Beating the Book: NFL Week 18 ATS Picks + Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 18 edition of Beating the Book!

Well, we went heavy chalk in Week 17 and ended up turning in our best week of the season. After a rocky start to the year, the public has been on an extended heater. Entering Week 18, favorites have covered the spread in 53.9% of games this season – the best rate since 2017 and seventh-best in the Super Bowl era.

Please bow your heads and join me in a brief moment of silence for the sportsbooks.

………

Thank you.

Anyway, we'll see if that trend continues in the season's final week, which always presents an interesting mix of meaningless and meaningful matchups. We begin the week with a pair of big games in the AFC North, with the Ravens – heavy favorites over Cleveland – looking to lock up the division, as well as the AFC's No. 3 seed.

In the night window, the Bengals will look to keep their playoff hopes alive. They'll need a win over the Steelers, plus losses by the Dolphins and the Broncos, who will play host to a Chiefs team that's already locked up the No. 1 seed.

The Sunday slate also carries plenty of postseason – and draft positioning – implications, but we have only one game (Vikings-Lions) that truly matters for both sides. The total in that game is currently sitting at 57.0 – easily the highest of the season.

As we work our way through the slate, we'll do our best to lay out what's at stake in each matchup and hand out our bet

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 18 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 17

Bears +3.5 vs. Seahawks: A 6-3 final wasn't exactly what we forecasted, but the Bears' defense came through for us.

Buccaneers -7.5 vs. Panthers: With Tampa coming off of a loss, this number felt a bit inflated, but Carolina allowed 200+ rushing yards for the fifth straight week.

Worst calls of Week 17

Packers +1.5 at Vikings: While a late rally made this a half-point loss, the Packers got off to their signature slow start and looked like the inferior team for the full 60 minutes.

Rams -5.5 vs. Cardinals: We missed on only three games this week, but one of them was our best bet, and the Rams were extremely lucky to escape with a SU win.

Last week: 13-3 ATS; 14-2 SU; best bet lost (LAR -5.5)

On the season: 135-117-4 ATS; 180-76 SU; 5-10-2 best bets

Saturday Doubleheader

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -17.5

Total: 42.0

Well, the Ravens have a golden opportunity to lock up the AFC North, and the No. 3 seed, with a win against a Browns team that might be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson. But according to Kevin Stefanski, they could also start Bailey Zappe. 

Whichever way the Browns lean, it goes without saying this will be an uphill battle against the NFL's No. 1 team by DVOA. The Ravens should have no trouble taking care of business at home, but if they build a big lead early on, the backdoor could be open if Baltimore pulls back on some starters in the second half.

Even with that threat, the Browns have done virtually nothing on offense since benching Jameis Winston, so we'll take the plunge and lay the 17.5.

The pick: Ravens 28 – Browns 10

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Bengals -1.5

Total: 48.0

We've already seen considerable movement on this number, which was up to as high as Cincy -3.0 earlier in the week. Obviously, the Bengals need this game to have any chance at a playoff berth, and by virtue of playing on Saturday, they won't know the result of the Denver or Miami games. 

Meanwhile, the Steelers are locked into the postseason, but if we assume the Ravens take care of business against Cleveland in the early game, the Steelers will be locked out of a chance at the AFC North crown. However, a win by Pittsburgh – or a Chargers loss on Sunday – would clinch the 5 seed and a matchup with the Texans, as opposed to heading to Baltimore in the Wild Card round. 

We'll see how much the Steelers care about that first-round matchup, but speaking for myself, I would much rather face a reeling Houston team than Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

The Bengals' offense continues to play at a high level, but the defense remains a liability, even after a few solid performances against average-to-bad offenses. Assuming the Steelers make a concerted push for the 5 spot, we'll take Pittsburgh to crush the Bengals' playoff hopes and pull off the slight home upset.

The pick: Steelers 27 – Bengals 24

Sunday Early Slate

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -7.5

Total: 48.5

Carolina has long been eliminated from playoff contention, but the Panthers remain a feisty opponent, last week's decimation at the hands of the Bucs aside. Dave Canales has already noted that he'll play his starters in what's ultimately an evaluation period for a young roster.

On the other side, Atlanta's overtime loss to Washington on Sunday night placed them on the brink of elimination, but they're technically still alive. A win over Carolina, plus a Buccaneers loss to the Saints, would give Atlanta the NFC South. Considering the Bucs are double-digit home favorites, that's an unlikely outcome, but these games are happening concurrently, so the Falcons will presumably play it straight. 

With that said, Atlanta will no-doubt be scoreboard watching, and if the Bucs build an early lead, it's possible the Falcons could pull back. Given that concern, I want to lean toward the Panthers, though their run defense has reached a point of no return. After surrendering 551 total yards to the Bucs last week, Carolina has now given up at least 200 rushing yards in five straight games – something that hasn't been done since 1981.

I fully expect the Panthers to make this a game, but as long as the Atlanta defense can get off the field – something it did not do in the second half on Sunday night – the Falcons can win by double-digits at home.

The pick: Falcons 31 – Panthers 21

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Commanders -4.5

Total: 44.0

By virtue of their overtime win over the Falcons, the Commanders not only clinched a playoff berth but also leapfrogged the Packers for the 6 seed in the NFC. A Week 18 win – regardless of the Packers' result against Chicago – would lock Washington into that spot, which would mean avoiding the Eagles in the Wild Card round.

Much like the Steelers' situation we noted earlier, my assumption is that Washington will try to maintain its seed, though it's possible the Commanders could instead opt to rest some starters and let the chips fall as they may.

The early indication is that Dan Quinn's squad will not rest starters, but we'll have to keep an eye on weather his tone changes throughout the week.

If Washington does, indeed, roll out its No. 1s, this should be a good spot for the Commanders to exact some revenge on Dallas for The Missed Extra Point game earlier this season. 

The pick: Commanders 27 – Cowboys 21

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -10.5

Total: 40.5

After losing in Minnesota on Sunday, the Packers no longer control their seeding destiny. If Washington takes care of business in Dallas, Green Bay will be the 7 regardless of their Week 18 result. But with both games kicking off at noon, I would expect Green Bay to push for a win. Washington is favored, but it wouldn't be shocking if the Cowboys pulled the home upset to sweep the season series.

Ultimately, though, the Packers missed their final chance to bank a true quality win heading into the postseason. Green Bay has only beaten three teams with a winning record (Seattle, Houston, and a diminished version of the Rams), while it went 0-5 against Detroit, Minnesota and Philly. There's still a belief that the Packers could flip the switch in the postseason, but a date with the Eagles in Round 1 would be a difficult task.

Either way, the Packers should be able to take care of business at home against a Bears team that's dropped 10 in a row and has failed to top 20 points in nine of those losses. Green Bay wins straight up, but Chicago can cover the 10.5.

The pick: Packers 27 – Bears 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -5.0

Total: 45.5

There are a handful of completely meaningless games on the schedule, and boy is this one of them. The Colts pulled off an all-time no-show last week, surrendering 45 points – and 11.0 YPP in the first half – to a Giants team that had topped 22 points exactly once this season. Indy still needed some help to make the playoffs, but it was nonetheless a devastating end to a disappointing and disjointed season.

On the other side, playing meaningless late-season games is what the Jaguars do. They're more than comfortable in this territory. Jacksonville handled the Titans at home last week in the battle of 3-12 teams, and while they may want to hold on to a top-5 pick, I wouldn't expect Jacksonville to lie down in the season finale.

Psychologically, the Colts may be rattled, but they're still the more-talented team. Assuming they play their starters, I like Indy to win this game at home, but the Jags can hang around and cover the 5.5.

The pick: Colts 23 – Jaguars 20

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Spread: Bills -2.5

Total: 38.0

Very difficult game to handicap. Accordingly, we're going to go ahead and slap the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week label on this one. Frankly, it could apply to half of the slate, but this matchup, specifically, has some interesting wrinkles.

For one, the Bills have locked up the 2 seed and have absolutely nothing to play for. Sean McDermott has already clarified that at least some of his starters, including Josh Allen, will see some action, but this should largely be a backups game for Buffalo. Meanwhile, Jerod Mayo is yet to reveal his plan, but his initial comments would suggest that the Pats will play most of their starters.

Of course, the Patriots are currently in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick, and a Week 18 loss – regardless of any other results – would seal it up. Organizationally, the Pats should have zero interest in winning this game, but we've already seen the Raiders and Giants – among other bottom-feeders – kill their draft positioning in recent weeks.

There's no harm in the Bills winning this game, so my guess is that Buffalo will go pedal to the metal with its backups, led by Mitchell Trubisky. If the Pats play their starters for the full game, this is a spot in which they can win outright, but I would not be surprised if we see some level of chicanery as New England looks to lock in that No. 1 pick.

The pick: Bills 23 – Patriots 17

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 38.5

This is a very similar matchup to Bills-Patriots but with slightly less draft-pick implications for the Giants, who currently sit in the No. 4 spot after beating the Colts last week. A win here could drop New York as far down as the No. 8 pick – a less-than-ideal scenario for a team with an obvious need at quarterback.

Much like the Bills, the Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, regardless of their Week 18 result. It's widely expected that they'll rest several key starters, though both Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee looked good stepping in for Jalen Hurts last week against Dallas. Again, like Buffalo, there's no downside to the Eagles winning, although there's an argument to be made that both 2-seeds should want to lose from the perspective of hurting a division rival's draft slot.

I'm not sure the Eagles will ultimately be that conniving, but we'll see. Even the Philly backups might have some advantages over the Giants' starters, so we'll ride with the Eagles to finish out with a win and cover at home.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Giants 20

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -13.5

Total: 43.5

We'll keep this one quick. It's pretty simple for Tampa Bay: win and you're in. A loss would mean the Bucs would need the Falcons to fall to the Panthers in order to make the postseason. 

That's not totally off the table, but it's tough to imagine the well-oiled machine that is the Tampa offense struggling in this spot. The Saints may get a few veteran pieces back, but I don't see them mounting much of a challenge against a team that hung 51 on them back in Week 6.

If the likes of Derek Carr, Chris Olave and/or Alvin Kamara do, indeed, come back, this could get interesting. But I don't really see the merit in any of those veterans playing in a meaningless game. Given what we know right now, we'll roll with the Bucs to win, cover and lock up the division.

The pick: Buccaneers 33 – Saints 17

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Pick

Total: 38.0

As of publication, we have a notable split between sportsbooks on this game. At FanDuel, the Titans are 1.5-point favorites, while the Texans are laying a point at DraftKings. As such, for the first time this season (I think?), we're going to go ahead and make this a pick 'em. 

While the Texans will go on to represent the Sun Belt AFC South in the postseason, they certainly haven't had the vibe of a playoff team. But the rules are the rules. Houston hosting a playoff game almost feels like MLB requiring the White Sox to have at least one All-Star.

Anyway, Houston has nothing to play for, so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of starters being rested. On the other side, Brian Callahan has already revealed that both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis will receive some reps in Week 18. I'm setting the O/U combined interceptions at 3.5.

This is another game with major draft pick implications, as the Titans are currently clinging to the No. 2 pick. A win could knock them out of the top-5, while a loss – plus a Pats win over the Bills – would deliver Tennessee the No. 1 pick.

I have absolutely no idea how this game will play out. If there's a runner-up for the Stay-Away of the Week, this would be it. With that said, it would be very, very Titans to win this game, so we'll lean in that direction.

The pick: Titans 20 – Texans 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -4.5

Total: 42.5

We kick off the afternoon slate with one of the true meaningless games on the slate. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention, and neither team is in contention for a top-10 draft pick. The Niners will officially be without Brock Purdy, who exited late in Monday night's loss to Detroit, so we'll see Joshua Dobbs under center.

On the other side, the Cardinals will likely play most of their starters, though they'll be without James Conner, who attempted to fight through an injury last week. We'll see if the Niners hold out any of their key veterans, but if not, I think this is a game they can keep close, even with a backup QB. 

We'll take the Cards to win outright, but San Francisco can cover.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – 49ers 21

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -10.5

Total: 39.5

This number opened at 7.5, quickly moved to 9.5 and has now ballooned into the double-digit zone. Obviously, the Chiefs will rest Patrick Mahomes, and likely some other key veterans, so it'll be Carson Wentz under center. It's been a while since we've seen Wentz play meaningful football, but he's a relatively high-upside backup, so I don't expect the Chiefs to completely lie day.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are entering a win-and-in scenario, regardless of what happens with the Bengals and Dolphins. Playing at home against a depleted team, Denver should be able to take care of business, but the Chiefs still have enough talent to cover the number.

The pick: Broncos 27 – Chiefs 20

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Seahawks -5.5

Total: 38.5

After opening at 2.5, this line has moved significantly in favor of the Seahawks with the notion that the Rams are leaning toward resting some starters, including Matthew Stafford.

It's somewhat of an interesting decision by LA, which would fall to the 4 seed with a loss, plus a win by the Buccaneers. That would mean a first-round date with either Minnesota or Detroit, as opposed to the Commanders or Packers. Given what we know now, the Rams will prioritize rest over matchup, so assuming Seattle plays its starters, this should be a good spot to take out some frustrations. 

We do need to keep in mind that the Rams do have a viable backup to Jimmy Garoppolo, however, and we should see plenty of Blake Corum, who's been biding his time behind Kyren Williams all season. The Rams won't completely let go of the rope, but Seattle should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Rams 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chargers -5.5

Total: 41.5

This is a tricky game that will largely hinge on the result of the Bengals-Steelers matchup on Saturday. If the Steelers win, the Chargers are locked into the 6 seed and could very well pivot to resting Justin Herbert and some other stars. But if Cincinnati prevails, a Chargers win would move them up to the 5 seed, locking in a Wild Card matchup against the Texans – a significantly more appealing opponent than (likely) the 3-seed Ravens.

With that in mind, it almost goes without saying that betting this game before we know Saturday's results could be perilous. I do think Pittsburgh has a very reasonable chance to win, but that game is about as close to a 50/50 as it gets. Really, your lean on this game should fully depend on what you expect to happen in the Bengals-Steelers game. 

As noted above, I'm on Pittsburgh to win outright, so we'll take the Raiders to cover the 6.0 under the belief that this will end up being a meaningless game for LA. We may have to reassess and issue an updated pick following Saturday's results. 

The pick: Chargers 24 – Raiders 21

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Spread: Dolphins -1.0

Total: 39.5

To finish out the late window, we have what could be an extremely meaningful game for the Dolphins. Miami needs a win – plus a Broncos loss to Kansas City – to steal the 7 seed in the AFC. Of course, the Denver-KC game will kick off at the same time, so while Miami will undoubtedly be scoreboard-watching, there's no risk of resting starters.

On the New York side, there's been no indication that the Jets will pull back, but this is a completely meaningless game for a team that's dropped 11 of its last 13 games and was trailing 40-0 against Buffalo last week.

The big variable here is the status of Tua Tagovailoa, who sat out last week and is questionable, at best, to play in Week 18. The line would certainly imply that Tua won't be out there, but a final call likely won't come until much later in the week.

Tyler Huntley played perhaps the best game of his career last week – 16.6% completion rate above expected – but earlier in the season he really struggled to keep the Miami offense afloat.

The Jets have a chance to play spoiler, but the Miami defense is the unit I trust most in this matchup. I think we get a very low-scoring game and the Dolphins take it by a field goal.

The pick: Dolphins 17 – Jets 14

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.0

Total: 57.0

Alright, here we go. We've laid out all of the contingencies with the rest of the Week 18 slate, but this one is as simple as it gets: winner takes the NFC North and clinches the 1 seed. No rest concerns, no draft pick implications, just a straight-up shootout between two of the best and most consistent teams in the NFL this season.

Both sides are coming off of impressive showings in Week 17. For the second time this season, Minnesota jumped all over Green Bay early and was able to hold on for a more-convincing-than-the-final-score-indicates victory at home.

The Lions, somewhat controversially, opted to play their starters in what turned out to be a meaningless game at San Francisco on Monday night and rolled up 40 points and nearly 450 yards of offense on the Niners. Even with a slew of injuries, the Lions remain an extremely dangerous team, and playing this game at home should give them a significant edge.

With that said, the Lions' defense has given up 475, 382 (to the Bears) and 559 yards of offense over the last three games. Despite the loss on Monday, San Francisco still put up a whopping 7.9 yards per play. There's a reason the total in this game is sitting at a season-high 57.0.

I fully expect Detroit's offense to keep functioning at a high level, but the defense will be a liability against Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison and a red-hot Sam Darnold.

This feels like a complete toss-up game, so I'll grab the points with the better defense and the significantly healthier side.

The pick: Vikings 34 – Lions 33