Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 9 Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 9 edition of Beating the Book!

We were able to scratch and claw our way to another positive week and now sit four games above .500 on the season. Not exactly where we want to be, but we've dug ourselves out of an early season hole and will look to keep the momentum rolling on a difficult Week 9 slate.

On the contrary, it was a rough week for our best bet, which went up in flames the moment Jordan Love hobbled his way to the sideline early in the third quarter. The Packers did win outright, however, and now sit at 6-2 with a wagon of a Detroit Lions team rolling into town on Sunday afternoon.

Looking at the slate as a whole, we once again have a healthy mix of close spread and touchdown-plus favorites. As of publication, no sides have reached double-digits, but the Ravens (-9.0 vs. DEN) sit as the heaviest favorites of the week. The Saints, Bengals, Eagles and Chiefs are each favored by at least a touchdown, as well. 

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 6 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 8:

Browns +9.5 vs. Ravens: While we didn't go as far as to take Cleveland to win outright, the Jameis Boost is real.

Eagles +2.5 at Bengals: We caught a break with Tee Higgins being ruled out late in the week, but the Eagles demonstrated that they're the more complete team in the second half.

Worst calls of Week 8:

Vikings -2.5 at Rams: We knew the line was a bit suspicious early in the week, and it turned out that having both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back completely transformed the Rams' offense at a higher level than we expected.

Chiefs -9.5 at Raiders: A garbage-time touchdown drive sunk the cover here, but in retrospect we should not have trusted this version of the Chiefs' offense to win by two scores on the road.

Last week: 9-7 ATS; 11-5 SU; best bet lost (Packers -4.0)

On the season: 62-58-3 ATS; 79-44 SU; 3-3-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Houston Texans at New York Jets

Spread: Jets -2.0

Total: 42.5

Sometimes we like to get on the NFL's case about these primetime matchups, and while the league has (hopefully) learned its lesson with the Jets, I will say that this looked like a no-doubter, massive game in the AFC coming into the season. Instead, we get a free-falling, 2-win Jets team matching up against the banged-up Texans, who just lost Stefon Diggs for the season.

While I remain skeptical of the Texans' upside, they've already run away with the division and have been able to take care of business despite holding just a plus-9 point differential through eight weeks. The loss of Diggs, on top of Nico Collins, will be a major hurdle, but Tank Dell emerged from fantasy jail last week, while Joe Mixon – who had another 100-yard game last week – has kept this offense afloat all season.

Meanwhile, the Jets' season continues to sink to new depths each week. After a 2-1 start, the Jets have dropped five in a row, with last week's stumble at New England feeling like the most depressing of them all.

Coming into Week 8, teams that held their opponent under 4.0 YPP (the Jets did that) and did not commit a turnover (the Jets also did that) were 195-3 SU since 2010. I could continue to list off stats, but you get the point. The Jets are finding historically improbable ways to lose games on a weekly basis.

With Collins and Diggs out, the Texans' offense will likely play conservatively and rely heavily on Joe Mixon. In theory, the Jets should have the advantage at home, but it remains to be seen if we can trust this offense to show up on a week-to-week basis. I absolutely hate this pick -- the U42.5 is my favorite play -- but we're taking the Jets to finally, finally get back in the Win column.

The pick: Jets 20 – Texans 17

Sunday Early Slate

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Total: 52.0

Big game in the NFC playoff picture, specifically for the visiting Cowboys, who fell to 3-4 last week and are now firmly on the outside looking in. It'll likely take 10 wins to lock up a Wild Card in the NFC, so Dallas may have to go 7-3 the rest of the way with a schedule that still includes two matchups each against Philly and Washington.

As we saw on Sunday night, Dallas continues to struggle to both run the ball and stop the run. Offensively, they're down to 27th in rushing EPA and dead-last in yards per carry (3.4). On the other side… it's even worse. The Cowboys rank 32nd in rush defense EPA, 32nd in yards allowed per game and 27th in yards allowed per carry.

The Cowboys' inability to slow down the run is one thing, but their lack of a ground game has turned the offense into a predictable, one-dimensional unit. Dak Prescott has struggled to avoid mistakes – he throws the same floater interception once per game now – and opposing defenses are able to load up against a passing game that really only has one high-level target in CeeDee Lamb.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off of a win over the Buccaneers, but things are never as easy for Atlanta as they should be. Despite Baker Mayfield throwing two picks and missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs were still driving for the potential go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter.

On paper, Atlanta should be the latest team to exploit the Cowboys' weaknesses, but in what feels like a do-or-die spot for Dallas, we'll take the Cowboys to pull out a back-and-forth win on the road.

The pick: Cowboys 31 – Falcons 27

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -9.0

Total: 45.5

Well, Baltimore got got last week. You come at the king, you best not miss.

While we did calculate the Jameis Bump into our handicap, I'm still shocked that Baltimore found a way to actually lose that game straight up. Dropped passes, misfires by Lamar Jackson, two dropped interceptions, and even a Justin Tucker missed field goal conspired to result in a second what the hell was that? game for Baltimore this season. Most of the time, the Ravens look like a top-3 team in the NFL, but it feels like every year they're good for at least a couple of complete no-shows.

On Tuesday, the Ravens beefed up their receiving corps, nabbing Diontae Johnson from the Panthers. Johnson should be a perfect fit alongside Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, giving Jackson arguably the best group of pass-catchers he's ever had.

Adding Johnson comes at a good time as the Ravens welcome in the NFL's No. 1 defense. The Broncos have held six of their last seven opponents under 20 points, while five of those teams have failed to even reach 15. A very soft first-half schedule has certainly helped Denver's case, but this will be the Broncos' chance to prove it can hang with a team not quarterbacked by Spencer Rattler or Bryce Young.

Given what we saw last week, taking the Ravens as a big favorite feels like a trap. But I'm going to zag the other way and fade what's already a popular side in Denver. The Broncos' defense will give the Ravens trouble, but this is a huge step-up in class, and they won't catch Baltimore off-guard after an ugly loss. I like Baltimore to buckle down, re-commit to the run and ensure that it doesn't suffer a second straight letdown. 

The pick: Ravens 28 – Broncos 17

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -6.0

Total: 49.5

Even with Tua Tagovailoa back in the mix, the Dolphins' free-fall continued last week. But despite sitting at 2-5, the Dolphins find themselves in second place in the AFC East and still (barely) alive in a muddled AFC Wild Card picture.

As expected, the Miami offense looked much better with Tua back, but the defense surrendered 6.3 yards per play and allowed the Cardinals to end the game with a 13-play, five-minute walk-off-field-goal drive.

Meanwhile, the Bills steamrolled the Seahawks in Seattle and continue to look like the class of the AFC East by a wide margin. The Bills could get tripped up at some point, but it's tough to envision that happening at home.

The pick: Bills 31 – Dolphins 21

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Saints -7.0

Total: 43.5

Not a whole lot to say about this one. With Bryce Young at the helm, the Panthers were an auto-fade last week, and that came through. To Young's credit, he wasn't a total disaster, and he did lead the Panthers to an early 7-0 lead, but the talent gap between Carolina and (most of) the rest of the league becomes increasingly apparent on a weekly basis. Sending Diontae Johnson to Baltimore certainly won't help matters going forward.

After a red-hot, 2-0 start, the Saints' season has slowly slipped away, and they come into this game having dropped six in a row SU. The return of Derek Carr should be a significant boost, however, and the Saints' offensive line is in a better spot than it was a couple weeks ago. 

We're not sure who will be under center quite yet for Carolina, but if we're assuming it's Young, the Saints have to be the side. 

The pick: Saints 27 – Panthers 17

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.0

Total: 46.5

I'm not slapping the label on it, officially, but I should note that this game is in consideration for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Pretty much every Bengals game might be in that territory the rest of the way. I just cannot get a handle on this team.

Last week against Philly, Cincy came out with a 17-play touchdown drive and an 11-play field-goal drive to begin the game. But the rest of the way, the Bengals mustered just one more scoring drive and finished with only 280 total yards, including 58 on the ground. On the other side, Philly piled up 6.7 YPP and scored on six straight drives to end the game.

If Cincy gets Tee Higgins back, this is a number it should be able to cover at home. But the Raiders continue to find ways to hang around each week and sit at 4-4 ATS after covering two straight losses to the Rams and Chiefs. Very little about the Raiders' Brock Bowers Raid offense makes sense. They're 31st in EPA, they're far and away the worst running team in the NFL, and yet they played the Chiefs to a one-score game in Week 8.

I don't like this one bit, but we'll take the Bengals to turn it on win by 10 at home, assuming Higgins is in. If he's not, we'll likely flip to the Raiders side. Stay tuned for an update.

The pick: Bengals 26 – Raiders 16

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Chargers -2.0

Total: 42.5

Here we go. All it took was one Jameis Winston start and suddenly the Browns are back to respectability. Cleveland is coming off of far and away its best offensive game of the season, as James was able to resurrect a passing game that had topped 200 yards only once this season (Week 7 vs. CIN). 

The Browns will face another difficult test in Week 9 against a Chargers team that drags opponents into the mud and plays low-scoring games. Unsurprisingly, LA is 6-1 to the under this season and is yet to score more than 26 points in any game. The Browns have some key injuries on defense that we're monitoring, but they should be able to slow down an offense that's quietly piled up 350-plus yards in three straight games. The Chargers' running game has slowed down, however, and both teams will likely struggle to move the ball on the ground. Since returning in Week 7, Nick Chubb has carried 27 times for just 74 yards. 

I like the under here more than anything, but we'll take the Browns to keep it rolling with Jameis at the helm. The key will be avoiding the killer mistakes that somehow eluded Jameis last week, despite his best efforts.

The pick: Browns 20 – Chargers 18

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Spread: Commanders -3.5

Total: 43.5

Despite dominating Chicago from a yardage perspective, the Commanders needed the play of the year to survive some red zone struggles and move to 6-2. Getting through that matchup with a victory – and an unscathed Jayden Daniels – was massive for Washington, which has officially moved from fun story, we'll see how it goes to legitimate threat to win a playoff game or two in a difficult NFC.

They'll now face the Giants for a second time this season. In the first meeting, back in Week 2, Washington pulled out a 21-18 win in the No Kicker Game for New York. Since then, the Giants have gone 2-4 with wins over Cleveland and Seattle and losses to Dallas, Cincy, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Despite their 2-6 mark, the Giants have proven to be a tough out on a weekly basis, and this could be a letdown spot for Washington after last week's dramatics.

Even so, this Commanders team continues to impress me on a weekly basis. Daniels doesn't look like a rookie quarterback, the defense is improving, and the offense is consistently functioning at one of the highest levels in the NFL.

With New York coming off of a gut-punch, our-season-is-probably-over loss on Monday night, give me the Commanders to roll to a touchdown victory on the road with a rest advantage and a healthier Daniels.

The pick: Commanders 30 – Giants 23

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -3.5

Total: 38.5

This is a tough game to evaluate with question marks at quarterback on both sides. Will Levis could make his return this week. But he also could not. Meanwhile, Drake Maye exited last week's win over the Jets with a concussion and remains in protocols as of publication.

Despite Jacoby Brissett coming in for the save last week, I still feel better about this Pats team with Maye at the helm. Tennessee has been crushed in back-to-back weeks by Buffalo and Detroit, and while they're the more-talented team, overall, the Titans struggle to play a full four quarters of competent football.

The Patriots will be a very popular side this week, but we'll fade the public and lean on a Tennessee run defense that should be able to force New England – whoever the QB may be – to beat them through the air. Give me Tennessee to win an incredibly ugly game and cover the number.

The pick: Titans 22 – Patriots 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -1.0

Total: 44.5

It may not stick out as a premier matchup this week, but this is another huge matchup in the NFC postseason picture. The 4-3 Bears sit in last place in the NFC South, while the 4-4 Cardinals are currently leading the NFC West by virtue of tie-breaking wins over both San Francisco and the Rams.

I remain incredibly skeptical of this Cardinals defense, which ranks 30th in EPA, but it continues to come up with just enough stops to keep Arizona in games. The Cardinals have also been getting strong play out of Kyler Murray. The raw numbers are not overwhelming, but Murray's ability to evade pressure and extend drives – he hasn't been sacked in three straight games – has been huge for an offense that's struggled to run the ball on quality defenses.

The Bears' defense certainly qualifies as such, so if the Cards are going to win at home, it'll be on the arm of Murray. It's tough to handicap Chicago coming off of an all-time devastating loss, but I expect Chicago to be able to move the ball on the ground and come up with a few key stops.

The pick: Bears 23 – Cardinals 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -7.5

Total: 45.5

We made the Packers our best bet last week and paid dearly for it. Some credit goes to the Jags, of course, but losing a hobbled Jordan Love early in the second half was the true death knell for Green Bay -4.0. Either way, the Jaguars needed to win that game outright to have a chance to save their season, and they also came out of the loss with a couple of impactful injuries. Christian Kirk is done for the season, while Brian Thomas could be in danger of missing Week 9 with a chest injury.

If Thomas is out, it's tough to envision Jacksonville generating enough offense to keep this game within a score. If he's up, I think the Jags can move the ball on the Philly secondary, but it's difficult to see this as a true bounceback spot for a team that knows its season is over. 

We'll take the Eagles to run their winning streak up to four games and cover the number at home.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Jaguars 18

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Lions -3.0

Total: 48.5

Initial reports out of Green Bay have been positive, but as of publication it remains unclear if we'll see Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback on Sunday afternoon. Willis has, of course, filled in admirably for Love, with the Packers winning all three of the games in which he's appeared this season. But we need to keep in mind that those wins have come over Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville – not exactly the class of the AFC.

On the contrary, the Lions may be the class of the NFL right now. Detroit was approaching wagon status by the end of last season, but it's taken another step forward and now feels like the single scariest matchup in the league. Over the last four games, Detroit has piled up 42, 47, 31 and 52 points while winning and covering each of those matchups. 

Last week's 52-14 drubbing of the Titans was quite literally one of the most statistically anomalous games in NFL history:

• No team has ever lost the yardage battle by more than 150 and won by at least 30pts
  • Tennessee out-gained Detroit 416 to 225 total yards; Titans ripped off 5.9 YPP and lost by 38
• No team has ever scored 50 with less than 90 passing yards
  • Jared Goff finished with 85 passing yards

All of this is to say, the Lions have evolved into a team that can beat opponents in a variety of ways. Passing, rushing, special teams, a combination of all three. Even if Love gets the start, he likely won't be at 100 percent, and I'd still take Detroit. If it's Willis, we'll see some line movement, but I trust the Detroit defense – which has been shaky in recent weeks – to handle what would be a much more limited Green Bay attack.

This game being played outdoors at Lambeau, where rain is in the forecast -- is an edge for the Packers, but the Lions are firing on all cylinders right now and catching Green Bay at a good time.

The pick: Lions 30 – Packers 24

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Rams -1.5

Total: 48.5

Let me start by saying I have no idea if this Seahawks team is good. They might be decent. They also might be bad. What I do know is they're usually good for at least one or two Will Levis-ian turnovers on a weekly basis. 

When Seattle avoids those crushing mistakes, they can hang with most of the good teams in the NFL. But on any given week, they've demonstrated the ability to completely no show. On the other side, the Rams feel like a completely different and rejuvenated team following a huge win over the Vikings on Thursday night. That victory essentially flipped the Rams' entire outlook. Suddenly, they're back in the NFC West race and Cooper Kupp is off the trade block.

I do want to be careful not to overvalue Los Angeles based on that one game, but it's tough to ignore just how dramatically better that offense looks with Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the mix. I think we get a close game that's decided on a late field goal. I'll take the Rams to win and cover as a slight road favorite.

The pick: Rams 27 – Seahawks 24

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -5.0

Total: 46.5

With Anthony Richardson at quarterback, this would've been a smash spot for the Vikings, but with the Colts pivoting to Joe Flacco, we need to take a closer look. 

For what it's worth, Richardson's stat line in Week 8 was a disaster, but he wasn't as bad as the numbers might indicate. He wasn't good, but he was victimized by a number of drops and 50/50 balls that went the wrong way. Regardless, the Colts are making a fairly drastic decision to prioritize pushing for a playoff spot over Richardson's development. And it's tough to argue that Flacco doesn't give Indy a better chance to win right now.

The question is whether Flacco is enough of an upgrade to keep this game close against a Vikings team playing at home with a significant rest advantage. Minnesota losing outright to the Rams was a surprise, but I still view the Vikings as one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, and this should be a bounceback spot for Sam Darnold going up against a brutal pass defense that wasn't really tested by a banged-up Texans team last week.

The Flacco decision scares me, and it pushes me toward the over, but we'll still stick with Minnesota to win this game by a touchdown.

The pick: Vikings 29 – Colts 23

Monday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -8.5

Total: 44.5

Alright, we're on to the final game on the slate, and here is where we get our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. We once again lost on the Chiefs last week after they gave up a long, garbage-time touchdown drive to blow the cover against Vegas. I've struggled to pick Kansas City all season, and this is another difficult spot as the Chiefs sit as big favorites once again.

Kansas City's defense should be able to clamp down on a Bucs team missing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but credit to Tampa for finding a way to hang in with the Falcons last week. While doing the same at Arrowhead will be a much more difficult challenge, if the Bucs can just get to 20 points, that tends to be enough to cover against a Chiefs team that's yet to score 30 points this season.

Kansas City has been maddeningly boring-yet-effective throughout this 13-game SU winning streak. Rarely does it feel as though the Chiefs – or even Patrick Mahomes – are playing well, and yet every week they find a way to bleed out opponents and build on their commanding lead atop the AFC.

My guess is we get more of the same this week, but I'm also guessing that I'll be on the wrong side as far as the spread pick is concerned. Approach this one with caution – I'm begging you.

The pick: Chiefs 28 – Buccaneers 20