NFL Game Previews: Broncos-Chargers Matchup

Denver (+5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 45.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Wasn't this season supposed to be a repeat of the Payton Manning experience for the Broncos? I guess in a way it is, only they skipped right over all the success and got right to the broken-down portion of their star quarterback's career. Russell Wilson's poor start to the season maybe has an explanation in the muscle tear at the back of his shoulder he's playing through, and while the team says it's a relatively recent development, they might want to keep that to themselves. With Javonte Williams also lost for the season, what seemed on paper like it could be one of the top offenses in the league is sitting 31st in points per game. Denver's scored more than 16 points once, and that came in the one game the defense allowed more than 17. Whoops. This team is responsible for two of the worst games ever televised (a Week 3 11-10 win over the Niners and last week's painful 12-9 overtime loss to the Colts), but here it is in a standalone game again. I know Halloween's coming up, NFL, but this isn't "ooh, spooky" kind of horror stuff, this is the football equivalent of a French New Extremity film. Things are being shown to the public at large that can't be unseen. Congress really needs to pass a law making sure this never happens again, and if not Congress, maybe The Hague.

At 3-2, the Chargers are at least keeping Kansas City within striking distance, though having already lost the first meeting of the year against their AFC West rivals, simply staying close won't be good enough to win the division title. Austin Ekeler's on a roll, piling up 308 scrimmage yards and five TDs over the last two games, and Justin Herbert hasn't really missed much of a beat with Keenan Allen sidelined since Week 1. The defense has been the sore point, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed and 30th in points per game allowed, and Joey Bosa's absence has left a bigger hole than Allen's has. Herbert's certainly capable of out-scoring just about anyone, especially this particular opponent, but Brandon Staley and defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill will have their work cut out for them fixing the unit on the team's Week 8 bye.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Williams (IR, knee), RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, neck), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), TE Eric Saubert (questionable, ankle), LT Garett Boles (IR, leg), LT Tom Compton (PUP-R, back), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, back), RG Quinn Meinerz (questionable, hamstring), RT Billy Turner (questionable, knee), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, knee) EDGE Randy Gregory (IR, knee), CB K'Waun Williams (questionable, wrist), CB Ronald Darby (IR, knee), S Justin Simmons (IR-R, quadriceps), S Caden Sterns (questionable, hip)
LAC injuries: WR Allen (questionable, hamstring), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, biceps), RT Trey Pipkins (questionable, knee), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, quadriceps), EDGE Bosa (IR, groin)

DEN DFS targets: Gordon $6,400 DK / $6,900 FD and Mike Boone $5,400 DK / $5,600 FD (LAC 32nd in YPC allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), KJ Hamler $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: Jerry Jeudy $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (LAC first in DVOA vs. WR2)
LAC DFS fades: Herbert $7,000 DK / $8,200 FD (DEN second in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: DEN 32nd in red-zone conversions at 21.4 percent; LAC t-19th in red-zone defense at 57.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DEN, average score 22-19 LAC, average margin of victory nine points. The home team has won five straight meetings by an average score of 27-18 

The Scoop: Boone surprisingly leads the DEN backfield with 90 combined yards and a touchdown, while Gordon gains 50 yards. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Ekeler zips for 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer. Chargers 27-23

San Francisco at Atlanta (+5.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

No disrespect intended to that big NFC East clash Sunday night, but any discussion of who the best team in the conference is probably needs to start here. Yeah, the 49ers are only 3-2, but one loss came due to weather and the other due to whatever bad mojo was floating around at Mile High and affecting both teams when they faced the Broncos in that bizarre 11-10 clunker. The defense has been elite despite a revolving door to the trainer's room and the offense is coming around now that Jimmy Garoppolo has had a chance to shake off the rust. Tevin Coleman's sudden eruption last week came on only 17 offensive snaps, and the perennial disappointment is still behind Jeff Wilson on the depth chart, but it's nice to see he still had at least one more random multi-TD performance left in the tank.

The Falcons are 2-3, but the house of cards they'd built to get those two wins has fallen apart. With a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield they were able to keep up with and occasionally outscore the opposition; with Patterson on the shelf, Marcus Mariota doesn't have enough juice to pull that off. Kyle Pitts' vanishing act hasn't helped matters either, but it's hard to tell whether that's on him, Mariota or offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, who had no problem feeding his tight end the ball last year but now has a shiny new toy to play with in Drake London. With Deion Jones sent packing before he was even healthy enough to play a game this season, there's only two big veteran contracts left on the roster (and only two players left from that Super Bowl loss) in Grady Jarrett and Jake Matthews, so the rebuild is nearly complete — well, the teardown portion of the rebuild, anyway.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, knee), LT Trent Williams (out, ankle), LG Aaron Banks (questionable, knee), DE Nick Bosa (questionable, groin), DT Javon Kinlaw (out, knee), DT Arik Armstead (out, foot), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (IR, knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (out, knee), CB Jason Verrett (PUP-R, knee), S Jimmie Ward (out, hand)
ATL injuries: RB Patterson (IR, knee), RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), TE Pitts (questionable, hamstring), LG Elijah Wilkinson (questionable, knee), LB Mykal Walker (questionable, groin), CB Isaiah Oliver (IR-R, knee)

SF DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: KhaDarel Hodge $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Mariota $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (SF third in passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Tyler Allgeier $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (SF first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: ATL 17th in third-down conversions at 39.6 percent; SF third in third-down defense at 30.0 percent

The Scoop: Wilson racks up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 250 yards and three scores, finding Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Allgeier gets held to 40 yards. Mariota managed to run in a TD, but he throws for less than 200 yards, gets picked off twice and fumbles twice, one of which gets scooped up by Dre Greenlaw and taken to the house. 49ers 35-10

New England (+3) at Cleveland, o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Patriots are only 2-3, but the classic Belichick rope-a-dope is already in effect as the team is coming off an overtime loss at Lambeau and a shutout win over what at the time was the highest-scoring offense in the league, all with third-string rookie Bailey Zappe under center. Quarterback is far from the only spot at which New England is dealing with injuries, but it never seems to matter much. Next man up, do your job, etc., etc. If there's one guy the Pats can't afford to lose, it's probably Matthew Judon, who has at least one sack in every game and has dragged the team into the top 10 in sacks despite an otherwise mediocre pass rush that's seventh in blitz rate but doesn't have much to show for it, other than Judon's streak. Considering the Browns have allowed a league-low five sacks (tied with the Chargers), the veteran edge rusher's got his work cut out for him extending it another week.

Cleveland's also 2-3, but the three losses have been by a combined six points after they let another win slip away last week against the Bolts. Jacoby Brissett is fine when he doesn't actually have to do much, but ask him to engineer a game-winning drive and he's just as likely to throw a pick in the end zone. (It also didn't help that rookie Cade York picked the worst possible time to miss his first two FG attempts of the year.) Defensive coordinator Joe Woods is getting labeled as the fall guy, and the unit is playing below its talent level, sitting in the bottom 10 in yards per play, takeaways and sacks against what should have been a cushy schedule through the first month. About the only thing that's gone according to plan is the run game, as Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards while Kareem Hunt has chipped in three TDs. That should have been enough to get the Browns through to Deshaun Watson's debut in December, but apparently not.

The Skinny

NE injuries: QB Mac Jones (questionable, ankle), RB Damien Harris (questionable, hamstring), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, knee), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, hamstring), CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, ankle)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), DE Jadeveon Clowney (out, ankle), LB Anthony Walker (IR, quadriceps), LB Deion Jones (IR-R, shoulder), CB Denzel Ward (out, concussion)

NE DFS targets: Rhamondre Stevenson $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD (CLE 32nd in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
CLE DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Amari Cooper $5,900 DK / $7,100 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CLE fifth in third-down conversions at 44.3 percent; NE 23rd in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Stevenson has another big game with 120 combined yards and a TD. Zappe starts and throws for less than 200 yards but does hit DeVante Parker for a score. Chubb bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Brissett throws for 220 yards and a second TD to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Browns 24-17

N.Y. Jets (+7) at Green Bay, o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Jets' margin of victory last week over the Dolphins was deceptive, but the fact that they're above .500 might not be. You may have missed your window on getting great odds for Breece Hall to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he's far from the only talented young skill player on this roster. The only real question is whether Zach Wilson is the QB to lead them to the next level. Last year's second overall pick didn't have to do much against Miami with the backfield running wild, but at some point Wilson's going to have to show something if this offense is going to start humming. In the meantime, Robert Saleh's defense is quietly in the top 10 in yards per play and takeaways, so the point prevention should come eventually.

The Packers are also 3-2, and while there's been a general overreaction to last week's London loss, the team definitely isn't playing up to its potential. Since taking over for Brett Favre as the starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has never had a season in which he's thrown for fewer than 30 touchdowns with a sub-7.0 YPA, but that's what he's staring at in 2022 if things don't turn around. Whether it's due to a lack of trust in his receiving corps or just a creaky 38-year-old arm, he's just not taking shots down the field the way he used to. Maybe it's a bit of both — his 3.8 air yards per completion is last in the league, though to be fair, that's not exactly a metric predictive of passing success (the top three are Jameis Winston, Mac Jones and Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields led the league last year).

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: LT Duane Brown (questionable, shoulder), RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RT George Fant (IR, knee), RT Max Mitchell (IR, knee)
GB injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (IR, hamstring), WR Christian Watson (out, hamstring), EDGE Rashan Gary (questionable, toe)

NYJ DFS targets: Elijah Moore $4,900 DK / $5,200 FD (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: Romeo Doubs $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

NYJ DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB eighth in third-down conversions at 42.1 percent; NYJ 28th in third-down defense at 48.4 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 14 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hall piles up 100 combined yards and a touchdown, while Michael Carter adds 50 scrimmage yards. Wilson throws for 210 yards and a TD to Moore. Aaron Jones leads the GB backfield with 80 yards and a score, while AJ Dillon adds 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Doubs and Allen Lazard. Packers 21-17

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Oh those rascally Jags, making people think they might be for real this year. It's one thing to lose to the Eagles in Philadelphia, but dropping a home game to the Texans is just embarrassing. Trevor Lawrence had his worst performance of the season against Houston (and somehow posting his highest passing yards total doing it), and as long as the second-year QB remains maddeningly inconsistent, this team is going to follow suit. Travis Etienne continues to be a breakout waiting to happen, and the Jacksonville backfield is starting to look a little like the one in Dallas, where the veteran (James Robinson here, Ezekiel Elliott there) does the little things the coaching staff likes to keep themselves at the top of the depth chart, even though they're clearly the less dangerous option with the ball in their hands. If the offense can just get going, though, this still looks a possible playoff team, or even the eventual AFC South champs. The Jaguars defense is eighth in yards per play allowed and tied for fourth in points per game allowed.

The Colts barely escaped last Thursday against the Broncos, evening their record at 2-2-1, but I'm just not optimistic about their ceiling. Getting shut out in Jacksonville in Week 2 actually wasn't out of place for Indy, as the team has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season. Jonathan Taylor will miss another game with an ankle injury, but he hasn't been enough on his own even when healthy, and Nyheim Hines is also out with a concussion. That leaves Deon Jackson as the likely starting back, with an assist from Phillip Lindsay. The trade for Matt Ryan has been a disaster, as well. He's only thrown for five touchdowns and committed 10 turnovers (seven INTs, three lost fumbles of 11 fumbles total), and no team is going to be successful with a QB who coughs up the ball that much. Ryan also doesn't have many weapons at his disposal. Michael Pittman's been fine and Alec Pierce is coming along, but aside from force-feeding tight ends in the end zone, the veteran QB hasn't gotten much production out of anyone else. If he can't provide another dimension to the offense, they might have to stumble to the top of a mediocre division to sneak into the postseason.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, ankle), WR Marvin Jones (questionable, hamstring), LG Ben Bartch (IR, knee), LB Foye Oluokun (questionable, calf)
IND injuries: RB Taylor (out, ankle), RB Nyheim Hines (out, concussion), DE Kwity Paye (out, ankle), LB Shaquille Leonard (out, nose), S Julian Blackmon (questionable, ankle)

JAC DFS targets: Jaguars DST $3,000 DK / $4,300 FD (t-5th in takeaways, IND t-31st in sacks allowed, 30th in giveaways)
IND DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: Robinson $6,100 DK / $6,700 FD and Etienne $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed), MJones $4,600 DK / $5,500 FD (IND first in DVOA vs. WR3)
IND DFS fades: Parris Campbell $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (JAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: IND t-28th in red-zone conversions at 40.0 percent; JAC t-15th in red-zone defense at 57.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 JAC, average score 23-16 JAC, average margin of victory 15 points. IND has won four straight meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium by an average score of 28-18

The Scoop: Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 70 combined yards, while Robinson adds 50. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Lindsay leads the IND backfield with 60 yards, while Jackson adds 40. Ryan throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Pierce, his first in the NFL, but also tosses a pick-six to Rayshawn Jenkins that ices the game. Jaguars 24-13

Minnesota at Miami (+3.5), o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It doesn't really feel like it, but the Vikings at 4-1 and on top of the NFC North after three consecutive one-score wins over less than stellar, or at least less than 100 percent healthy, competition. It's a testament to how much talent this roster has on offense that it's put together that streak despite some really erratic play from Kirk Cousins; Justin Jefferson's had two huge performances, and the backfield duo of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison has combined for five touchdowns despite Cook playing through his annual shoulder issue. Cousins did look a little more like his peak self last week against the Bears, though, topping a 75 percent completion rate for the first time this season and nearly putting together his first 300-yard game. If that's a sign he's getting more comfortable in the new scheme installed by Kevin O'Connell and first-year OC Wes Phillips, Cousins could come out firing after next week's bye.

Minnesota gets another wounded opponent too, as all signs point to the Dolphins having third-string rookie Skylar Thompson under center. The seventh-round pick out of Kansas State showed a decent enough arm and mobility on his college game film and could potentially make it as an NFL backup in the long run, but the negatives — a lack of touch and accuracy on deeper throws, and a lack of confidence and anticipation in his reads — are far more likely to be apparent in his first career start, just as they were last week when he was pressed into action against the Jets. Teddy Bridgewater will probably be active as his backup and could come in if Thompson really struggles, but the revised concussion protocols didn't allow the veteran to practice enough this week to start. Miami fans inclined to complain about this may want to reflect upon a) why the protocols got revised, and b) how many quarterbacks they're comfortable sacrificing this season. The Dolphins' overall trajectory is pointed up as a franchise, and that 3-0 start shouldn't be written off as a fluke, but the focus should be on getting the whole roster healthy — quarterback to cornerback — then putting together a late-season run, sneaking into the playoffs and seeing what happens. If they do have a path to a win, though, it likely comes via the same secret weapon that allowed them to upset the Bills, namely humid conditions for their northern opponent is not prepared.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Mattison (questionable, shoulder), S Lewis Cine (IR, leg) 
MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (out, concussion), QB Bridgewater (questionable, concussion), RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, knee), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, toe), RT Austin Jackson (IR-R, ankle), CB Byron Jones (PUP-R, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Cousins $6,000 DK / $7,600 FD (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA, 28th in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Irv Smith $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
MIA DFS targets: Mike Gesicki $3,100 DK / $4,800 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIN DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN seventh in third-down conversions at 42.9 percent; MIA t-29th in third-down defense at 49.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s (low 90s with humidity), 14 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook gallops for 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Cousins throws for 310 yards and two more TDs, hitting Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and Smith. Mostert plays but Chase Edmonds leads the MIA backfield with 70 combined yards. Thompson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does run in one touchdown and throw another to Tyreek Hill. Vikings 27-17

Cincinnati at New Orleans (+2), o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Could the Bengals' offensive line be getting it together? Joe Burrow's only been sacked four times in the last three games, a huge improvement on the first two weeks, though to be fair, two of those better blocking performances came against teams ranked in the bottom six in the league in pressure rate (Baltimore and Miami). Keeping your franchise QB upright is never a bad idea, though, and Burrow's got a 65.7 percent completion rate, 6:1 TD:INT and 7.6 YPA over those three games. He's capable of better, but it's a start. Joe Mixon's still on pace for about 400 touches, so getting the passing game going should help keep him healthy and on the field for the stretch run too, but this is still an offense playing way below its capabilities. The Bengals are 31st in yards per play, for pity's sake. That's criminal given the talent on the roster. (Hilariously, their Super Bowl LVI opponents, the Rams, are 32nd).

The Saints snapped out of their funk last week with a wild win over the Seahawks, but they needed a ridiculous four-TD performance from Taysom Hill to do it. That's seems, uhh, unsustainable. Jameis Winston remains sidelined, and Andy Dalton has looked every inch an aging and limited backup, but the Red Ryder BB Gun (nope, I will never let the greatest burn in NFL history go) still has a decent supporting cast around him despite a bunch of injuries. Alvin Kamara looked like he was back at full speed last week, and Chris Olave (if he plays) has been the class of a deep rookie wideout group, putting together four consecutive games with either 80-plus receiving yards or a TD. With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry already ruled out, though, if Olave's sidelined it could mean another week of little more than Kamara plus Taysom-led trickeration ... only this time, the opposition should be expecting it, and the secondary may not be fit enough to slow down one of the league's top young QBs.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, groin), LT Jonah Williams (questionable, knee)
NO injuries: QB Winston (questionable, back), WR Thomas (out, foot), WR Olave (questionable, concussion), WR Landry (out, ankle), WR Deonte Harty (out, foot), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), CB Paulson Adebo (questionable, knee), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, abdomen), S Marcus Maye (questionable, ribs)

CIN DFS targets: Tyler Boyd $5,100 DK / $6,000 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: Hurst $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO t-14th in third-down conversions at 39.7 percent; CIN ninth in third-down defense at 32.8 percent

The Scoop: Mixon totes up 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Ja'Marr Chase and Boyd. Kamara jets for 110 combined yards and a score. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Marquez Callaway. Bengals 27-14

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants (+5), o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Ravens continue to alternate wins and losses, which might be a nervous pattern for Baltimore fans considering the losses have come in even-numbered weeks, but every pattern gets broken eventually, right? The team has two encouraging trends working in its favor — J.K. Dobbins' yards per carry gets better every week, and the secondary is about as healthy as it's going to get. On the other hand, Lamar Jackson's two worst performances of the year have come in the last two games, cooling the early MVP talk. It's perhaps not a coincidence that Jackson's taken a step back as a passer while his top wideout, Rashod Bateman, has been hurt, as the QB just doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence in anyone else aside from Mark Andrews. The tight end has come up big every time he's seen double-digit targets this season, but he can only do so much by himself. I mean, he's not Travis Kelce.

The Giants head into this one at ... wait, that can't be right. Brian Daboll should probably win coach of the year just for getting this ramshackle roster to four wins, but his magic has especially been performed at halftime. Whatever Al Pacino nonsense he's spewing in the locker room is working, because Big Blue has outscored the opposition by an average of 15-8 in the second half,  and only the Cowboys (the one team to beat them) won the final two quarters against them. Heck, last week the Packers wouldn't have gotten any second-half points at all if punter Jamie Gillan hadn't taken a deliberate safety at the end of the game in exchange for better field position. (It wound up not mattering, since Aaron Rodgers couldn't get his hail mary off anyway and got sacked.) Darius Slayton maybe saved his career last week by bailing out an injury-ravaged receiving corps, and Daniel Jones has somewhat miraculously only committed three turnovers through five games, but this offense still only goes as far as Saquon Barkley can take them. The fifth-year back is already leading the league in scrimmage yards, topping 100 in four of five games, but the scary part is his numbers actually have room to grow as he's not on pace to get close to his career highs in catches or targets. Whether the team wants its oft-injured star to take aim at 400 touches is a completely different question, but Daboll doesn't have a lot of other options.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (doubtful, hamstring), RB Gus Edwards (PUP-R, knee), WR Bateman (out, foot), LG Ben Cleveland (out, foot), EDGE Justin Houston (out, groin), CB Kyle Fuller (IR, knee), S Marcus Williams (IR, wrist) 
NYG injuries: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee), WR Kadarius Toney (out, hamstring), WR Kenny Golladay (out, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), DE Azeez Ojulari (doubtful, calf), DE Leonard Williams (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: Dobbins $5,500 DK / $6,800 FD (NYG 27th in YPC allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NYG DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Richie James $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (BAL fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: NYG 26th in third-down conversions at 35.9 percent; BAL 11th in third-down defense at 34.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dobbins busts out for 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 240 yards and runs for 60 more, finding Andrews for a score. Barkley also picks up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones throws for 220 yards and doubles his giveaway total on the year, getting picked off once and fumbling twice. Ravens 23-13

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (+8), o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I guess it's fair game to wonder if Tom Brady's personal life is affecting him on the field, or at least it would have been before he put up consecutive games with more than 350 passing yards. (I'm more focused on his petulant little kick at my man Grady Jarrett than all that TMZ fodder anyway.) The Bucs' receiving healthy is just about at full strength — they couldn't possibly have been counting on getting a full season out of Julio Jones — and Leonard Fournette is rumbling, which leaves defensive coordinators with few good choices. Frankly, Tampa Bay appears poised to run away with the NFC South, as the Saints might be too banged up to keep pace and the Falcons and Panthers are, well, the Falcons and Panthers. Looking at their upcoming schedule, the Bucs could easily be 8-2 heading into their bye, and there might not be anyone else in the division at .500 at that point.

That's not the path the Steelers are on, though. The switch to Kenny Pickett did put a little spark in the passing game, but just a little one, and it came at the same time as the secondary was being dismantled by Josh Allen. Now 1-4, Pittsburgh's headed for a top-5 draft pick in 2023, which means the pressure is on Pickett to prove the team doesn't need to go back to the well for a quarterback in next year's loaded class and can instead use a premium pick on the defensive side of the ball, as God intended the Steelers to do. George Pickens is also demonstrating he wasn't just a preseason mirage, but the offense remains hampered by poor play from Najee Harris. Harris says his foot is no longer a problem, but he's still got a feeble 3.2 YPC, and that lack of production isn't coming behind the line. His 2.0 yards per carry prior to contact isn't great, but his 1.2 yards after contact is abysmal, and only Joe Mixon has a lower mark among RBs with at least 50 carries. He gained 2.2 yards per carry after contact as a rookie, so that's a lot of production he's leaving on the ground. The second-year back also hasn't been as involved as a receiver, though that one can be chalked up to the QB issues. Really, though, in this one the issues on offense pale in comparison to having to face Brady without your top pass rusher and with multiple missing starters in the secondary.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Jones (doubtful, knee), LG Aaron Stinnie, (IR, knee), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (out, foot), EDGE Shaquil Barrett (questionable, illness), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (out, quadriceps), S Mike Edwards (questionable, elbow), S Logan Ryan (out, foot)
PIT injuries: TE Pat Freiermuth (out, concussion), EDGE T.J. Watt (IR, pectoral/knee), CB Akhello Witherspoon (out, hamstring), CB Cameron Sutton (out, hamstring), CB Levi Wallace (out, concussion), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (out, knee)

TB DFS targets: Brady $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (PIT t-30th in passing yards per game allowed, t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Buccaneers DST $3,900 DK / $5,000 FD (third in sacks, t-5th in takeaways, PIT t-28th in giveaways)
PIT DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: Cameron Brate $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD and Cade Otton $2,900 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: Pickett $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (TB first in passing DVOA, fifth in YPA allowed), Chase Claypool $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: TB t-14th in third-down conversions at 39.7 percent; PIT 26th in third-down defense at 46.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Fournette churns out 80 yards and a TD. Brady throws for 320 yards and three scores, hitting Mike Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Russell Gage once. Harris manages 50 yards. Pickett throws for 230 yards and his first career NFL touchdown to Pickens, but he gets picked off three times. Buccaneers 28-13

Carolina (+10.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 41 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Panthers owner David Tepper tried to claim his decision to fire Matt Rhule was because the team showed a "loss of intensity" in last week's rout at the hands of the 49ers, but it probably has a lot more to do with making sure Rhule is on the market for all the high-profile college coaching gigs opening up, so Tepper can get off the hook for as much of his remaining contract as possible. Carolina's coaching staff is now one big pile of guys looking for redemption narratives, with former Cardinals coach Steve Wilks getting the interim tag while Al Holcomb (Wilks' defensive coordinator in Arizona) takes over that job and former Giants OC/head coach Ben McAdoo runs the offense. None were exactly successful in their old gigs, and this won't be the best situation to change the general perception of their coaching skills, but hey, there's almost nowhere to go but up from 1-4, right? Right? Uh oh. The club says it isn't going to trade Christian McCaffrey, but a mass exodus of other veterans before the trade deadline wouldn't be a surprise, especially if the front office is willing to pay people to take Robbie Anderson's contract and such. (Then again, see Tepper's motive for firing Rhule when he did.) The most interesting name who might be on the market is Brian Burns — young, talented pass rushers almost never get traded, so the Panthers could be able to get a decent haul of draft assets for him before he starts to get expensive in 2023. As for this game? Fourth-string QB P.J. Walker and his career 2:8 TD:INT will be under center. 'Nuff said.

The Rams have begun their Super Bowl defense by looking like nothing more than a gatekeeper, beating two struggling teams (Atlanta and Arizona) and losing to three teams that seem like legit contenders (Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas). Given the category Carolina falls into, a 3-3 mark heading into their Week 7 bye seems pretty safe. Los Angeles has some turmoil of its own happening, though, as Cam Akers is suddenly gone from the team, at least for this week. Coach Sean McVay hasn't said anything other than the running back is "working through some things," which is both vague and ominous — thanks, coach! Darrell Henderson should take on a big workload with only Malcolm Brown backing him up, but the Akers situation just puts more pressure on Matthew Stafford to get his, err, act together. He did post his first 300-yard game of the season last week, but a 5:7 TD:INT through five games and losing more than a yard off last season's YPA aren't going to get the Rams back to the playoffs, much less back to the Super Bowl. Even Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are banged up. This should still be an easy win for the Rams even so, but this is the chaos season, after all ...

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Baker Mayfield (doubtful, ankle), QB Sam Darnold (IR, ankle), QB Matt Corral (IR, foot), WR Anderson (questionable, illness), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, shoulder), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (questionable, ribs), CB CJ Henderson (questionable, knee), S Jeremy Chinn (IR, hamstring)
LAR injuries: RB Akers (out, personal), WR Kupp (questionable, foot), WR Van Jefferson (IR, knee), TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, ankle), LG David Edwards (IR, concussion), C Brian Allen (out, knee), C Coleman Shelton (IR, ankle), RG Tremayne Anchrum (IR, lower leg), RG Logan Bruss (IR, knee), DE Donald (questionable, foot)

CAR DFS targets: DJ Moore $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD (LAR 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Panthers DST $2,400 DK / $3,700 FD (LAR t-31st in sacks allowed, 31st in giveaways)
LAR DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: McCaffrey $8,300 DK / $8,700 FD (LAR fifth in rushing DVOA, third in passing DVOA vs. RB), Shi Smith $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (LAR sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 27th in red-zone conversions at 41.7 percent; LAR fourth in red-zone defense at 36.4 percent

The Scoop: Henderson rambles for 80 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Kupp and Allen Robinson. McCaffrey picks up 80 combined yards. Walker throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Moore. Rams 21-13

Arizona at Seattle (+2.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Cardinals are 2-3, but their two wins came against the Panthers (which hardly counts) and against a Raiders team that literally handed them the winning score in overtime, so their weighed record should be more like 0.5-4.5. Kyler Murray has yet to post a YPA better than 6.5 in any game this season, which seems like a big part of the problem, but whether the cause is his play or Kliff Kingsbury's play-calling is a bigger mystery. Murray did run for a TD in each of Arizona's wins, for what that's worth. This will be the last game before DeAndre Hopkins returns from his suspension, so maybe that will get Kingsbury to shake up the playbook a little. James Conner is shockingly sidelined and Darrel Williams is also out, so that leaves the backfield in the hands of Drunken Master Eno Benjamin, who is one absurd, herky-jerky touchdown run away from being a fan favorite in Arizona for life.

Speaking of shocking injuries, anyone who invested in Rashaad Penny during draft season (raises hand sheepishly) should be thankful they got what production they did out of him before he suffered his inevitable season-ending injury. I feel bad for the guy — he's played 18 games the last three seasons — but you didn't need to be Nostradamus to see this one coming. Second-round pick Kenneth Walker, who I didn't wind up with any shares of despite my best efforts, will now head a Pete Carroll backfield, and he looked the part on last week's nice 69-yard TD run. This is Geno Smith's offense, though, and there simply is no better story in the NFL this season. When he takes the field Sunday for his sixth game of the season, it'll be his highest games played total since 2014, as the 32-year-old got pigeon-holed as a backup way too early in his career. Or maybe not — maybe he needed those years and fights for roster spots to turn him into the QB he is today. There's no need to get too philosophical about it. Smith's leading the league in completion percentage and QB rating, but it's not because he's dinking and dunking or because Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are working miracles with the ball in their hands. He's second in the league in air yards per attempt and third-last in yards after catch per completion. Smith is just throwing bombs and completing them. Ever the comedian, Carroll suggested this week that Drew Lock was "nipping at his heels" in practice and keeping the pressure on Geno. Riiiiiight.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Conner (out, ribs), RB Williams (out, knee), WR Hopkins (out, suspension), C Rodney Hudson (questionable, knee), K Matt Prater (out, hip), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, groin), CB Trayvon Mullen (out, hamstring)
SEA injuries: RB Penny (IR, ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, knee), WR Dee Eskridge (questionable, illness), RG Gabe Jackson (doubtful, knee), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Murray $7,300 DK / $8,300 FD (SEA 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Benjamin $4,600 DK / $6,300 FD (SEA 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Marquise Brown $7,200 DK / $8,200 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Rondale Moore $4,200 DK / $5,600 FD (SEA 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Zach Ertz $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
SEA DFS targets: Will Dissly $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD and Noah Fant $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: A.J. Green $4,100 DK / $5,300 FD (SEA second in DVOA vs. WR3)
SEA DFS fades: Metcalf $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1), Seahawks DST $2,800 DK / $3,100 FD (t-30th in sacks, ARI third in giveaways)

Key stat: SEA third in third-down conversions at 48.2 percent; ARI 24th in third-down defense at 44.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 SEA, average score 25-23 SEA, average margin of victory seven points. The road team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings (plus one tie)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Benjamin staggers for 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Murray throws for 240 yards and a score to Brown. Walker responds with 100 combined yards and a TD. Smith throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, finding Lockett (who tops 100 yards) once and Dissly twice. Seahawks 34-21

Buffalo at Kansas City (+2.5), o/u 54 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The weekend's marquee matchup (sorry, NFC East fans) features two 4-1 division leaders and two perennial MVP candidates, so it's hard to go wrong. The Bills have already routed two opponents by more than 30 points this season, including last week's steamrolling of the Steelers, and it's basically been all Josh Allen on the offensive end. He's accounted for multiple touchdowns in every game this season and racked up four TDs three times between his throwing and running, and he leads the league in passing yards while sitting second in passing TDs and fourth in YPA. Most of that production has gone to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who both hauled in more than 100 yards last week with three TDs between them. That's not to ignore than contributions of the defense, who once against are one of the toughest units in the league to throw against, but the offensive fireworks are always going to attract more attention from fantasy GMs. Think about this — Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox combined for 17 touchdowns last season, and between them they have only one score (a Singletary receiving TD) through five weeks. There's room for this attack to get better. Jinkies.

Allen's second in passing TDs. Do I really need to tell you who's first? Unlike Allen, Patrick Mahomes is spreading the ball around and making everyone look pretty good, though you'd never know it from last week's box score. Travis Kelce's four-touchdown performance is even more ridiculous when you consider all four TDs came in the red zone and went for a combined 14 yards. Everybody on the planet knew the ball was going his way at the goal line, and the Raiders were still helpless to stop it. Raiders gonna Raider though. The Bills' defense is on a completely different level despite some missing pieces in the secondary, but Kansas City's diverse attack options might be an advantage, as even Buffalo can't keep tabs on everybody. Is this the week JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Skyy Moore have their breakout in red and yellow, or will it be more Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Or is there somebody else on the roster with a hyphenated name I'm forgetting?

The Skinny

BUF injuries: CB Tre'Davious White (PUP-R, knee), S Micah Hyde (IR, neck)
KC injuries: RT Lucas Niang (PUP-R, knee), CB Rashad Fenton (out, hamstring), CB Trent McDuffie (IR-R, hamstring)

BUF DFS targets: Diggs $8,400 DK / $8,900 FD (KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Mahomes $8,000 DK / $8,600 FD (BUF fourth in passing yards, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Edwards-Helaire $6,300 DK / $7,000 FD (BUF third in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed), Kelce $7,800 DK / $8,300 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: BUF 21st in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent; KC 31st in red-zone defense at 81.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 70 yards and a receiving TD. Allen does his usual, throwing for 330 yards and three more touchdowns (two to Diggs, who tops 100 yards, and one to Knox). CEH gets held to 60 scrimmage yards. Mahomes does his best to keep pace and throws for 310 yards and two scores, one each to JJSS and MVS, while running in a TD of his own, but round one goes to Buffalo. Bills 31-24

Dallas (+6) at Philadelphia, o/u 42 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I'm still not entirely convinced the NFC East is going to be as interesting in December as it's been so far in October, but no other division has three four-win teams. (Heck, there are only three other four-win teams in the entire league.) The Cowboys have gotten to 4-1 mostly on the strength of the league's most exciting defense, as Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, DeMarcus Lawrence and others have made splash play after splash play, but the offense hasn't been invisible despite not having Dak Prescott under center most of the way. Cooper Rush has been the perfect backup, avoiding mistakes while making just enough timely plays to keep yards and points coming, and in some ways having him in the lineup has allowed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get back to basics and focus on what his unit does well. They'd be even more efficient if they realized Ezekiel Elliott is barely more than a fullback at this stage of his career. Zeke can still pass protect with the best of them, but his 3.8 yards per carry is a career low, and his plodding 1.7 yards after contact per carry is a match for his poor performance in that metric last season. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard is averaging 5.6 YPC and 3.1 YAC/attempt, but he's seen double-digit carries only once all year. Maybe give the young fella more work? Just a thought.

Four wins is fine and all, but the Eagles are the NFL's last unbeaten team at 5-0, and only the Bills have a better point differential than Philly's plus-47. Jalen Hurts already has six rushing TDs, and he's topped Cam Newton's record for most rushing scores through the first 25 games of a career. The team's focus on the ground might actually be costing him some votes in the early MVP straw polling, as he barely has more passing TDs (four) than Miles Sanders has rushing TDs (three), but if he ends up doing something truly historic as a runner while still posting solid numbers through the air, Hurts will be in the mix at the end of the year. As a result of that scheme, A.J. Brown maybe isn't putting up the truly explosive numbers some folks may have hoped, but he's still on pace for career high in catches and yards so it's not like he's disappeared, and DeVonta Smith is nearly matching his production. The Philly defense hasn't gotten the same kind of attention the offense has, or the Dallas defense for that matter, but it's in the top seven in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed. With neither team showing a true weakness coming into this one — they're tied for the league lead in fewest giveaways at two each — this isn't just a prime time matchup it's a truly unpredictable one (the best kind), with potential tiebreaker implications later in the season if these two keep battling for the NFC East title.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: QB Prescott (questionable, thumb), WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable, hip), WR James Washington (IR, foot), LT Tyron Smith (IR, knee)
PHI injuries: DE Derek Barnett (IR, knee)

DAL DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Rush $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (PHI third in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed), Lamb $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR1), Michael Gallup $4,800 DK / $6,000 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: Hurts $7,900 DK / $8,700 FD (DAL fourth in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed)

Key stat: DAL 26th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent; PHI t-13th in red-zone defense at 56.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 26-19 DAL, average margin of victory 16 points. DAL has scored at least 37 points in three straight meetings and four of the last six

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pollard leads the DAL backfield with 80 combined yards and a score, while Zeke gains 50 yards. Rush throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Lamb. Sanders picks up 80 yards but Kenneth Gainwell vultures a TD. Hurts throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Brown while running in a score of his own. Eagles 24-20

Washington at Chicago (PK), o/u 38 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The NFL really outdid itself scheduling these spooky season Thursday games. After last week's horror show between the Colts and Broncos — 31st and 32nd in scoring through five weeks, respectively, including the 12-9 abomination that was basically the game film equivalent of a midnight movie cult classic like Rocky Horror or The Room (or Miami Connection, the latest serious contender for Best Worst Movie Ever) — we now get a clash between the 26th and 28th-ranked scoring offenses. I can't wait. Ron Rivera drew a bunch of criticism for clumsily trying to defend Carson Wentz and instead throwing him under the bus, which seems about right for both guys, really. I get what Rivera was going for — every other NFC East team has had its current starting quarterbacks in their systems for a while, so it's not fair to hold Wentz to that standard — but it's also not true, since Rivera's been working with Wentz about as long as Brian Daboll's been working with Daniel Jones (the Giants hired Daboll in late January, the Commanders traded for Wentz in early March). Anyway, Wentz will continue to walk that tightrope every week where you're never quite sure if he'll do enough good things to make up for the bad things, but that's about all the Commanders have going for them on offense. The offensive line is on its third-string center and can't protect Wentz. The backfield's a mess with Brian Robinson doing little in his debut and Antonio Gibson not exactly putting up a fight for his starting job with a 3.2 YPC, and there's only so much Terry McLaurin can do when he hasn't even seen double-digit targets in a game yet this year. As for the Washington defense, the pass rush is doing pretty well given that Chase Young hasn't taken a snap yet (fifth in pressure rate, seventh in sacks), but the secondary's been so bad it hasn't mattered much.

Given the Year 3 breakouts we've seen lately from Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, I'm reluctant to give up on Justin Fields completely, but he really hasn't looked good this season aside from a mild improvement in his YPA. Seventeen games into his career he has a 58.1 percent completion rate and a 10:14 TD:INT, and those are not exactly the building blocks for future success. Chicago wants to be a running team, and he does add some value there alongside David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, but if he's no threat with his arm, some defensive coordinator is just going to go for it with nine-man boxes or something and double-dog dare Fields to beat them over the top. Rookie Velus Jones technically scored on his first career target last week, but it was a shovel pass on a jet sweep not a real route, and somehow I don't think N'Keal Harry making his Bears debut is going to move the needle for this passing game either. The defense has overall been better than the WFCs, and Chicago sits in the top 12 in things like takeaways and QB rating against, but the only time it's held an opponent to less than 20 points was when it played in that Week 1 monsoon. Maybe Hurricane Carson can help them out with that.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Wentz (questionable, shoulder), WR Jahan Dotson (questionable, hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (questionable, calf), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), RT Samuel Cosmi (questionable, finger), DE Chase Young (PUP-R, knee), CB William Jackson (questionable, back)
CHI injuries: WR Harry (questionable, ankle), LG Cody Whitehair (IR, knee)

WAS DFS targets: Robinson $6,600 DK / $11,000 FD and Gibson $8,600 DK / $9,000 FD (CHI 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed)
CHI DFS targets: Fields $10,000 DK / $16,000 FD (WAS 29th in passing DVOA, t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Equanimeous St. Brown $4,800 DK / $7,000 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Jones $2,600 DK / $6,500 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS t-28th in penalty yards; CHI is 11th

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 12-13 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Wentz throws for 230 yards and a score to Curtis Samuel but gets picked off twice. Montgomery rambles for 90 yards and a TD. Fields throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 50 and hits Darnell Mooney for a touchdown without committing any turnovers, which is enough. Bears 20-14

Last week's record: 11-5, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 38-41-1, 33-44-3 ATS, 42-37-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1326-810-8, 1038-1036-70 ATS, 777-824-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)