This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
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Two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL face off in the latest installment of the Commanders-Ravens regional inter conference rivalry.
The Commanders are one of the big surprises of either conference at 4-1, while the Ravens have progressively put their 0-2 start behind them following three straight victories.
Let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Commanders-Ravens showdown.
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds for Week 6
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Commanders +250 (DraftKings)/ Ravens -290 (ESPN BET)
Point spread: Commanders +7 (DraftKings)/ Ravens -6.5 (Fanatics)
Totals: Under 51.5 points (ESPN BET)/ Over 51.5 points (FanDuel)
The spread for this game has firmly sat on the side of the Ravens all along, but the public has shown even more faith in Baltimore in recent days. John Harbaugh's squad was listed at -6.5 prior to Week 5 action, and despite the Ravens squeaking out an OT win over the Bengals while the Commanders recorded a 21-point win over the Browns, Baltimore has climbed to a -7 line at some sportsbooks over the course of the week.
Meanwhile, the total has moved up even though it already clocked in at an elevated 49.5 points before the Week 5 games. With the two teams scoring a combined 75 points in their respective games this past Sunday, bettors quickly began to push that figure up, with the number getting as high as 52.5 points this week before a slight late-week downward turn.
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Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Picks This Week
Every rookie quarterback, no matter how talented, typically encounters at least one or two foes along the way that humble them to an extent. Those encounters unsurprisingly tend to come on the road amidst vociferous enemy crowds and versus squads with reputations for hard-nosed, veteran defenses extremely well-versed in the schemes they play.
All of those circumstances come into play for ROY frontrunner Jayden Daniels this week as he journeys into M & T Bank Stadium to face a Ravens team that appears to have found its footing following an atypically rough start to the season. However, there's one equally important factor that applies this week in favor of Baltimore, one I believe will be key to this game and Daniels himself slightly underperforming expectations. His opponent may be the best equipped in the league to counteract the extraordinary skill set he brings.
There's no question Ravens defenders are among the units least surprised or disconcerted by what Daniels has proven capable of thus far in his impressive young career. That's no knock on the second overall pick – it's a testament to what they deal with most every day in practice since OTAs as they face off against their own Lamar Jackson. In the case of the many veterans on Baltimore's defense, that exposure has come over multiple years, and when Jackson was not healthy, those players frequently dealt with a QB even closer to Daniels in dimensions in the now-departed Tyler Huntley.
Naturally, Daniels will still make plays, and familiarity alone obviously will not just nullify the impact he can make on a game. Yet, the rookie could well find many of the running lanes available to him appreciably less accessible against Baltimore. In the meantime, his team's suspect defense (28.0 PPG, 374.7 YPG allowed on road) will likely have some trouble against Lamar and a power back like Derrick Henry that's capable of wearing down any front seven.
With Baltimore potentially pulling ahead in this game, Daniels' task will only get tougher. It's also worth noting he has put the ball up as many as 30 times just once in his first five games. The Ravens come in allowing an NFL-low 3.1 yards per carry, so the balance Daniels has benefited from may not be there even before/if the hosts create a game script adverse to the run.
Given the factors cited, I'm in the camp of the Under hitting in large part because of Washington's inability to fully keep up, as well as Daniels falling short of 282.5 combined scrimmage yards. The Ravens, have ceded just 31 rushing yards on 12 attempts to QBs, potentially limiting his rushing production to a degree.
Commanders @ Ravens Best Bets:
- Under 52 points (-110 on Bet365)
- Jayden Daniels Under 282.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 on DraftKings)
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Commanders @ Ravens Prediction
Ravens 27, Commanders 21
As alluded to, Daniels is off to a remarkable career-opening run. But this sets up as a "back down to earth" spot for the dynamic rookie and his teammates. The Ravens' savvy, experience and homefield edge – not to mention their ability to largely make teams one-dimensional – will carry the day for Baltimore here in a fairly hard-fought contest that Lamar Jackson and friends should also find offensive success in.
