shown the door, anyway, as Matt Eberflus was his guy. The thing is, Williams is actually playing really well while running for his life. Over the last five games, the rookie QB has a 62.8 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA and somehow a 10:0 TD:INT. OK, he's lost a fumble in three straight games, but who can blame him? Those games have also come against Minnesota and Detroit twice each, plus San Francisco when the Niners still had hope. The defense hasn't been giving Williams much help either, but again, that recent schedule has been brutal. Against a merely pretty good team as opposed to one of the NFL's elite, maybe it can keep things within striking distance for Williams.

Key Info

SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, ankle), RB Zach Charbonnet (questionable, elbow), TE Noah Fant (questionable, knee), EDGE Derick Hall (questionable, shoulder)
CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Seahawks DST
CHI DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 40-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Smith throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Metcalf and AJ Barner. D'Andre Swift leads the CHI backfield with 50 yards. Williams throws for under 200 yards but does find DJ Moore and Rome Odunze for TDs, but his attempt at a late comeback ends with a Julian Love INT. Seahawks 21-17

CHRISTMAS DAY

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 44.0
Wednesday, 1 p.m. EST

After taking care of business against the Texans last week, Kansas City needs one more win, or a Bills loss, to clinch the top seed in the AFC and another first-round bye. Ho hum. Patrick Mahomes was supposed to be dealing with a bad ankle last week, but as he always seems to do under such circumstances, he ran for a TD just to prove he could. Hollywood Brown also made his 2024 debut and looked pretty good, but it's rookie Xavier Worthy that's been the most reliable producer in the offense lately — the first-round speedster has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks along with consistent carries, and he's turned the volume into 199 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points, racking up nine takeaways during that stretch, but most of those came courtesy of Jameis Winston, so that might be tough to count on against QBs who don't think ball security has something to do with Deflategate.

Based on the last two weeks, the Steelers' MVP would seem to be George Pickens. Without the wideout in the lineup against real competition in Philly and Baltimore, Pittsburgh managed just 30 total points and 478 total yards of offense while losing both games. That's dropped the Steelers into a tie with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North, though they still (probably) hold the tiebreaker. There's also a real chance those two teams meet for a third time in the wild-card round no matter who takes the division crown. In three games without Pickens, Russell Wilson's managed a 63.0 percent completion rate and 6.2 YPA — in his last three games with Pickens to throw to, he's got a 71.6 percent completion rate and 8.7 YPA. Fortunately, Pickens' return this week from his hamstring injury will be a nice Christmas present for Russ. Pittsburgh's defense also has yet to give up more than 20 points to a team at home this season and has generated multiple takeaways in five consecutive games at Acrisure Stadium, though the only dangerous opponent they've had in that stretch was Baltimore.

Key Info

KC injuries: DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf)
PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), CB Joey Porter (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: DeAndre Hopkins
PIT DFS fades: Jaylen Warren

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and a TD to Worthy. Najee Harris manages 60 yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, and Cordarrelle Patterson kickoff return for a touchdown ends up being the difference. Steelers 24-23

Baltimore at Houston (+5.5), o/u 46.5 
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Consecutive wins since their bye have put the Ravens into a tie with the Steelers in the race for the AFC North title, but Pittsburgh's got the tiebreaker edge except in the very specific scenario where it loses to Cincinnati in Week 18 while Baltimore takes down Cleveland. Of course, if the Ravens simply finish with a better record than the Steelers — something that could be handed to them on a platter earlier in the afternoon Wednesday — none of that's even necessary. Derrick Henry got rolling again last week with 162 rushing yards, and he needs 364 more for 2,000 this season. Hey, you tell him he can't get there. Lamar Jackson's also thrown multiple TDs in four consecutive games, posting a 70.8 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA and 12:1 TD:INT in that stretch. Even though the media's already basically anointed Josh Allen as the MVP, Jackson's about to post his first 4,000-yard, 40-TD campaign, and he leads the NFL in YPA and QB rating.

The Texans are just trying to get through the last two weeks of the regular season at this point. It feels like they locked up the AFC South sometime in October, but last week's loss to Kansas City also saw Tank Dell suffer another season-ending injury, this one a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL. That leaves C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins to throw to, and that's about it — Houston's so desperate for wideout depth, they claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers. (Had Baltimore ever let him look at a playbook, maybe he could provide some sneaky info for this game.) The Texans' defense has been the engine of the squad this season, and it's the only unit that ranks in the top three in both takeaways and sacks. This game could end up being decided by which pass rush makes the bigger impact — the Ravens are second in sacks, one ahead of the Texans, but C.J. Stroud has been sacked more times (47) than anyone but Caleb Williams, while Lamar Jackson is in 25th and has been brought down only 22 times.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (out, concussion), WR Zay Flowers (questionable, shoulder), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion)
HOU injuries: WR Tank Dell (IR, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST
HOU DFS targets: Nico Collins

BAL DFS fades: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely
HOU DFS fades: John Metchie

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Henry rumbles for 140 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Joe Mixon gets held to 60 yards. Stroud throws for 270 yards and three scores, two to Collins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Dalton Schultz, but he gets sacked four times. Ravens 28-24

Last week's record: 11-5, 7-8-1 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2024 record: 161-79, 126-111-3 ATS, 129-110-1 o/u