Draft Strategy: Does Math Still Support Taking WRs Early?

Let's start with my basic drafting premise of the last few years: Taking wide receivers in the first few rounds is the best strategy. Here are the main reasons why:

• WRs get hurt less frequently than RB, QB or TE.
• It's easier to manage your roster by leaving top wide receivers in your lineup rather than mixing and matching lesser receivers and leaving good performances on your bench.
• It's harder to pick up wide receivers than running backs on the waiver wire. Few wide receivers emerge out of nowhere. Running backs are literally signed off the street and put into a starting lineup.
• Taking running backs in quantity rather than quality in middle to late rounds can pay off because backups become starters or those in time shares can still be used in starting lineups.

WRs Drafted in Top 15 Overall ADP (busts in bold)

However, after I crunched the numbers I found that with the decline in running back usage the past few years, taking the top 2-3 receivers has been arguably a better strategy than even taking a top-5 running back. Wide receivers taken in the overall top 15 of ADP produce even more fantasy points over their replacements as measured by VBD than running backs taken in the top-5 overall of ADP, although only slightly. (VBD, or Value Based Drafting, measures a players fantasy points based on what he offered compared to the other options at his position that season)

But what happens when a top-5 running back gets compared to a wide receiver being drafted in the top 25 overall of ADP? Then the comparison isn't as clear and likely leans toward the running backs.

One caveat on the bust rate. Before last year, top-5 running backs had a bust rate of 13 percent with a much larger sample size than top-15 wide receivers. Then last year three of the top seven running backs were busts and brought down the 10-year bust rate. But that shows how small the sample size is and how one bad, maybe unlucky, year can quickly change the math.

Of course, the math is always changing because the NFL continues to become more of a passing league. As a result, more passes are thrown and receivers post bigger numbers. The NFL is also reducing the workload of running backs as it's realized it's optimal for keeping them healthy. Perhaps then the top 2-3 projected running backs don't have as much value as a decade earlier. It's definitely true that the days of 400 touches (rushing attempts plus receptions) are a thing of the past. Just three times in the last decade has the leader in touches been over 400. It happened nine of 10 years in the prior decade (1996-2005). However, it's still important to remember that running backs have been the dominant position of fantasy scoring as defined by VBD even this decade.

Top 5 Overall Fantasy Scorers (VBD) by Position

Players with 300-Plus Touches

2015 - 4
2014 - 5
2013 - 9
2012 - 10
2011 - 7
2010 - 11

High-volume running backs have huge value in standard or PPR scoring systems. The problem is figuring out which of the current slate of running backs have that potential. I think Adrian Peterson is still in that class. Maybe you don't. But as an asset class, these high volume players are being discounted like never before.

In summary, I think that if you can get a top running back, or optimally two of the top 3-5 running backs, it may be slightly better or equal to taking wide receivers in the first two rounds. That has resulted in more of a mix of strategy for me in drafts this year.

In my next story, I'll lay out my specific game plan for drafts and auctions.