Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 6 Game

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Beating the Book.

We're coming off of a 7-7 ATS week – another letdown marred by some tough beats. Tampa Bay blowing a game in Atlanta on Thursday night set us off on the wrong foot, and while we had a successful early window, the Bills and Bengals each losing in walk-off fashion was a crushing blow.

The pain continued into the later games Sunday, as Seattle no-showed against the Giants, the Niners blew (another) two-score lead, and the Steelers topped it off by failing to get a fourth down stop to win the game. All in all, another week in which the late-game breaks didn't go our way.

Anyway, we pick up the pieces and look ahead to another 14-game week with four teams – Miami, Minnesota, Kansas City and the Rams – on bye. Contrary to Week 5, the Week 6 board carries a number of lopsided spreads, with five games currently sitting at 5.0 or higher. The Eagles (-8.5 vs. CLE) are the biggest favorite of the week, while the Texans (-7.0 at NE), Ravens (-6.5 vs. WAS) and Falcons (-6.0) are all favored by at least 6.0 points.

In what's been another low-scoring season overall, we also have some lofty totals, as nearly half of the board sits at 47.0 or higher – a welcomed sight for fantasy football managers and really just anyone who enjoys watching football. For what it's worth, offenses did start to come around in Week 5. Seven games finished with at least 47 combined points, while four games finished north of 50.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 6 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 5:

Vikings -2.5 vs. Jets: While the Vikings nearly blew a three-score lead, the better and more complete team ended up winning and covering in London.

Commanders -3.0 vs. Browns: Cleveland was a popular side as a come-back-down-to-earth spot for the Commanders, but if we've learned anything through five weeks, it's to never, ever trust the Browns.

Worst calls of Week 5:

Seahawks -6.0 vs. Giants: Just a terrible pick. Even without Malik Nabers, the Giants controlled the entire game and sent Seattle into an early panic that it never bounced back from.

49ers -7.5 vs. Cardinals: For the second time in three weeks, the Niners built a two-score lead. And for the second time in two weeks, they blew that lead and lost outright.

Last week: 7-7 ATS; 8-6 SU; best bet won (Packers -3.0)

On the season: 34-41-3 ATS; 44-34 SU; 1-1-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: 49ers -3.5

Total: 48.5

After a few early TNF duds, we get a second straight fun, divisional matchup to kick off the week. Following a 3-0 start, the Seahawks have regressed in a major way the last two weeks – particularly on the defensive side of the ball. It's one thing to get trounced by the Lions in Detroit, but Seattle completely no-showed in Week 5 against a Giants team down its starting running back, as well as Malik Nabers.

New York converted seven more first-downs, ran 13 more plays, piled up nearly 100 more total yards and won the time of possession battle 37:22 to 22:38.  Even after being gifted a 101-yard fumble return, Seattle began pressing on offense and completely got away from the running game, as Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for just seven carries.

We know Seattle can move the ball in a hurry – they blew a great chance to send the game to overtime – but turnovers and a leaky secondary have been major issues of late. For the second straight week, a killer DK Metcalf fumble completely shifted momentum.

While it's doom and gloom for Seattle, the Niners limp into this game at 2-3 after blowing a double-digit lead to a division opponent for the second time in three weeks. Like Seattle, the Niners were also victimized by a crushing fumble – this one had a much bigger impact on the final score – but perhaps more concerning was San Francisco giving up a long, 14-play drive that enabled Arizona to kick the game-winning field goal.

The Niners certainly don't feel like a 2-3 outfit, but second-half execution continues to be an issue, and for as good as Jordan Mason has been, the absence of Christian McCaffrey still looms large.

Even going on the road on a short week, I like the Niners to win a close game, but Seattle can cover with the hook.

The pick: 49ers 30 – Seahawks 27

Sunday London Game

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -1.5

Total: 44.5

As prophesied, the throwback uniforms came through for the Jags in Week 5. The defense tried its hardest to spoil the best game of Trevor Lawrence's career, but Jacksonville was able to hang on for its first victory of the season after blowing a 14-point lead in less than three minutes.

While the Jags' offense was humming, and Lawrence has clearly built back some confidence, Jacksonville's inability to close and avoid giving up huge chunk plays is a concern. The Jags now head to their second home for the first of two London games, and they'll face a significant level-up in terms of defensive competition. Whereas the Colts are a bottom-five unit against the pass, and a bottom-10 defense overall, Chicago ranks third in defensive EPA and second against the pass.

Jacksonville's familiarity with the idiosyncrasies of a London game could give it a slight edge, but the Bears are the better team and should be able to ride their defense – and a few big plays by DJ Moore – to a victory. More than anything, this is a fade of the Jacksonville defense. The Jags continue to be formidable against the run, but they're dead-last in pass defense EPA and 30th in overall defensive EPA. Don't be surprised if Caleb Williams tops 300 yards for the third time in four games.

The pick: Bears 23 – Jaguars 20

Sunday Early Slate

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.5

Total: 51.5

Here we go. This is the game I'm most excited for, by a wide margin, in the early window. After becoming the latest team to pound Cleveland in Week 5, the Commanders are 4-1 and Jayden Daniels is down to 10/1 to win the MVP. For what it's worth, no rookie has won MVP in the Super Bowl era, but a win in Baltimore would catapult Daniels from fun story to wait, this could actually happen.

Last week, the Browns were a trendy underdog pick – 61% of the money was on Browns +3.0 – behind the notion that Washington was simply playing too well and it had to come back down to earth at some point. Suffice it to say that did not happen. Despite two turnovers – including a Daniels pick deep in the red zone – Washington cruised to another comfortable win and a third straight 30-plus-point game.

Entering Week 6, Washington has the No. 1 offense in football behind an ultra-efficient Daniels and a better-than-expected running game. The Commanders lead the NFL in red zone trips (23) and have been easily the best team in the league on third downs, converting at nearly a 52 percent clip. Beyond that, the Commanders are now 8-of-8 on fourth down after converting two more in Week 5.

In retrospect, Washington was clearly the side last week, but the Commanders will face easily their toughest test of the season in Baltimore. The Ravens rank just behind Baltimore in passing, rushing and overall offensive EPA, but they've been the better defensive team. Baltimore's secondary remains a question mark – Joe Burrow put up 392 yards and five touchdowns last week – but the Ravens' rush defense is among the best in football.

If Washington is going to hang around – or win outright – Daniels will have to win this game with his arm. To his credit, Daniels hasn't shown many signs that he's not capable of doing that, but this becomes a much more difficult mountain to climb if Washington isn't able to get its ground game going.

This game is firmly a stay-away for me, but because it's my professional obligation to pick every game here at Beating the Book, we'll take the Ravens to win outright but the Commanders to cover the 6.5.

The pick: Ravens 34 – Commanders 28

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -5.0

Total: 49.0

This is a huge game for Green Bay to keep pace in its own division with the idle Vikings sitting at 5-0. The Packers were able to escape LA with a win (and cover) last week, but Jordan Love again looked sloppy, and the Green Bay defense struggled to generate pressure on the NFL's worst offensive line.

Every week, however, the Packers do have two things going for them: they generate big plays and they generate turnovers. Through five games, Green Bay leads the NFL with 14 takeaways, including five picks from free agent addition Xavier McKinney. No team since the 2021 Bills has racked up as many turnovers in the first five weeks. Turnovers do tend to be flukey week-to-week, however, so some regression is likely coming on that front.

In terms of big plays, Green Bay hit a 53-yard pass to Jayden Reed last week to set up a touchdown. Later, Tucker Kraft rumbled 66 yards for a score. Thus far, the Packers have 18 passing plays of at least 20 yards, while Josh Jacobs has three 20-plus-yard scampers.

Going up against Arizona, the big plays should again be there. The Cards rank 27th in defensive EPA and are giving up the third-most yards per attempt through the air. Like Green Bay, the Cardinals struggle to generate pressure and blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league.

Long story short: I think we get points on both sides. If the Packers can't get after Murray, he should be able to pick apart a feast-or-famine secondary and shaky linebacking corps. Murray is 11-3-2 ATS in his career as a road dog of at least 4.0 points.

For the Cards to win outright, they'll likely need to force multiple turnovers – a distinct possibility given Love's decision-making – but Green Bay should be able to do enough offensively to avoid the upset. One thing to keep an eye on: the weather in Green Bay is projected to be in the low-50s with rain throughout much of the afternoon.

The pick: Packers 30 – Cardinals 24

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Spread: Texans -7.0

Total: 38.0

Coming off of a thrilling home win over the Bills in Week 5, Houston now heads east to take on the lowly Patriots, who came out on the wrong end of the Worst Team in the League Bowl last week.

While New England has found ways to hang around with much-more-talented opponents, the Pats' early season grit seems to be wearing thin. Injuries continue to slam an already thin roster, and New England's complete inability to generate big plays through the air has handicapped a limited offense.

With all of that said, the Pats are officially making the move to Drake Maye this week in hopes of injecting some life into the passing game. While Maye should be an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett in terms of arm talent, this is still his first real taste of NFL action, so I'm not sure if we should really upgrade the Patriots too much.

Houston comes into this game without Nico Collins – arguably the best receiver in the NFL through five weeks – which is a major loss, but the Texans should be able to fall back on more volume for Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who's yet to re-break-out after a monster rookie campaign. 

As much as I'd like to take New England to cover against what I believe is an overrated Texans team, I just can't quite get there. The introduction of Maye is an interesting wrinkle, but we have to fade the rookie in his first NFL start.

The pick: Texans 23 – Patriots 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Buccaneers -3.5

Total: 42.5

With the news that Derek Carr is officially out, the Saints will turn to either Spencer Rattler of Jake Haener, who we briefly saw at the end of the Chiefs game on Monday night. Rattler, a former top recruit, is the upside play, but he's obviously never taken an NFL snap. Frankly, I'm surprised this line hasn't shifted a bit more in the wake of Carr's injury. Even with Carr, this would be a toss-up game, and the introduction of an inexperienced quarterback should give the Bucs an edge.

Setting the Carr situation aside, Tampa has looked like the better team of late, and it has a significant rest advantage after playing on Thursday in Week 5, while the Saints played on the road on Monday night.

While we're wary of this as a potential letdown spot for the Bucs against a backup QB, I'll take Tampa Bay to win on the road and bounce back from failing to close out Atlanta last week.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Saints 17

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -8.5

Total: 43.5

Two weeks ago, I predicted that Deshaun Watson had played his final game in a Browns uniform. That turned out to be incorrect, but Watson hasn't really done anything to deserve to hang onto the job. While he wasn't the primary issue against the Raiders in Week 4, Watson struggled again – against a very gettable Commanders defense – last week. Some of the season-long numbers are borderline-unbelievable.

Through five games, Cleveland is yet to score more than 18 points. The passing game is a disaster, the offensive line has fully crumbled and the running game, while decent on a per-carry basis, has essentially had to be abandoned as the Browns play from behind on a weekly basis.

Watson aside, there still seems to be a lingering belief in this team – largely due to the ferocity of the 2023 Browns defense. The numbers say this year's unit has been about league average, but it's given up 34 and 33 points against the only two good offenses (Dallas and Washington) it's faced.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off of a much-needed bye and should get significant reinforcements with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown both expected to return. Lane Johnson should also be back in the mix, as will Reed Blankenship, who exited the Eagles' Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay.

Even with a massive rest advantage and playing at home, the Eagles present plenty of variance, and shouldn't be a complete surprise if they struggle out of the bye. Perhaps the long-awaited Browns turnaround happens here, but it's really difficult to envision this team taking a meaningful step in the right direction as long as they stick with Watson.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Browns 17

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Colts -1.5

Total: 43.5

The Colts' quarterback situation is up in the air as of publication. Anthony Richardson might be back. He also might not. A good way to gauge situations like this is to ask yourself: who would the opponent want to start? I can tell you, as a Jags fan, my answer last week was Richardson. And my guess is that Titans fans would tell you the same.

While Richardson's quarterback of the future title is not in danger, Flacco has completely elevated a passing game that struggled through the first three weeks of the season. The Jags' secondary certainly helped him out, but Flacco is coming off of his sixth consecutive 300-plus-yard start, dating back to last season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is coming off of a bye and gets the Colts on the second leg of a road swing. If Flacco starts, I'll probably talk myself into Indianapolis, but if Richardson is back at the helm – and if Jonathan Taylor misses a second straight contest, which appears likely – this should be a close game that Tennessee can win outright as a slight home dog.

The pick: Titans 23 – Colts 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 35.5

Coming out of a bye, the Chargers are 3.0-point road favorites, which feels only a little disrespectful to a Broncos team riding a three-game winning streak. The Broncos are winning ugly, but the defense has emerged as one of the league's best, ranking fourth in EPA against the rush and third against the pass. 

We can quibble about the Broncos' early schedule, but wins over the Jets and Bucs are legit, and Denver played one-score games against Seattle and Pittsburgh. The Chargers are another low-scoring, conservative opponent that should help make this a low-scoring game. All four Chargers games have gone under so far this season.

The Chargers do have a significant rest advantage, and the bye should allow Justin Herbert's ankle to move closer to 100 percent. The hope is that Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are able to return to action, while Derwin James will be back from his one-game suspension.

Bo Nix has certainly looked better of late, but we're only two weeks removed from a negative-passing-yardage first half against the Jets.

The pick: Chargers 21 – Broncos 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Total: 36.5

The Steelers have burned us each of the last two weeks, but this is an appealing get-right spot against a Raiders team that's now benched Gardner Minshew twice in the last three games. In each of those instances, Aidan O'Connell came on in relief and looked no better than Minshew, so I'm not sure it really matters who starts at this point.

Ultimately, neither quarterback is set up for success in an offense down its best receiver and completely absent of a consistent running game. That's unlikely to change against the Steelers' NFL-best rush defense, which has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry and one touchdown through five games.

Pittsburgh does has some concerns of its own – namely, an offense that sputtered at home last week and was nearly doubled up in yardage by the Cowboys. Justin Fields threw for just 131 yards, and the Steelers' downfield passing game was a disaster. George Pickens' role in the offense is suddenly a point of contention, but this should be another run-heavy spot for Pittsburgh. Vegas is giving up 4.9 yards per carry on the year and has faced three of the six worst offenses in the NFL over the last three weeks.

I don't feel as good about this one as I thought I would a few weeks ago, but we'll take Pittsburgh to win ugly and cover the 3.0.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Raiders 14

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Falcons -6.0

Total: 47.5

We picked against the Falcons at home last week and paid dearly for it. I will maintain that the Bucs were the right side, but the Falcons have now pulled out three last-second victories in the last four weeks. More importantly, the Falcons offense looked much more like the unit we thought it could be coming into the season. Kirk Cousins had one of the best games of his career, throwing for over 500 yards on a Bucs' secondary that was a step behind all night.

The question is: Can the Falcons keep it rolling and avoid a letdown against the 29th-ranked defense in EPA? 

While I'm not sure we should fully trust Atlanta yet, the Falcons should be able to tear through a Panthers defense that allowed 70 points and 797 yards of offense to the Bengals and Bears over the last two weeks. Carolina's pass rush, in particular, has been an issue, as the Panthers rank dead-last in the NFL in pressure rate and have just six sacks and 18 pressures on the season, per Pro Football Reference. For context, the league average for total pressures is about 45.

In that environment, it's tough to imagine Kirk Cousins struggling, though the Falcons, themselves, also struggle to get pressure, so I expect Carolina to make this a game. We'll side with the Falcons to win and cover on the road behind a big afternoon from Bijan Robinson, who's currently the RB18 in PPR leagues this season.

The pick: Falcons 29 – Panthers 21

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Lions -3.0

Total: 52.5

Another fun, high-total game in the late window. The shorthanded Cowboys got a huge win on the road last week while Detroit was on bye following an offensive eruption in a Week 4 win over Seattle.

While the Cowboys deserve credit for getting a win on the road without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Brandin Cooks, they did so while committing three turnovers and having the benefit of facing a limited Steelers offense. The Lions, perhaps the most balanced team in the NFL, are the complete opposite of that, so Dallas' room for error will be much more limited.

The Cowboys should be able to hang around and keep this close at home, but Detroit will be ready to roll off the bye and should be able to do a much better job of exploiting the Cowboys' key injuries. Even after shutting down the Giants and Steelers on the ground in consecutive weeks, Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in rush defense EPA. The Ravens game in Week 3 is mostly to blame, but the Saints ran for nearly 200 yards in Week 2, as well.

Dallas will be a popular contrarian side in Week 6, but we're siding with the Lions.

The pick: Lions 34 – Cowboys 29

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

Spread: Bengals -3.0

Total: 49.0

Two weeks in a row, the Giants have covered as a big underdog, and they're coming off of an impressive, straight-up win at Seattle without Malik Nabers. Getting the rookie back in the mix would make this a dangerous passing attack, so long as Daniel Jones continues to avoid mistakes.

As of publication, however, it's very much unclear if Nabers will be available. He did not practice Wednesday and remains in concussion protocol nearly two weeks after being knocked out of the Giants' Week 4 loss to Dallas.

Nabers aside, there may be no better matchup in the NFL right now than the Cincinnati defense, which is fresh off of giving up 41 points and 520 yards of offense to Baltimore. For the most part, Cincy succeeded in loading the box and slowing down Derrick Henry, but it only led to further slippage for an already shaky secondary.

On a more positive note, the Bengals' passing game is humming right now, and it's hard to believe this team is 1-4 while ranking third in offensive EPA. Had it not been for one of the worst holds of the 21st century, the Bengals probably win in overtime last week, but they've struggled to get late-game stops and close out opponents thus far. 

The Bengals have an unquestionable talent advantage, but the Giants are gaining confidence and have earned back some respect. If Nabers returns, I think the Giants can hit a few big plays on the Cincy secondary, hang around, and maybe even pull off a second straight win to officially put Zac Taylor on the hot seat. But with Nabers' status in jeopardy, I like this as a buy-low spot for Cincinnati.

The pick: Bengals 28 – Giants 24

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Spread: Bills -2.5

Total: 41.0

Divisional games are always difficult, especially when both teams are riding losing streaks and desperate for a win. On top of that, one of these teams fired its head coach on Tuesday. The big question for the Jets is whether they get the fabled post-firing bounce after parting ways with Robert Saleh?

Unfortunately, no one has the firm answer to that, but I'm inclined to believe Saleh had worn out his welcome with a good chunk of the roster, including his starting quarterback. The Jets will turn to Jeff Ulbrich, their defensive coordinator until Tuesday, to take over as the interim head coach. 

Offensively, Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers will still be running the show. Not sure if that's a net positive at this point. Over their last two games, the Jets are averaging only 251 yards of total offense. Garrett Wilson got back on track in a big way last week – 22 targets certainly helps – but fantasy managers are still in full-on panic mode with Breece Hall.

Finding some semblance of a running game will be the key for the Jets. We can pile on Saleh and Rodgers as much as we want, but very few quarterbacks are going to be successful without a sustainable ground attack. For the most part, the Bills have been decent against the run, though the overall numbers are a bit skewed considering they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground to Baltimore in Week 4. Really, that's the case for every team that's faced the Ravens thus far.

All in all, this feels like a toss-up game between two flawed teams that could both use the services of Davante Adams. The Bills are favored for a reason, but the offense has regressed in a major way since The Beatdown in Buffalo in Week 3. A possibly-concussed Josh Allen completed just 9-of-30 passes last week against Houston. Nine of thirty.

This will be a stay-away on the Circa Millions contest card, but I'll take the Jets to cover and win outright at home in a personal, I'm not the problem game for Rodgers.

The pick: Jets 23 – Bills 21