This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Jets team that's already had a rollercoaster of a season through the first six weeks heads into AcriSure Stadium to tangle with the 4-2 Steelers on Sunday night.
Both teams have competed for the headlines this week due to personnel changes. While New York notably added star wideout Davante Adams via trade Tuesday to reunite him with Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh appears set to make a change at starting quarterback with Russell Wilson in place of Justin Fields.
Without further ado, let's dive into the best betting scenarios for what shapes up as an intriguing Week 7 primetime clash.
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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Jets -122 (FanDuel)/ Steelers +114 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Jets -1.5 (BetMGM)/ Steelers +2 (ESPN BET)
Totals: Under 38.5 points (Caesars)/ Over 38.5 points (FanDuel)
Given the news that unfolded with both teams over the past week, it's no surprise the spread for this game has experienced some movement. The number sat at Steelers -1 before Week 6. But naturally, that number was generated before we knew how the Jets would respond to Robert Saleh's firing, not to mention that Adams was still a member of the Raiders. The number got up to -1.5 following Pittsburgh's Week 6 win and New York's loss to the Bills on Monday night, but then news of the Adams trade and his expected availability for Week 7 led to it flipping as high as Jets -2.5 at mid-week. The public has subsequently countered that number, pushing it back down a full point as of Friday with the expected Wilson promotion perhaps playing a part.
The total for the game was also affected by this week's news. The number was a minuscule 37 points before Week 6, and then as low as 36.5 early this week. The Adams trade naturally changed matters, with the number rising steadily throughout the middle of the week up to 39 points by Thursday. It only ticked slightly down to 38.5 since then, and will likely remain in that range heading into kickoff.
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New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Picks
The Jets looked more coherent on offense in their narrow loss to the Bills, likely not a coincidence. One of Ulbrich's first moves as interim head coach was to demote Nathaniel Hackett from play-calling duties and elevate Todd Downing in his place. Against a good-but-not-great Bills defense, the change was palpable, with Rodgers throwing for a season-high 294 yards and two touchdowns while posting his second-highest completion percentage of the season (65.7).
Ulbrich also made a commitment to the run heading into his debut and stuck to it, much to the benefit of Breece Hall. The star back had run in proverbial quicksand all season, but he went off for 169 total yards on 23 touches versus Buffalo. That balance was something Rodgers hadn't had a chance to benefit from coming in, and if it can persist this week with the addition of Adams as a weapon, New York's offense could truly take flight.
The Steelers have looked a bit more vulnerable defensively of late, surrendering 359.3 total yards per game in the last three after yielding just 261.8 per contest in the first three. Pass defense has been at fault to a significant degree, as the Steelers conceded 259.7 passing yards per game over the last three contests at 10.4 yards per completion. That certainly could spell trouble against Rodgers, who now can attack with Garrett Wilson, Adams, Mike Williams and Allen Lazard as his top four wideouts, not to mention essentially extra receivers in the versatile Hall and reliable tight end Tyler Conklin.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Wilson could well prove an upgrade over Fields as a passer, but rust has to be a consideration. Two especially ill-timed occurrences of Wilson's calf issues have cost him key opportunities to build uninterrupted rapport with his pass catchers and uninterrupted time running the offensive system. Wilson first missed multiple weeks to start training camp and then multiple practices once the regular season started.
He's back to practicing in full for two weeks at this point and should therefore be in somewhat of a rhythm, but he faces a Jets defense that has limited opponents to 8.9 yards per completion and surrendered only four touchdown passes. New York has also yielded only a 60.6 percent completion rate, underscoring how difficult they've made life for opposing QBs.
This is a game where I can see Wilson, experienced and accomplished as he is, becoming a bit overwhelmed by an aggressive and exuberant Jets defense. Rodgers has to have some confidence after last week's performance and excitement about getting Adams into the fold, and I see New York's offense able to do enough to squeeze out the prime time road victory.
Best Bets
- Jets moneyline (-125 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Over 38.5 points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- SGP: Jets -1.5 and Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards (+138 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
Jets 24, Steelers 19
The Jets are a markedly different team than just two weeks ago, and this is the week the changes kick in. Ulbrich fell just short of snagging a victory in his head coaching debut, but he now picks up a potent weapon in Adams, who comes in with fresh legs and a reinvigorated spirit after literally leaving Las Vegas. The reunion with Rodgers will pay bigger dividends down the line, but for starters, Adams' presence and the rest of the Jets' talent on either side of the ball will prove enough to secure a tough road victory.
