NFL Game Previews: Saturday Matchups

SATURDAY

L.A. Chargers at New England (+4.5), o/u 42.5
Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

A win here for the Chargers locks up a wild-card spot for them, but odds are they could lose this one and still get in. Justin Herbert's coming off a big second half against the Broncos that got the Bolts their ninth win, but he could get Week 18 off if they punch their ticket here – there's little difference between the sixth and seventh seeds in the AFC, with a road game awaiting in either Buffalo or Baltimore. Gus Edwards scored two TDs against Denver, but he came out of the win nursing an ankle injury and J.K. Dobbins could be ready to rejoin the backfield, so his moment in the spotlight could be over already. Getting Will Dissly back would be nice too, but the focus is going to be on getting folks healthy for mid-January. The defense has been hit or miss lately, largely due to a secondary that's been shredded by injuries and a pass rush that remains lackluster despite its big-name stars, and the unit that coughed up 40 points and 506 yards to the Bucs a couple weeks ago can't afford to make a reappearance when it counts.

With five straight losses, the Patriots have climbed the ladder and now hold the second overall pick in the 2025 Draft, behind only the hapless Giants. Man, 2011 was a long, long time ago. New England is taking its lumps with Drake Maye, and the rookie QB has thrown an interception in seven straight games, posting a 9:8 TD:INT over that stretch while tossing in four lost fumbles for good measure. A rich man's Will Levis probably isn't what the Pats were hoping for when they drafted him, but his 69.3 percent completion rate in that span at least shows some promise, and better wideouts might help bail Maye out. Coach Jerod Mayo is teasing that Antonio Gibson could take over as the starting RB in this one, and Gibson does have a 5.1 YPC over the last six games compared to Rhamondre Stevenson's 4.0, but that feels like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. The Chargers' defense are tied for 28th in catches allowed to RBs though, so there might be some matchup logic at work here. It's not like Maye has great options to throw to anyway. Hunter Henry's had a career year but Rob Gronkowski he ain't, and the organization's consistently poor drafting in recent years has left the wideout corps bereft of upside – 2024 second-round pick Ja'Lynn Polk has shown very little so far, 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton has been a full-on bust, and 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry got cut loose a couple years ago. Not to rub it in for Pats fans, but the WRs taken immediately after those last two guys in those drafts were George Pickens and Deebo Samuel. A.J. Brown was still on the board in 2019, too. Yikes. DC DeMarcus Covington's unit has given up at least 24 points in each of those five straight losses, and the only team it's held below 20 since early October was the Matt Eberflus Bears. The Chargers miiiight be a little better coached than that.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), RB Gus Edwards (questionable, ankle), TE Will Dissly (questionable, shoulder)
NE injuries: LB Jahlani Tavai (questionable, groin), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert
NE DFS targets: Kayshon Boutte

LAC DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kimani Vidal leads the LAC backfield with 60 yards. Herbert throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Gibson gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards but does hit Boutte for a TD. Chargers 23-17 

Denver (+3.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 49.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Like the Chargers, it's win and they're in for the Broncos, which would set up a fairly meaningless Week 18 for them. A loss to one of the teams chasing them though... well, who doesn't love some messy standings drama. Bo Nix is almost at the point where the 'he's good for a rookie' qualifier isn't necessary – over his last six starts he's got a 14:5 TD:INT, 66.7 percent completion rate and 7.0 YPA, numbers which are a little more impressive when you consider everyone knows Courtland Sutton is his first, second and third read. The backfield remains a three-headed... well, monster seems generous. Your guess is as good as mine which of them, if any, might pop here, but luminaries like Rico Dowdle and Jerome Ford have gone off in recent weeks against the Bengals, so yanevahknow. Denver's won six straight games in which its defense has produced multiple takeaways, and gone 2-5 this season when it doesn't, so that could end up being the key – especially if this one end up getting played in wet, sloppy conditions.

Three straight wins have kept the Bengals mathematically alive, but Cincy has yet to beat a team this year that's headed for the playoffs. Much as I want them to make things interesting in Week 18, it's tough to get too invested in a miracle finish for them. Great as Joe Burrow has been – and he has been incredible, throwing for at least three TDs in seven straight games to keep alive the Bengals' playoff hopes through sheer willpower – the defense is simply beyond awful. Yeah, fine, it's produced 11 takeaways during the winning streak, but that was against Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Only the Jags and Panthers have given up more total first downs, and only the Cowboys have been worse at defending the red zone. Competent offenses have had no trouble marching up and down the field against the Bengals, and they've surrendered more than 30 points six times, losing all six. Imagine being so bad you regularly dig holes even Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase can't climb out of.

Key Info

DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CIN injuries: QB Joe Burrow (questionable, wrist/knee), WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams/Jaleel McLaughlin/Audric Estime
CIN DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Mike Gesicki

Weather notes: 55-65 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Nix throws for 280 yards and a second score to Lucas Krull while also running in a touchdown of his own. Chase Brown puts together 70 yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Chase and Jermaine Burton. Broncos 27-24

Arizona (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 47.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Coming out of their Week 11 bye, the Cardinals not only held the lead in the NFC West, they were the No. 3 seed in the conference. Last week's overtime loss to the Panthers, Arizona's fourth in five games since then, put the final nail in the coffin for their season. There's no one culprit for the Cards' collapse – Kyler Murray's 4:6 TD:INT in those five games didn't help, but the defense also coughed up 36 points to Carolina and 30 at home to Seattle. Jonathan Gannon probably isn't on the hot seat yet, and whatever the team's final record is in 2024, it'll be a step up from 4-13. The franchise has made the playoffs just once in the last nine seasons (a one-and-done under Kliff Kingsbury in 2021) though, and Gannon's not going to get many more chances. Trey McBride needs 42 more yards for 1,000, eight more catches for 100, and one more TD for one, so Murray's focus could be on getting his young TE across the line on those marks over the final two weeks. With the backfield banged up, that's just more reason to air it out, so maybe Marvin Harrison will be able to take some momentum into the offseason as well.

While the Cards have sagged in the standings, the Rams have roared past them, winning four straight to put them on the cusp of clinching the division title, although even if they win here, they'll need a bit of help elsewhere to sew it up. It's been a grind for the most part – the Rams have scored more than 21 points only once during the win streak and have benefitted from playing teams with little to look forward to – but of course the one exception was that wild 44-42 victory over the Bills. Matthew Stafford's interception last week was his first since Week 10, and over his last six starts he's delivered an 11:1 TD:INT with a 66.9 percent completion rate and 8.0 YPA. Kyren Williams has been carrying the offense though, not the passing game, and the third-year RB has five TDs and 493 yards on the ground over the last five games. That's been enough to support a defense that's held the Saints, Niners and Jets to 14 points or less. The Cards should put up more of a fight – getting to play spoiler against a rival can still be a strong motivator – but the Rams have won 13 of the last 16 meetings between them, although all three Arizona wins have come since 2021.

Key Info

ARI injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, knee), RB Trey Benson (questionable, ankle), RB Emari Demercado (IR, back)
LAR injuries: LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Cooper Kupp

ARI DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Conner leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards and a score. Murray throws for 240 yards and two TDs, one each to Harrison and McBride. Williams racks up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Stafford throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting Kupp and Puka Nacua. Rams 31-27

THURSDAY

Seattle at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

After losing consecutive home games to NFC North opponents, the Seahawks might actually be looking forward to a trip to Chicago in late December. The losses have them second in the NFC West, one game back of the Rams, and Seattle really kind of needs them to lose to the Cards this week the way the tiebreakers fall. The Hawks also have no chance at wild card, so the division title is their only route. Geno Smith had to sling it a bunch again last week instead of leaning on his running game, attempting more than 40 passes for the first time since Week 6 and throwing for more than 300 yards and three TDs for the first time since Week 9, but he also threw multiple picks for the first time since Week 9. All those games were losses, and there's a reason why it's Plan B for OC Ryan Grubb. Unfortunately, with both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet banged up, the team's choices could end up being limited. The defense has been quietly stingy — the Bills were the last team to top 400 yards against them back in Week 8 — but the erratic offense has put a lot of pressure on the unit the last couple weeks.

The Bears are the only team in action in an early game with nothing to play for but draft position. Chicago's lost nine straight, second-longest skid in the league behind the Giants, and things don't seem to be getting better for poor Caleb Williams. He's been sacked a painful 60 times — no other QB has even taken 50 — and repairing the offensive line has to be the first priority for whoever replaces Ryan Poles as GM. I'm assuming he gets shown the door, anyway, as Matt Eberflus was his guy. The thing is, Williams is actually playing really well while running for his life. Over the last five games, the rookie QB has a 62.8 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA and somehow a 10:0 TD:INT. OK, he's lost a fumble in three straight games, but who can blame him? Those games have also come against Minnesota and Detroit twice each, plus San Francisco when the Niners still had hope. The defense hasn't been giving Williams much help either, but again, that recent schedule has been brutal. Against a merely pretty good team as opposed to one of the NFL's elite, maybe it can keep things within striking distance for Williams.

Key Info

SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, ankle), RB Zach Charbonnet (questionable, elbow), TE Noah Fant (questionable, knee), EDGE Derick Hall (questionable, shoulder)
CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Seahawks DST
CHI DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 40-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Smith throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Metcalf and AJ Barner. D'Andre Swift leads the CHI backfield with 50 yards. Williams throws for under 200 yards but does find DJ Moore and Rome Odunze for TDs, but his attempt at a late comeback ends with a Julian Love INT. Seahawks 21-17

CHRISTMAS DAY

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 44.0
Wednesday, 1 p.m. EST

After taking care of business against the Texans last week, Kansas City needs one more win, or a Bills loss, to clinch the top seed in the AFC and another first-round bye. Ho hum. Patrick Mahomes was supposed to be dealing with a bad ankle last week, but as he always seems to do under such circumstances, he ran for a TD just to prove he could. Hollywood Brown also made his 2024 debut and looked pretty good, but it's rookie Xavier Worthy that's been the most reliable producer in the offense lately — the first-round speedster has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks along with consistent carries, and he's turned the volume into 199 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points, racking up nine takeaways during that stretch, but most of those came courtesy of Jameis Winston, so that might be tough to count on against QBs who don't think ball security has something to do with Deflategate.

Based on the last two weeks, the Steelers' MVP would seem to be George Pickens. Without the wideout in the lineup against real competition in Philly and Baltimore, Pittsburgh managed just 30 total points and 478 total yards of offense while losing both games. That's dropped the Steelers into a tie with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North, though they still (probably) hold the tiebreaker. There's also a real chance those two teams meet for a third time in the wild-card round no matter who takes the division crown. In three games without Pickens, Russell Wilson's managed a 63.0 percent completion rate and 6.2 YPA — in his last three games with Pickens to throw to, he's got a 71.6 percent completion rate and 8.7 YPA. Fortunately, Pickens' return this week from his hamstring injury will be a nice Christmas present for Russ. Pittsburgh's defense also has yet to give up more than 20 points to a team at home this season and has generated multiple takeaways in five consecutive games at Acrisure Stadium, though the only dangerous opponent they've had in that stretch was Baltimore.

Key Info

KC injuries: DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf)
PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), CB Joey Porter (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: DeAndre Hopkins
PIT DFS fades: Jaylen Warren

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and a TD to Worthy. Najee Harris manages 60 yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, and Cordarrelle Patterson kickoff return for a touchdown ends up being the difference. Steelers 24-23

Baltimore at Houston (+5.5), o/u 46.5 
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Consecutive wins since their bye have put the Ravens into a tie with the Steelers in the race for the AFC North title, but Pittsburgh's got the tiebreaker edge except in the very specific scenario where it loses to Cincinnati in Week 18 while Baltimore takes down Cleveland. Of course, if the Ravens simply finish with a better record than the Steelers — something that could be handed to them on a platter earlier in the afternoon Wednesday — none of that's even necessary. Derrick Henry got rolling again last week with 162 rushing yards, and he needs 364 more for 2,000 this season. Hey, you tell him he can't get there. Lamar Jackson's also thrown multiple TDs in four consecutive games, posting a 70.8 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA and 12:1 TD:INT in that stretch. Even though the media's already basically anointed Josh Allen as the MVP, Jackson's about to post his first 4,000-yard, 40-TD campaign, and he leads the NFL in YPA and QB rating.

The Texans are just trying to get through the last two weeks of the regular season at this point. It feels like they locked up the AFC South sometime in October, but last week's loss to Kansas City also saw Tank Dell suffer another season-ending injury, this one a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL. That leaves C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins to throw to, and that's about it — Houston's so desperate for wideout depth, they claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers. (Had Baltimore ever let him look at a playbook, maybe he could provide some sneaky info for this game.) The Texans' defense has been the engine of the squad this season, and it's the only unit that ranks in the top three in both takeaways and sacks. This game could end up being decided by which pass rush makes the bigger impact — the Ravens are second in sacks, one ahead of the Texans, but C.J. Stroud has been sacked more times (47) than anyone but Caleb Williams, while Lamar Jackson is in 25th and has been brought down only 22 times.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (out, concussion), WR Zay Flowers (questionable, shoulder), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion)
HOU injuries: WR Tank Dell (IR, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST
HOU DFS targets: Nico Collins

BAL DFS fades: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely
HOU DFS fades: John Metchie

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Henry rumbles for 140 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Joe Mixon gets held to 60 yards. Stroud throws for 270 yards and three scores, two to Collins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Dalton Schultz, but he gets sacked four times. Ravens 28-24

Last week's record: 11-5, 7-8-1 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2024 record: 161-79, 126-111-3 ATS, 129-110-1 o/u