This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Bets Week 5: Circa Millions
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First weekend of October, NFL Week 5, it's all coming together. We saw so many upsets in the first month of the season, but will the trend continue? Let's figure this one out together.
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-240): Total 43.5
If you've paid attention to me, then you know what time it is on Monday night. It's a ROYAL MINT spot, or a road team closing at exactly 5/5.5 points. While we have some time to designate a closing line, this is trending as a Royal Mint spot, the most successful betting trend in the NFL. Don't forget who shared this wisdom with you because you won't find it from anybody else other than the dude who coined it as the "Royal Mint."
The Saints were a crispy 2-0 with consecutive 40 beans against Carolina and Dallas to start the year. After a couple of tight losses to Philly and Atlanta, this becomes a big spot at KC. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are the celery sticks that stir the Spicy Bloody Mary for this NOLA offense, but it's Derek Carr that ultimately stirs them. Carr's last two performances featuring only one TD and two picks, have not provided enough to drive it home.
For the Saints to pull off this massive upset, they will need Kamara to get back to his usual dominance against a KC defense that ranks eighth (99 YPG) in rush yards allowed. None of Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, or Zack Moss/Chase Brown, has managed 50 yards on the ground thus far vs the Chiefs. NOLA can't rely on only the ground game in this one, though a solid AK performance would help. It's going to have to be Chris Olave opening up the passing game. The Ohio State product enters off three-straight 80+ yard receiving efforts. And of course it all starts with Derek Carr who is operating at just a 1 TD/2 INT ratio in the last two weeks.
The Chiefs, despite their 4-0 record, are very easily a few plays away from a 1-3 record. Patrick Mahomes has not shown anything close to his MVP level of seasons' past. He has yet to eclipse 300 yards passing in a game, with only a 6 TD/ 5 INT ratio, no better than Justin Fields at the moment. To make matters worse, KC will play without Rashee Rice, in addition to Hollywood Brown. Dealing with a Saints defense that has yet to allow 20 points in a game thus far, it could shape up as another slug fest for the reigning Super Bowl champs.
While KC's ground attack is not bad, it's still not good enough. With no 100-yard rushing efforts this season, the team will hope RB Kareem Hunt returns to his former glory in his second stint with the team. Right now, there's not much production on this offense as it looks extremely pedestrian.
I don't love the Saints, but I love this spot. Backing this line religiously in my tenure in my betting portfolio, I know weird things tend to happen. KC is dealing with a lot more key injuries than usual, so there's an opportunity for the Saints defense to slow them down. If New Orleans can get 21 points, I believe there is a very good chance they cover this line. Give me the Saints on Monday night.
Pick: Saints +5.5 -110 (Fanatics)
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Circa Millions Week 5:
I won't lie, it's been rough for your boy through the first four weeks in this contest. A lot of upsets have shocked me this season. I don't expect this 7-13 contest record to keep me down for too long. In this new quarter, I feel good about starting hot in Q2.
Pick 1: Saints +5.5
See Above
Pick 2: Bengals +2.5
Cincy and Baltimore is one of the best rivalries in the NFL. The 1-3 Bengals are desperate for a win to stay alive in this AFC North hunt. The big matchup advantage is Cincy's WRs against this slow DB room. Ja'Marr Chase is often the key for the Bengals winning against Balto. When Chase has at least 80 yards, Cincy is undefeated vs. the Ravens. I expect Cincy to put up points here, and win outright.
Pick 3: Broncos -3
The wheels have come off for the Raiders. Antonio Pierce is close to losing the locker room for this team that will now play without Davante Adams. Meanwhile, Denver has ripped off monster road wins as big underdogs in Tampa and New York. The defense is still good and features a shut down CB in Patrick Surtain II. Bo Nix and the offense remains a work in progress, but they have found their way lately. If they can slow down the Raiders front four, led by Maxx Crosby, then I think they should score 20 points, which should be enough for a win and cover.
Pick 4: Packers -3
GB won't have WRs Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs. But no matter. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks will run in two-man sets. This Rams defense has gotten lit up lately by almost every offense. With Jordan Love spear-heading a strong offense in both the ground and air attacks, I like the Packers to put up a lot of points, forcing a limited LAR offense to struggle to keep up.
Pick 5: Bills PK
I wasn't shy about saying the Bills were a team I was down on coming into 2024. They beat up on bad Jags and Miami teams, and barely escaped against a frisky Zona squad. Their lack of fire power showed against the Ravens last week when they got clapped like a standing ovation. Though they will miss de facto WR1 Khalil Shakir, this is a nice rebound spot against a Texans team that has not come close to matching their preseason Super Bowl hype. This is likely one of those games we see Josh Allen totally take over. Also, book mark this as a huge tilt in the MVP race between Allen and Stroud.
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