This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Denver (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 41.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Broncos are oh-so-close to clinching a playoff spot, needing only not to lose Thursday. Even if they blow it against the Bolts, a combination of losses by the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts the next three weeks will do it. Denver's won four straight, and has completely screwed up my score-generating algorithm, winning by an average score of about 35-18 but getting three defensive touchdowns along the way. Bo Nix has started to look like a rookie again, tossing five INTs in the last two games against only four TDs, and defenses seem to have figured out that Courtland Sutton is the only Bronco they really need to worry about. Not that that knowledge has helped them slow Sutton down — he's reached 70 receiving yards or gotten into the end zone, or both, in seven consecutive games while racking up a 45-601-4 line on 66 targets. DC Vance Joseph's aggressive unit makes them a potential threat to just about anyone in the playoffs, but current seeding would send the Broncos to Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, and if they fall to the seventh seed they're probably headed to Buffalo instead. In Year Two of the Sean Payton Era, they may have to settle for a "happy to be here" one and done.
The Chargers hobble into this one having dropped three of their last four games, but they're still in a wild-card spot and two
THURSDAY NIGHT
Denver (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 41.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Broncos are oh-so-close to clinching a playoff spot, needing only not to lose Thursday. Even if they blow it against the Bolts, a combination of losses by the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts the next three weeks will do it. Denver's won four straight, and has completely screwed up my score-generating algorithm, winning by an average score of about 35-18 but getting three defensive touchdowns along the way. Bo Nix has started to look like a rookie again, tossing five INTs in the last two games against only four TDs, and defenses seem to have figured out that Courtland Sutton is the only Bronco they really need to worry about. Not that that knowledge has helped them slow Sutton down — he's reached 70 receiving yards or gotten into the end zone, or both, in seven consecutive games while racking up a 45-601-4 line on 66 targets. DC Vance Joseph's aggressive unit makes them a potential threat to just about anyone in the playoffs, but current seeding would send the Broncos to Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, and if they fall to the seventh seed they're probably headed to Buffalo instead. In Year Two of the Sean Payton Era, they may have to settle for a "happy to be here" one and done.
The Chargers hobble into this one having dropped three of their last four games, but they're still in a wild-card spot and two games up on the trio of 6-8 teams I listed above. They also get the Pats and Raiders the last two weeks of the season, even if they're both road games, so there's no reason to panic. Yet. The injuries are piling up, though — Justin Herbert's ankle is an issue again, the running game hasn't been able to replace J.K. Dobbins, Will Dissly's set to miss a second straight game, and the secondary has taken some hits too. Herbert hasn't reached 220 passing yards in four consecutive games, managing a 64.8 percent completion rate, 6.3 YPA and 3:1 TD:INT over that stretch, and that's simply not enough to cover for a defense that just coughed up 40 points to Tampa Bay. Maybe Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack — a combined 1.5 sacks during that four-game swoon — can get going, but this isn't a good matchup for it. Nix hasn't been sacked more than twice since the Ravens got to him four times in Week 9.
Key Info
DEN injuries: RB Jaleel McLaughlin (out, quadricep)
LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), TE Will Dissly (out, shoulder), TE Hayden Hurst (IR, hip), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, groin)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Troy Franklin, Broncos DST
LAC DFS targets: none
DEN DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Gus Edwards/Kimani Vidal, Hayden Hurst/Stone Smartt
Weather notes: indoors
The Scoop
Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Sutton and Franklin while also running in a score. Edwards grinds out 50 yards. Herbert throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Ladd McConkey and Scott Matlock, but he gets sacked five times. A fumble return TD by Bosa keeps the score somewhat close. Broncos 31-21
Last week's record: 12-4, 13-3 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2024 record: 150-74, 119-103-2 ATS, 118-105-1 o/u
