Beating the Book: NFL Week 17 Spread Picks

Welcome to the NFL Week 17 edition of Beating the Book!

We're putting this out early with the holiday and unique slate, so we'll (try, at least to) keep the write-ups a bit more brief this week.

Anyway, we're coming off of a brutal Week 16 in which we went just 6-9-1 ATS. The Niners and Jags let us down in toss-up games, while Arizona and Tampa Bay losing outright as north-of-a-field-goal favorites were also tough blows. The worst of all, though, was the Eagles – our best bet at -3.0 – blowing multiple two-score leads after Jalen Hurts left the game early. Obviously, if the Hurts injury doesn't happen, we'd feel good about Philly taking care of business, but sometimes that's just not the way it goes.

Looking ahead to Week 17, we'll look to pick ourselves up off the mat with a diverse slate spanning five separate slates. We begin with two games on Christmas Day, the usual Thursday Night game, three games Saturday, a (mostly) full Sunday slate, and then Lions-Niners on Monday Night Football to top it off.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 17 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 16:

• Packers -14.0 vs. Saints: When this hit two touchdowns it felt a little dicey, but the Packers put together one of the most one-sided performances of the season.
• Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns: Fading Dorian Thompson-Robinson tends to be a profitable spot, and while Cincy didn't even play all that well offensively, this game was never in doubt.

Worst calls of Week 16:

• Buccaneers -3.5 at Cowboys: The Bucs were coming off of a dominant win over the Chargers, but in retrospect we should have seen this an obvious letdown spot.
• Titans +3.5 at Colts: Never, ever, ever trust the Tennessee Titans.

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS; 11-5 SU; best bet lost (PHI -3.0)

On the season: 122-114-4 ATS; 166-74 SU; 5-9-2 best bets

Christmas Day Doubleheader

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Chiefs -2.5

Total: 43.5

Yet again, the Chiefs walked away with a win over Houston, and while KC did hit 375 yards of offense, it was another game devoid of big plays. The addition of Hollywood Brown should help, but the Chiefs had only one passing play – a swing pass to Samaje Perine – go for more than 20 yards.

Complain as I may, whatever the Chiefs are doing is working, as they sit at 14-1 and can officially lock up the 1 seed with a win in PIttsburgh. The Steelers, meanwhile, hope to get George Pickens back this week. He would provide a much-needed jolt to a passing game that's predictably lacked explosiveness over the last three weeks. 

With two great coaches and good defenses, this should be a very close and perhaps low-scoring game. We'll side with Kansas City to go into Heinz Field (that's what it's called) and escape with a field-goal victory to secure two weeks of rest heading into the Divisional Round.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Steelers 20

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Spread: Ravens -5.5

Total: 46.5

We were all over the Ravens last week, and they came through with a 34-17 win at home over the Steelers. It wasn't a perfect game, by any means, but the Ravens re-committed to Derrick Henry (24 carries) and were able to mostly shut down the Steelers' ground attack. Baltimore still has to take care of business to wrestle back control of the AFC North, but a win here would go a long way toward accomplishing that.

This could be a letdown spot for Baltimore after a divisional win, but I think the Ravens will be in a good spot to take care of business against a Houston team that's already clinched its division. Sure, the Texans do have a chance to move from the 4 to the 3 seed, but for the last several weeks, this has felt like a team moving in the wrong direction. 

The loss of Tank Dell last week won't help matters for an offense that's struggling to run the ball and has failed to reach 350 yards of total offense in seven of its last nine games.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Texans 21

Thursday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Total: 43.0

After taking another heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Vikings in Week 16, Seattle has seemingly let go of the rope after sitting in pole position to win the NFC West just two weeks ago. But the path for Seattle is still pretty simple: win this week + a Rams loss to Arizona and it'll come down to Seahawks//Rams in Week 18 for the division.

From a betting perspective, we could say Seattle has the benefit of not knowing the Rams' result prior to this game. So they have to go in with a must-win attitude. On paper, that should be very do-able against a Bears team that hasn't won since Week 5, but Seattle's mistake-prone nature could keep this game close.

I do like Seattle to win outright, but the Bears' offense is coming off of its best yards per play game of the season against Detroit. If Chicago can limit the killer mistakes – two fumbles in the first half last week put them in a 20-0 hole – the Bears can cover the 3.5 at home, where they're 4-2-1 ATS.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Bears 21

Saturday Tripleheader

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Spread: Chargers -4.0

Total: 42.5

Big spot for the Chargers, who are in a win-and-in scenario to lock up a playoff berth after pulling off a come-from-behind win against Denver in Week 16. The Pats are coming off of a spirited loss to Buffalo, but as usual, New England committed a couple of killer mistakes to sink any chance of an outright upset.

Still, the Pats are playing with confidence, and Drake Maye continues to improve on a weekly basis. The look-ahead forecast in the New England area calls for potential snow on Saturday, which could muck up a game that will likely already be fairly conservative on both sides. 

We'll roll with the better coach and better quarterback to lock up a playoff spot, but I won't be surprised if the Patriots make LA sweat this out more than they'd prefer. The U43.0 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Patriots 17

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -3.0

Total: 49.5

Cincinnati has scratched and clawed to avoid elimination over the last few weeks, and we're now set up for the game that could determine both sides' postseason fate. To be clear, even with a win, Cincinnati still needs help from both Indy and Miami, but a head-to-head win over Denver would obviously grant the Bengals the tiebreaker should both teams finish at 9-8.

It wasn't necessarily pretty, but the Bengals handled an extremely limited Browns' offense last week, while the Broncos fell to the Chargers in another game that raised questions about Denver's defense. It still rates out as one of the better units in the NFL, but Denver has now given up 34 to the Chargers and 32 to the Browns in two of the last three games. Denver has also been out-gained in four straight. 

We know all about Cincy's defensive flaws, but this is the NFL's No. 6 offense in EPA and perhaps the most dangerous passing game in the league right now. Playing at home with plenty on the line, I expect the Bengals to come out hot and test the Broncos' secondary, which could still be missing Riley Moss. We'll see if the Bengals' offensive line holds up, but I'll put my faith in Joe Burrow in a must-win scenario.

The pick: Bengals 34 – Broncos 30

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -5.5

Total: 48.5

For the second straight week, it wasn't necessarily pretty, but the Rams found a way to win a low-scoring game. After slogging through a victory over the Niners in Week 15, the Rams outlasted the Jets in Week 16 – a game that featured long drives and only six meaningful possessions for LA. 

The Rams now come home with a chance to lock up the NFC West against a Cards team that fell flat in a must-win against Carolina last week. While I don't expect the Cardinals to lay down, they know their season is over, and they could be down to their fourth running back.

While Arizona blew out the Rams early in the season, LA was without Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp went down midway through. Would it have changed the result? Maybe not. But the Rams are a markedly better team now than they were early on, and I expect them to break out of their offensive shell against a Cards team that ranks 25th in pass defense EPA and 28th against the run.

The pick: Rams 30 – Cardinals 20

Sunday Early Slate

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -9.5

Total: 46.5

Following a brutal four-week stretch of schedule, the Bills found themselves in an obvious letdown spot against the Pats last week, and that's exactly what we got. While Buffalo was still able to win fairly comfortably after falling behind 14-0, the Bills' offense struggled to generate big plays, while the defense allowed New England to chew a ton of clock – especially in the first half. Regardless, I don't hold that performance against the Bills, and with a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed (at least) on the line, I don't think we see back-to-back letdowns. 

On the other side, the Jets' offense continues to look like an improved unit, but it's yet to play a complete game. After marching down for a 14-play touchdown drive to begin last week's loss to the Rams, the Jets' remaining drives went as follows: out on downs, field goal, out on downs, fumble, out on downs, missed field goal.

I'd love to take New York to keep this close and give Buffalo a game, but I'm not sure we can trust the Jets to stay out of their own way for a full four quarters. As has been the case all season, Buffalo's talent and style of play provide it with a huge margin for error. The Jets commit more mistakes on a weekly basis than just about anyone, and I think Buffalo takes advantage at home.

The pick: Bills 27 – Jets 17

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -1.0

Total: 39.5

Obviously, this is the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Please, please don't bet it. I'm begging you.

The pick: Jaguars 20 – Titans 17

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Raiders -1.0

Total: 39.5

We've seen some slight line movement in light of the Saints becoming the first team to be shut out this season, but New Orleans is still holding as a tight home favorite. Based on Monday night, it's tough to have any faith in this team, but the Saints have played some other mediocre-to-bad teams closely in recent weeks.

The biggest question is the motivation on the Vegas said. The Raiders got their draft-pick-destroying win last week, and another win would be a tough blow to their chances at landing a top-five pick. With that said, the Raiders, themselves, don't appear to care about that. 

With that in mind, we'll take the Raiders to win this game outright.

The pick: Raiders 18 – Saints 15

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

Total: 48.5

Carolina feels like the side with some momentum after a nice bounceback SU win over the Cardinals on Sunday. But that came on the heels of a faceplant against Dallas. Meanwhile, the Bucs came up short against that same Cowboys team in Week 16, losing their grip on the NFC South in the process.

With the Bucs giving over a touchdown, I want to lean Carolina, but I think this could be a big spot for the Buccaneers' offense, specifically the running game. We'll fade what I would expect to be a fairly public side and roll with the Bucs to cover at home.

The pick: Buccaneers 33 – Panthers 24

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

Spread: Colts -7.5

Total: 40.0

After falling behind 7-0 early on last week, the Colts ripped off 38 unanswered to run away from a Titans team that continues to look like one of the league's most depressing operations. It's a bit concerning that Indy did allow Tennessee to gradually work its way back into the game, but the Colts were able to salt it away with some key first down picksup late.

Heading on the road with a mistake-prone quarterback is always going to be dicey, but the Giants are in a world of pain right now, having scored more than 20 points once (22 in a loss to WAS) in their last 10 games. Last week, Drew Lock tossed a pair of pick-sixes in addition to losing a sack-fumble.

This feels like a big number to trust with Indy, but the Giants are on the can't-best list right now.

The pick: Colts 26 – Giants 17

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -9.5

Total: 43.0

As of publication, we don't have confirmation that Jalen Hurts will play, but the line would imply that he's expected to return. In that case, the Eagles should be able to bounce back from last week's bizarre loss to the Commanders, in which they somehow lost a game in which they scored 30-plus points and forced five-plus turnovers. Since 2000, teams that meet that criteria were 185-4 SU.

If it's Kenny Pickett under center, then all bets are off. But even with Hurts, who could be less than 100 percent, I'm not sure this is a walk in the park for Philly. Dallas' defense still has some holes, but it's playing better now than at any point this season, and the offense feels like a more dangerous unit.

Philly's running game is still the biggest strength here, though, so we'll lean on Saquon Barkley and Co. to win this game comfortably at home.

The pick: Eagles 31 – Cowboys 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Dolphins -6.5

Total: 40.0

If you weren't able to catch Bengals-Browns last week, let me assure you that it went about exactly as expected. Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked like Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Browns turned it over twice in the red zone, and they generated just 273 yards of total offense, despite ripping off a 66-yard run on the first play from scrimmage.

The Cincinnati defense is extremely get-able, as we know, but Miami's D is playing at a high level right now. The Dolphins are still about league-average against the pass, but that's much less of a concern going up against DTR, especially with David Njoku (knee) unlikely to play. Meanwhile, the Miami run defense is up to 7th in EPA and has held eight of its last nine opponents under 100 yards. 

The weather in Cleveland could be a factor, but with the Dolphins' lack of an effective downfield passing game, it likely won't matter as much as it would have in years past. Give me Miami to suffocate the Browns' offense and win by multiple scores.

The pick: Dolphins 24 – Browns 6

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -1.5

Total: 48.5

Massive game in the NFC North for both teams. The Vikings are still chasing Detroit for the 1-seed – they match up in Week 18 – while Green Bay is still jockeying for seeding and in search of a true signature win.

Both teams have been running hot for most of the season, and Green Bay is coming off of a dominant win at home over the Saints. However, the Packers will likely be down Christian Watson, while star rookie safety Evan Williams is out indefinitely.

Playing at home with a quarterback who's posted a QB rating above 100.0 in 12 of 15 games, Minnesota has some advantages. But I like this as a payback spot for the Packers, who fell behind 28-0 in the first meeting back in Week 4. Keep in mind, that was Jordan Love's first game back from injury.

This is a true toss-up, but we'll grab the 1.5 with Green Bay to go into Minnesota and steal a victory.

The pick: Packers 31 – Vikings 29

Sunday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -4.0

Total: 47.0

Michael Penix comported himself well in his first NFL start last week, but we need to keep in mind that it came at home against perhaps the best matchup in the league right now. While I thought Penix looked good, keeping up with the Commanders – at their place – will be a much tougher task.

Atlanta's defense held up well against New York and Vegas, but it's struggled against some of the league's better offenses – in particular, teams that can run the ball as effectively as Washington. Coming off of a wild win over Philly, this could be a letdown spot for the Commanders, but I like them to hold serve and take care of business at home.

The pick: Commanders 30 – Falcons 21

Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 51.0

While the injuries continue to mount for Detroit, last week's win over the Bears was a reminder that this remains an incredibly lethal offense, even without David Montgomery. Now, Chicago coughing the ball up on two of its first four drives certainly helped, but at no point did it feel as though the Bears were going to creep their way back into the game.

Heading out on a long road trip against a well-coached team could present some issues, but the Niners' season is officially over, which is unfamiliar territory for this veteran core. That makes this a tough handicap, but with the 1-seed in the balance, I don't see Detroit suffering a true letdown here.

The pick: Lions 27 – 49ers 23