This article is part of our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy series.
Mario Puig walked us through his strategy for picking from draft slots 1-3 and slots 4-6 in 12-team leagues. Now it's my turn, looking at the 7-9 spots, before Jim Coventry closes out with his upcoming analysis for 10-12.
My first thought here is that it's not a bad year to have late position. Would I rather have the first overall pick and Justin Jefferson? Well, yes. But it's a closer call than in years past, partially because of a value drop-off that tends to happen about midway through the second round.
Having drafted dozens of best-ball teams already, I've also noticed that picking from the 7-9 spots tends to push me away from the top options at QB and TE. We'll discuss that, and more, below, going through each stage of drafts.
Strategy by Round
Round 1
On best-ball sites there's a clear Top 6 in ADP, with four WRs (Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill) joined by RB Christian McCaffrey and TE Travis Kelce. Those are often the first six guys off the board, but not always, and in home leagues we're more likely to see deviations like someone taking Austin Ekeler or Stefon Diggs over one of the guys mentioned above.
When picking seventh, my dream scenario is Hill or Kelce falling to me. When picking eighth or ninth, I don't even bother hoping for it. That often leaves me with two questions to answer...
A) Ekeler vs.
Mario Puig walked us through his strategy for picking from draft slots 1-3 and slots 4-6 in 12-team leagues. Now it's my turn, looking at the 7-9 spots, before Jim Coventry closes out with his upcoming analysis for 10-12.
My first thought here is that it's not a bad year to have late position. Would I rather have the first overall pick and Justin Jefferson? Well, yes. But it's a closer call than in years past, partially because of a value drop-off that tends to happen about midway through the second round.
Having drafted dozens of best-ball teams already, I've also noticed that picking from the 7-9 spots tends to push me away from the top options at QB and TE. We'll discuss that, and more, below, going through each stage of drafts.
Strategy by Round
Round 1
On best-ball sites there's a clear Top 6 in ADP, with four WRs (Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill) joined by RB Christian McCaffrey and TE Travis Kelce. Those are often the first six guys off the board, but not always, and in home leagues we're more likely to see deviations like someone taking Austin Ekeler or Stefon Diggs over one of the guys mentioned above.
When picking seventh, my dream scenario is Hill or Kelce falling to me. When picking eighth or ninth, I don't even bother hoping for it. That often leaves me with two questions to answer...
A) Ekeler vs. a WR?
B) If a WR, which one?
There's no right or wrong answer, but personally I find myself leaning toward the WRs, in part because I really like the value that's usually available at RB in Rounds 3-6 this year (in the so-called RB Dead Zone... fingers crossed).
Diggs is a good pick, and a safe one. So is CeeDee Lamb, or A.J. Brown. And there's a case for Davante Adams, who has already demonstrated a higher fantasy ceiling than Diggs/Lamb/Brown but is tied to a Vegas offense that many (including me) are hesitant to invest heavily in.
Other than that, you might consider a Nick Chubb or Jonathan Taylor as early as eighth/ninth overall in standard scoring. For PPR, I'll stick to Ekeler or a WR from this position. And I know a lot of people like Bijan Robinson here... but the crowded backfield and shaky QB situation in Atlanta leaves the stud rookie as more of a Round 2/3 projection for me in redraft. Of course, while I'm personally never taking Robinson this early, you'll hardly be alone if you do.
Round 2
Chubb and Taylor are my favorite targets here at 16-18th overall, but there's no need to worry if both are gone. This is still a good spot to be in, before tiers start to break in the late teens / early 20s.
Other solid choices sometimes available here include RB Saquon Barkley and WRs Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson. By the time we get to pick 20 or so, I often feel like there's been a big drop-off, going from Waddle/Wilson to Chris Olave / DeVonta Smith / Tee Higgins. That's perhaps less true, however, at running back, where Derrick Henry is the ultimate risk/reward pick and has an ADP in the 20s on most sites.
Rounds 3-4
At this point, it's a bit harder to identify specific targets ahead of time and we need to start thinking about our positional breakdown if we weren't already. There's a good chance Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen will all have been taken in the gap between our Round 2 and Round 3 picks; if one is still available here in the early 30s, go for it.
Otherwise, options may include QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews and a slew of running backs and wide receivers. If you want upside/risk, there's RB Josh Jacobs or WR Calvin Ridley. If you're more of a mind to avoid risk, perhaps the pick is DK Metcalf or Rhamondre Stevenson.
The fourth round, for whatever reason, seems to be my RB round this year. In past seasons, I'd usually be grabbing an RB in Rounds 1 and/or 2 and then loading up on WRs. For 2023, I love the value with Najee Harris and Travis Etienne having Round 4 ADPs. Harris has better blockers this year, and Etienne should be even more explosive another year removed from his Lisfranc injury. Both were first-round picks in 2021, you might remember.
Rounds 5-8
This has long been WR-drafting range for me, but in 2023 it's a different story, especially in the fifth round where we can get some talented RBs like Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker and J.K. Dobbins. All come with very real concerns, but I think there's maybe been a market overcorrection where these types of RB picks used to go Round 3 or early Round 4 in past seasons (too soon) and now fall out of the Top 50 (too late).
Now, I still want to come out of this part of the draft with at least one young breakout candidate at WR, be it Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Jordan Addison or someone else. Two would be preferred, but sometimes other concerns take precedent.
The way ADPs are falling this year, picks 7-9 aren't great for either premium QB or TE. We're rarely getting a shot at Kelce in Round 1, and by the time things come back to us in Round 3 the option to draft Allen/Mahomes/Hurts (or Mark Andrews) is often gone as well.
When picking from the 7th, 8th or 9th spot, I typically find myself loading up on RBs and WRs in the early rounds and then targeting second/third-tier guys at the onesie positions later on (e.g. Darren Waller, David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa). If this doesn't appeal to you, it might be a good idea to grab Jackson or Joe Burrow earlier on and focus on the RB/WR breakout candidates in this Round 5-8 range.
Rounds 9 and Beyond
At this point, draft position doesn't really impact our strategy apart from in whatever way it influenced previous picks. If you're like me and often go RB/WR heavy through the Top 100 picks when drafting from the back half of the first round, you'll probably need to take some shots on QBs and TEs later on.
Stacking is mostly associated with DFS and best ball, but it can also be a useful tactic in regular redraft leagues as a way to increase our investment in a single passing game (for more variance) or lock down an entire RB depth chart (for less variance). I tend to favor the risk-loving strategy, especially in non-best-ball redraft, because a lot of the late-round picks just end up being cut and replaced anyway.
Floor matters a lot in the early rounds; the late rounds are more about trying to unearth one or two gems and not worrying much about the misses. This is especially true if you know you're a proactive owner and will be able to outwit your league-mates on waivers throughout the year.
Here are my favorite picks at each position for Rounds 9 and beyond, going by ADP from my recent article showing data from three major best-ball sites. Reaching a round or two above ADP rarely makes sense in the early rounds, but it's fine at this point when there's not much gap between players and there's a lot of variance in where they'll be taken from league to league. I'm a 'Value' guy early on, and more of a 'Get Your Guys' guy once we're in the later rounds.
Round 9
QB Kirk Cousins
RBs Zach Charbonnet, Antonio Gibson
TE David Njoku
Round 10
Round 11
Round 12
QB Jordan Love
WR Rashee Rice
TE Cole Kmet
Round 13
QB Kyler Murray
WR Alec Pierce
TE Sam LaPorta
Round 14
QB Bryce Young
RB Jerome Ford
Round 15
QB Sam Howell
WR Marvin Mims
Sample Drafts
While we're on the topic, I figured I'd share two of my ongoing slow drafts from 7-9 position on Underdog. They're similar, but not identical. And keep in mind that it's best-ball scoring, which is part of why I'm ok with being so RB-heavy after eight rounds.
