Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Dolphins vs. Steelers

The 44.0-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook for Monday night's Dolphins vs. Steelers game is one of the lower ones of Week 8, though the 14.0-point spread in favor of the Steelers is the highest. The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL, and while the Steelers aren't nearly as good without Ben Roethlisberger, their 29 implied points are the fourth-highest of the week, while the Dolphins' 15 are the lowest. Needless to say, there are likely to be plenty of Steelers stacks.

QUARTERBACKS

Mason Rudolph ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD) will start for the injured Roethlisberger after recovering from a concussion that kept him out of their Week 6 game against the Chargers before their Week 7 bye. His return will push Devlin Hodges ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD) back to the bench, which is also where Josh Rosen ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD) will be for the Dolphins because Ryan Fitzpatrick ($8,400 DK, $14,000 FD) will once again be under center. Needless to say, this isn't the exciting Monday night matchup ESPN executives were hoping to produce. Either way, here we are, with many fantasy players likely considering Rudolph against a defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season while the Steelers have allowed the 14th-fewest on DraftKings and 11th-fewest on FanDuel. We've seen Fitzpatrick have some monster games out of no where during his career, but this Dolphins team is absolutely the worst one he's ever been a part of (which says quite a bit), and it's tough to justify his selection for those who play one or limited lineups. There's some optimism for Rudolph, who threw for two touchdowns in each of his first three starts, though he reached 200 passing yards just once in that span and the offense continues to be built around the running game.

RUNNING BACKS

I usually like to focus on the pass catchers after the quarterbacks, but the Steelers' James Conner ($13,400 DK, $15,000 FD) is the most expensive player on the slate, and deservedly so. He hasn't been all that effective, though he still leads the team in rushing attempts (74), rushing yards (235), rushing touchdowns (three), red zone carries (12), including five inside the five-yard line, and receptions (26), and he's second in receiving yards (231) and third in targets (27). Those totals are really just good in relation to the other players in the game, as he hasn't even rushed for 60 yards this season, though he does have two games with more than 75 receiving yards. The lack of rushing yards comes from the fact that he hasn't had more than 16 rushing attempts, but he remains the main backfield option with three touchdowns (two rushing) in the past two games. 

The return of Jaylen Samuels ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) from a hamstring injury doesn't really help Conner's upside, as anything Samuels does only takes away from Conner. Samuels suffered his injury during their Week 5 game against Baltimore and has been held out since then, and even though the Steelers have shown trust in him both in the rushing and passing game, Conner will still get a majority of the touches. Samuels' return clouds the backfield situation even further, as Benny Snell ($2,400 DK, $5,000 FD) was excellent against the Chargers, rushing 17 times for 75 yards and catching his lone target for 14 receiving yards, though almost all of his work came after Conner was knocked out of the game because of a quad injury. All three backs are expected to be active Monday, but again, Conner is still expected to be the lead one. We also shouldn't rule out playing multiple Steelers running backs in the same lineup given how pedestrian the passing game has been, with Conner likely to be a popular captain/MVP selection.

With Kenyan Drake ruled out because he's expected to be traded to the Cardinals, Mark Walton ($6,000 DK, $10,500 FD) is expected to be Miami's lead back against a Steelers defense that's allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on FanDuel and DraftKings. Walton wasn't used much this season until a (comparatively speaking) breakout performance in Week 6 against Washington when he had six carries for 32 yards and five catches on six targets for 43 receiving yards. Unfortunately, he couldn't get much going against the Bills last week, rushing 14 times for 66 yards and catching his lone target for an eight-yard loss, but the 14 carries were nine more than backup Kalen Ballage ($1,600 DK, $7,500 FD), who also figures to see an increase in opportunities with Drake gone. Ballage has just one game this season with more than five carries, and his best yardage game came in Week 3 at Dallas when he rushed eight times for 17 yards and caught one of three targets for 10 receiving yards. However, there's potential upside if the Dolphins get close to the end zone, as Ballage converted his red-zone opportunities into touchdowns in each of the past two games. While that gives him some upside, it also makes the Miami backfield situation plenty difficult to project outside of Walton getting most of the touches but Ballage potential poaching touchdowns. Lovely! Ballage has produced close to nothing in the passing game, so we can see a much firmer floor for Walton, who is a sneaky captain option for those who think the Dolphins keep this one close.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

There were plenty of expectations for JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10,600 DK, $13,000 FD) this season as he moved to the top of the wide receiver depth chart after Antonio Brown was traded, but Roethlisberger's injury pretty much killed that, as Smith-Schuster comes in with only 25 catches on 37 targets for 340 yards, 326 air yards and an 8.6 aDOT, which all lead the team (except for aDOT) but also rank pretty poorly league-wide. He's the top receiving option for the Steelers, which is why he's so expensive, but the returns we've seen this season leave plenty to be desired. Diontae Johnson ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD) has been moderately consistent in terms of targets this season, and his 31 catches and 287 air yards are second-most on the team, and his 20 receptions and 212 receiving yards are the second-most among wide receivers (Conner and Smith-Schuster are ahead of him overall). It's a little puzzling that James Washington ($3,800 DK, $7,500 FD) is more expensive on FanDuel given he only has nine catches on 21 targets for 140 yards and 263 air yards. His 13.8 aDOT is the highest on the team among players who have actually caught a pass, but he hasn't caught more than three in any game this season, even if he has been targeted at least five times thrice. Long-shot guys like Ryan Switzer ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) and Johnny Holton ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) have combined for eight catches on 16 targets for 31 yards this season, though if there's one small thing to note, it's that Holton has 158 air yards and a 31.6 aDOT, so when he is targeted, it's deep. Then again, 46 of those air yards came in Week 1 with Roelisberger. It's a stretch, but Holton at least has the potential upside that Switzer hasn't shown. Oh, and I guess we can't forget about Donte Moncrief ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD), who had so many drop issues in the first two weeks that he was inactive for Weeks 3 and 5, but he did catch one pass on two targets for 11 yards last week. However, the problem with relying on Moncrief is that not only do you need him to be over his drop issues (maybe he is), but you also need Rudolph to get him the ball.

The tight end situation isn't much better, with Vance McDonald ($6,400 DK, $6,500 FD) coming in with six targets in his last three games, while Nick Vannett ($1,200 DK, $5,500 FD) had four in his last three. Neither player is much of a downfield threat, with McDonald's 70 air yards leading to a 4.1 aDOT, while Vannett at least has a 10.8 aDOT but only 43 air yards. That being said, McDonald does have three red-zone targets this season, which is one off the team lead, and in a game that isn't expected to be high scoring, a two-catch, 14-yard, one-touchdown game could be incredibly helpful. Captaining anyone in the Steelers' pass-catching group seems like a leap of faith for lower-entry players, and while Smith-Schuster is the most reliable, Johnson could be an interesting play.

The Miami receiver situation revolves around two players: DeVante Parker ($7,200 DK, $12,000 FD) and Preston Williams ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD). Both players are in the top 20 in most air yards this season, which is particularly impressive given they've only played six games while everyone ahead of them has played either seven or eight. Unfortunately, we don't get fantasy points for air yards, and their lack of production has been a big issue for the winless Dolphins. Parker leads the team with 641 air yards and a 16.9 aDOT, the latter of which is the highest in the league among players with at least 20 targets, but he's caught only 18 of 38 targets for 284 receiving yards. Similarly, Williams has 614 air yards and a 14.0 aDOT, but he's caught just 23 of 44 targets for 314 receiving yards, each of which lead the team. Horrendous quarterback play can certainly be attributed to their lack of production, though Williams has an 11.4 percent drop rate, which is simply inexcusable. Parker leads the team with three receiving touchdowns, though Williams has more red-zone targets (seven to five). Because they are mostly deep threats, it's unsurprising they haven't gotten a ton of work in the red zone, also because the Dolphins are so rarely there. If you think the Dolphins can pull off the upset, captaining Parker and Williams isn't the craziest idea, or at least they make the most sense among Dolphins players in terms of upside.

Allen Hurns ($200 DK, $7,000 FD) is significantly cheaper on DraftKings, in terms of percentage of salary cap, than FanDuel, and he's coming off a decent game against Buffalo when he caught all three targets for 53 yards while playing as the no. 3 receiver ahead of Albert Wilson ($2,000 DK, $6,000 FD). There hasn't been much to get excited about when it comes to Wilson, who caught five of six targets against Washington in Week 6, but he racked up only 15 receiving yards before catching half of his two targets last week for 22. If you're going to pay down for a Miami receiver on DraftKings, I don't see much of a difference between Hurns and Wilson other than the former has shown more depth upside and he's much cheaper. Meanwhile, Jakeem Grant ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) is an absolute burner who can score any time he gets the ball in his hands, but the Dolphins have been horrible in doing that, giving him only seven offensive snaps last week after dealing with a hamstring injury. On the plus side, Grant's 199 air yards are the third-most on the team, but they just need to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands for him to make an impact. Isaiah Ford ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is also a guy, but when you're sixth on the Dolphins wide receiver depth chart, it's tough to give him any consideration unless you're putting together 150 lineups, and even then it's a long shot.

The Dolphins have used three tight ends this season, with Mike Gesicki ($3,600 DK, $7,500 FD) getting the most opportunities, and he comes in with seven catches on 11 targets for 92 yards in the past two games. His 182 air yards and 8.3 aDOT aren't bad for a tight end, and they certainly make him more attractive than Durham Smythe ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) or Nick O'Leary ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who have combined for five catches on seven targets for 61 yards this season. Honestly, if you're going this deep on the Miami pass-catching depth chart, you may have to adjust your optimizer. Gesicki should certainly be the in equation, but Smythe and O'Leary are about as long-shot as you can get.

KICKERS

Expected low-scoring games will always make the kickers worth considering, and Monday night is no different with Chris Boswell ($4,000 DK, $10,000 FD) and Jason Sanders ($3,200 DK, $9,000 FD). The former has scored at least nine points in four of his last five games and is certainly the safer pick for Monday night. Meanwhile, Sanders hasn't reached nine points in any game this season, and while he had three field-goal opportunities in Weeks 3 and 4, he missed one and two, respectively, and he's unlikely to make those up with PATs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Given how bad the Dolphins' offense has been, the Steelers defense ($8,000) is the fifth-highest priced option on DraftKings, and they could be a very popular captain selection. They've scored at least 11.0 fantasy points in four straight games, including 19.0 against Cincinnati in Week 4 even without a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense ($2,800) provides some decent salary savings, but they've also been horrific, scoring three points once this season and combining for two in their past three games.