Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 4 Game

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Beating the Book. 

We're coming off of yet another wild week in the NFL. The Bengals are 0-3, the Vikings are 3-0, Daniel Jones won outright on the road, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have officially hit the rock bottom of all rock bottoms.

Once again, the betting public struggled in Week 3, as popular sides are now 17-30-1 ATS through three weeks. Underdogs continue to thrive, as well. Dogs pulled off eight SU wins in Week 3, including the Giants, Commanders, Panthers, Niners and Broncos all winning outright as significant dogs.

If, by the grace of God, you're somehow still alive in your Survivor pool. Congratulations. You're among the select, chosen few. Even more carnage struck the Circa Survivor contest in Week 3, as the four most-popular picks – Cincy, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Las Vegas – all lost. Heading into Week 4, only 4.5 percent of the original field remains.

All of this is to say, we're off to, quite literally, one of the most unpredictable starts to a season in NFL history. As we turn the page to the Week 4 board, that doesn't project to change anytime soon. While we do have our first double-digit spread of the season (SF -10.0 vs. NE), Week 4 promises to be another slate packed with upsets and unpredictability.

Beginning on Thursday night, the Giants will look to pull off another upset against Dallas, while teams like the Saints and Bucs will attempt to get back on track after faceplanting in Week 3. As of publication, only three games hold a spread of at least 7.0: Niners-Pats, Jets-Broncos and Chiefs-Chargers. Meanwhile, eight games sit at 3.0 or lower, including a nightmare of a Titans-Dolphins game as part of another Monday Night doubleheader. 

The highest total of the week belongs to the Commanders-Cardinals showdown in Glendale. It's currently the only total in the 50s, which reflects the early Unders trend around the league. 

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 4 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 3:

• Giants +6.5 at Browns: I didn't love this one after the Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and immediately gave up a touchdown, but fading Deshaun Watson paid off.
• Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars: The Jaguars beat the last traces of optimism out of me years ago, but Monday night was one of the lowest points in franchise history.

Worst calls of Week 3:

• Texans -2.5 at Vikings: All week, I thought about jumping over to the Minnesota side and just couldn't get myself to pull the trigger. This one was a no-doubter from the jump.
• Bengals -7.5 vs. Commanders: My goodness, Cincinnati. 

Last week: 8-8 ATS; 7-9 SU; best bet lost (Saints -2.5)

On the season: 20-26-2 ATS; 26-22 SU; 0-1-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Spread: Cowboys -5.5

Total: 45.0

After hanging tight with the Commanders in Week 2, the Giants got their first cover and straight-up win of the season over Cleveland last week. That was despite fumbling the opening kickoff and giving up a touchdown on the Browns' first play from scrimmage.

While it's a nice win for the Giants, what does beating the Browns even mean these days? Cleveland's lone win came against the Jaguars – we'll get to them later – and they were steamrolled by Dallas in Week 1.

I like the Cowboys here, but what gives me pause is Dallas' complete lack of a ground game. The Cowboys are putting up just 73.7 rushing yards per game and gaining just 3.6 yards per carry – both bottom-five in the NFL. Granted, Dallas has been in pass-heavy scripts each of the last two weeks, but the Cowboys need to find a way to at least threaten teams on the ground.

Even with that concern, we'll roll with the Cowboys to win and cover on the road. The passing game has been strong, and Micah Parsons should be able to harass Daniel Jones into a turnover or two. We'll like this one a lot more if Dexter Lawrence (foot) ends up being sidelined.

The pick: Cowboys 24 – Giants 17

Sunday Early Slate

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -1.5

Total: 42.0

Really difficult game to start the early window. New Orleans was our best bet last week, and while Derek Carr turned back into Derek Carr, this was still an imminently winnable game for New Orleans. Sure, the Saints gave up 460 yards of offense (without A.J. Brown, no less), but the Eagles threw a pick in the endzone, gave up a sack-fumble, went out on downs twice deep in Saints territory and had a punt blocked that resulted in New Orleans taking over at the Philly 27-yard-line. How many points did the Saints generate off of those five miscues? Zero. Zero points.

After running all over Carolina and Dallas, the Saints' inability to get Alvin Kamara loose (87 yards on 26 carries) was striking. Losing starting center Erik McCoy certainly matters – McCoy is expected to miss a couple months – but it was nonetheless an impressive effort from an Eagles defense that had struggled against the run through the first two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Falcons had multiple chances to win their Sunday Night Football showdown with the Chiefs but failed to convert in the redzone. A missed pass interference on Kyle Pitts would've changed things, but the Falcons should know they don't get those calls against Kansas City.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back here, but even after falling flat last week, New Orleans is still the offense with more upside. As long as they're able to somewhat contain Bijan Robinson, the Saints can win this game outright as a slight dog.

With that said, we have some real injury concern with Alvin Kamara, who did not practice on Wednesday. Chris Olave also sustained an injury at Thursday's practice.

If those key offensive players are out, we're rolling with the Falcons at home.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Saints 21

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Total: 47.0

This line moved from Bengals -5.5 down to 4.5 following their loss to the Commanders on Monday night. It's now moved all the way down to 3.5 at DraftKings, as of publication. Cincinnati is now 0-3, but they still have a reasonable shot to make the postseason with some winnable games coming up on the schedule. 

Of course, both New England and Washington would've been circled as very winnable games coming into the year, so the Bengals' room for error is now extremely slim. They were able to move the ball at will on Washington, piling up 436 total yards on 7.3 yards per play, but the defense remains a significant question mark.

It was able to contain the Chiefs in Week 2, but Cincinnai gave up big play after big play on Monday night and allowed the Commanders to convert 8-of-12 third and fourth-down attempts. And given how the Patriots looked on Thursday night, perhaps it should've been a bigger red flag that they were able to out-gain Cincy and rush for 170 yards.

Entering Week 4, Cincinnati ranks 24th in defensive DVOA, 24th in pass defense EPA and 27th in rush defense EPA. Both of their starting defensive tackles are banged up, and on the other side of the ball, they lost starting tackle Trent Brown for the season.

Meanwhile… are the Panthers back? With Andy Dalton stepping in for Bryce Young, the Panthers' offense got an immediate jolt. Suddenly, Diontae Johnson is a real weapon and Chuba Hubbard looks like the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson (Okay, fine. Warrick Dunn).

We do need to keep in mind that the Raiders certainly played a part in Carolina's resurgence. Vegas was probably overvalued following a flukey, come-from-behind win over the Ravens, and their inability to run the ball on the Panthers' defense was staggering. Through three games, Vegas has just 153 rushing yards on a league-low (by far) 2.8 yards per carry. 

Cincinnati has issues to iron out, but I expect the Bengals to challenge Carolina in ways the Raiders simply did not last week. I also think there's a good chance we get a post-Dalton-takeover hangover from the Panthers. We'll take Cincy to win and cover, but Carolina can ride Hubbard and hang around.

The pick: Bengals 28 – Panthers 23

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -2.5

Total: 41.0

This is in consideration for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Really, any Bears game going forward will probably qualify. Last week, Chicago picked off Anthony Richardson twice, ran 30 more plays than the Colts, piled up 395 yards of total offense, Caleb Williams threw two touchdowns, and they still managed only 16 points in a loss to Indy.

Part of the issue, of course, is Williams tossed two picks off his own in addition to a sack-fumble deep in his own territory. Overall, though, Williams looked better than Weeks 1 and 2, throwing for 363 yards and committing only one turnover-worthy throw, according to PFF.

The big question for Chicago is whether it can generate any semblance of a passable run game. If it weren't for the Raiders, the Bears would be the worst rushing team in football. They're averaging just 72.7 yards per game (3.0 YPC) behind a brutal offensive line.

On paper, this should be a good spot for the Bears to get that running game going – although I thought that last week, too, after the Colts gave up a ton of yards to Green Bay and Houston in Weeks 1 and 2. But the Rams rank 31st in rush defense EPA, surrendering 5.1 yards per carry and 177.0 yards per game to opponents. 

If Chicago can take some of the pressure off of Williams, they can absolutely win this game at home. But until we see it in practice, I'll take the Rams, who despite all of their injuries, still have a significant coaching and quarterback advantage. 

The pick: Rams 23 – Bears 21

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 43.5

While the likes of Tampa Bay and New Orleans crumbled in Week 3, the upstart Vikings kept their hot start to the season rolling with a complete demolition of the Texans. I have my skepticisms about Houston – they were lucky to be facing the Bears in Week 2 – but there's no denying that was one of the early statement wins of the season.

Riding the No. 1 defense in the NFL by DVOA, Minnesota now heads to Green Bay to face a Packers team that was able to more than survive the last two weeks without Jordan Love. While we don't have confirmation, the expectation is that Love will be back this week, which should greatly open up the passing game for a Packers team that currently leads the league in rushing.

For as effectively as Malik Willis game-managed the last two weeks, it goes without saying that Green Bay is a much more dangerous team with Love. But the $220 million dollar man is still coming off of a knee injury, and facing Brian Flores' defense is far from an easy spot to come back.

More than anything, this game will come down to turnovers. Green Bay leads the NFL with nine takeaways thus far, while Minnesota ranks third with six. Whichever quarterback can avoid the killer mistake probably wins this game.

We'll go with a mild upset and take Minnesota to win outright and move to 4-0.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Packers 26

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -6.0

Total: 45.5

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Jaguars fan. This is a franchise that has obviously had an immense number of low points over the years, but Monday night in Buffalo was close to the absolute lowest. In the unlikely scenario that you have a Jaguars fan in your life, consider giving them a call this week. Remind them that it's OK to not be OK.

While I did not expect the Jags to walk into Buffalo and win, no-showing to that degree – with your backs already against the wall – was alarming. Jacksonville is not a good team, but there's too much talent on this roster to look as bad as they have. I don't really have an explanation for it. Poor coaching? Sure. Poor quarterback play? Oftentimes, yes. But the Jags' issues seem to stem well beyond any of the usual cliches. Even the team plane couldn't get its act together.

I'm not sure where Jacksonville goes from here. If last week was a must-win, then this week against Houston is an absolutely-have-to-win. And strangely enough, if that were to happen, there's a world in which the Jags would sit tied for second in the division and only a game behind Houston.

With that said, putting any faith in the Jaguars at this point is essentially a blind bet on well, they can't be that bad again, right? If you squint hard, it's possible to see Week 3 as the middle-of-the-night FBI raid wake-up call Jacksonville needed, but I'm not sure this situation can be salvaged.

Again, I do think this Texans team is a bit overvalued and could easily be 1-2 right now, but the Jags have not given any reason to believe they can go into Houston and hang with the Texans, who are coming off of a wake-up call of their own.

Texans win and cover.

The pick: Texans 30 – Jaguars 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Steelers 1.5

Total: 39.5

Unless you're a Steelers or Colts fan, this is going to be a tough game to justify dedicating your afternoon to. These teams are a combined 5-1 to the Under thus far, and I'm already jumping on the U40.0 before that comes down.

The 3-0 Steelers have won all three of their games in extremely Steelers fashion. We did see a few more explosive plays last week against the Chargers, but ultimately this is a team that's content to win on the ground as much as possible. While the Colts held up well against the Bears, I do think this is a spot for Pittsburgh to get that rushing attack going behind Najee Harris and Cordarrelle Patterson. Jaylen Warren looks to be in danger of missing this game.

On the Colts' side, they'll also need to work through Jonathan Taylor. Anthony Richardson is very capable of mixing in a few head-turning throws per game, but he also leads the NFL with six interceptions.

To me, this is another game that will come down to which quarterback can avoid mistakes and complete two or three big plays downfield. So far, Justin Fields has been the better bet, so we'll roll with the Steelers to win by a field goal.

The pick: Steelers 19 – Colts 16

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Spread: Jets -7.5

Total: 39.5

Well. We faded Bo Nix last week against the Buccaneers and we got got. While Tampa no-showed that game at home, I have to credit to Nix for stepping up and playing easily the best game of his young career. Nix was completed 25-of-36 passes, rushed for 47 yard and a score and, most importantly, did not turn the ball over. Denver's defense also held the Bucs to just 4.0 yards per play and came up with a number of huge third and fourth-down stops.

Denver now heads out for a second straight road game against a Jets team with a two-day rest advantage. Fresh off of crushing the Pats on Thursday night, this should be a good spot for New York to get after Nix and limit the Broncos' running game, which had essentially been dormant for the first two weeks.

Taking any big favorite feels like a trap this season, but I like the Jets to win this game by 10.

The pick: Jets 23 – Broncos 13

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 44.0

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card matchup, which officially concluded the Eagles' 2023 second-half collapse. While Philly has looked a bit shaky through three weeks, Saquon Barkley has supercharged the running game and help offset mistakes by Jalen Hurts, questionable decision-making by Nick Sirianni and key injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Lane Johnson also landed in concussion protocol following Week 3.

If the Eagles are without both Brown and Smith this week, that's a massive hurdle – even against a Bucs defense that couldn't slow down Bo Nix and Tyler Badie last week. Vita Vea is the key injury on the Tampa Bay side. If he's out again, this could be another smash spot for Barkley, who's the RB1 in most fantasy leagues through three weeks.

We'll wait on more injury news before locking this one in, but my initial lean is to buy low on the Bucs and take the points at home.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Buccaneers 23 (assuming Brown and Smith are out)

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -3.5

Total: 50.0

This was already going to be a fun matchup in the late window, but after Jayden Daniels' performance on Monday night in Cincinnati, this game has even more juice.

Coming off of two straight wins, Washington now heads cross-country on a short week to face a Cardinals team that's sandwiched two losses around a beatdown of the Rams in Week 2. Arizona scored a touchdown on its first drive against Detroit last week but after that went punt, punt, field goal, interception, punt, out on downs, punt, out on downs, punt on its next nine drives. On the day, the Cardinals converted only one third down and finished with just 32 rushing yards by running backs on 13 attempts from James Conner, Trey Benson and Emari Demercado.

After stalling out in Giants' territory seven times in Week 2, the Commanders proved in Cincy that they can score. Washington is also the only team in the NFL that is yet to commit a turnover through three games.

For me, the question is whether they can contain the Arizona offense – in particular the running game. Washington gave up well over 6.0 yards per carry to Chase Brown and Zack Moss on Monday night, so this should be a good spot for Conner to get back on track.

This should be a really entertaining game between two of the most fun quarterbacks in the league. But asking Daniels to replicate last week's near-perfect performance might be too much. Give me Arizona to win a close, high-scoring game at home. If Trey McBride (concussion) misses this game, that could swing things for Washington.

The pick: Cardinals 31 – Commanders 27

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -10.0

Total: 40.5

With all of the injuries in San Francisco, I'm surprise this number is all the way up to 10.0. Perhaps Deebo Samuel or George Kittle could be back this week, but at this stage it's too early to tell. Meanwhile, San Francisco lost Javon Hargrave for the season, while Christian McCaffrey is currently out of the country.

With all of those key question marks, it says a lot that New England is still a double-digit dog – even with a two-day rest advantage. I guess that speaks to just how futile the Pats looked in all phases of the game against the Jets last week.

It's possible New England gets its act together and is able to generate just enough offense to hang around, but for now we'll side with the Niners to build an early lead and bleed out a Pats' offense that simply cannot generate big plays.

The pick: 49ers 21 – Patriots 10

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chiefs -7.0

Total: 40.0

This number continues to rise, but I really like the Chiefs in this spot – due in large part to the Chargers' injury issues. If Justin Herbert plays, he'll be limited and would be at risk of leaving mid-game, as he did last week against Pittsburgh. Los Angeles could also be without Joshua Palmer, Joey Bosa (hip), Derwin James (suspension) and both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.

Of course, KC has injuries of its own, and the Chiefs have a tendency to make things more difficult than they need to be, but if you're giving me Patrick Mahomes vs. Taylor Heinicke, I'm taking Mahomes.

We'll update this one pending the injury situations, but for now I like the Chiefs to roll to their first comfortable victory of the season.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Chargers 13

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Browns -1.5

Total: 37.0

Obviously, this is going to be our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Truly a no-doubter. I'll also be nominating this for the Stay-Away of the Year. 

The Browns' only win came against the Jaguars. The Raiders just got punked by Andy Dalton – one week after beating the Ravens in Baltimore. I don't know what to make of either of these teams. It's worth noting, by the way, that Antonio Pierce was considering making a QB change but will stick with Gardner Minshew for at least one more week. 

On one hand, it feels like the Raiders should not be favored against anyone right now. On the other… it's the Browns, who are dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. Myles Garrett, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller are all at risk of missing this game.

On the Raiders' side, we found out Thursday that their two best players -- Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby -- will both be out. Cannot stress enough: this is the stay-away of all stay-aways.

The pick (updated): Raiders 20 – Browns 17

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -2.5

Total: 46.5

Pardon my language, but this is one heck of a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses by DVOA thus far. Baltimore fought hard to blow a three-score lead against Dallas last week but was able to hang on for its first win of the season. Meanwhile, the Bills… well, they also won in Week 3. We'll leave it at that.

Through three weeks, the Bills have been arguably the most impressive team in the NFL. Since rallying back to beat the Cardinals in Week 1, Buffalo has breezed past Miami and Jacksonville with Josh Allen looking like the early MVP favorite. Allen leads the NFL in QBR and is yet to throw a pick after tossing 18 interceptions a season ago.

Baltimore has been similarly dependent on its start quarterback. Lamar Jackson has only three passing touchdowns, but he's already run for 254 yards (84.7 YPG) and is ripping off 7.3 yards per attempt – by far the highest number of his career. The Bills did allow 57 rushing yards to Kyler Murray in Week 1, so containing Jackson on the ground will be key.

Admittedly, this feels like the type of game Baltimore always finds a way to win at home. But my intuition hasn't exactly been spot-on so far this season. Getting 2.5 points, we'll roll with the Bills to turn Jackson into a passer and create enough big plays of their own to win by a field goal.

The pick: Bills 31 – Ravens 28

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Titans -1.0

Total: 37.0

Tough to get a read on this game with the injury question marks for the Dolphins – specifically at quarterback. Skylar Thompson got the call last week in Seattle and was woefully ineffective before being knocked out of the game. Believe it or not, Tim Boyle was unable to lead Miami to a comeback.

My guess is we see Tyler Huntley at quarterback this week, which presents an interesting dynamic for Mike McDaniel, who's never really had a true running quarterback. While Huntley could open things up for De'Von Achane and a struggling Miami ground game, I'm not sure he brings much of a boost for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

The question for Tennessee is whether Will Levis can finally go a week without a backbreaking turnover. From The Pick Six to The Lateral to 2 Pick 2 Six, Levis has accounted for roughly 80% of the league's what the hell was that? moments thus far.

This is a big-time stay-away for me. If Levis can keep it clean, Tennessee can win this game on the road against what should be a limited offense. If not, Miami has the horses, and should get just enough out of Huntley, to hang around.

The pick: Titans 21 - Dolphins 17

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 46.5

Banger of a game to provide a much-needed distraction from Titans-Dolphins. The Seahawks come in at 3-0 with one of the best defenses in football, though they've certainly benefited from facing the Broncos, Patriots and Skylar Thompson Dolphins. It goes without saying that Detroit will be Seattle's toughest test to date.

While the Lions are 2-1, they seem to be missing their killer instinct. After going to overtime against the banged-up Rams, then going 1-of-7 in the red zone against Tampa Bay in Week 1, Detroit came away with a win in Arizona but felt like it left opportunities on the table. After going up 20-10 at halftime, Detroit punted four times, went out on downs and threw a pick on its first six second-half drives. Sam LaPorta also suffered an ankle sprain that could keep him out this week, while All-Pro center Frank Ragnow went down with a torn pectoral.

We want to be careful not to overvalue Seattle after some favorable schedule spots, but the Lions giving 4.5 is too high. The Seahawks got Zach Charbonnet on track last week and have a new-look offense that should be able to keep generating big plays through the air.

Really, the only knock on Seattle is, like Detroit, it hasn't shown a killer instinct. The Seahawks needed overtime to beat a very bad Pats team, and even last week had six consecutive scoreless drives – with a turnover and three three-and-outs – after building an early 17-3 lead on Miami.

All told, this should be a very competitive, back-and-forth game. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams in the last four seasons. Seattle has won each of the last three, with final scores of 51-29, 48-45 and 37-31. Taking the over is appealing, but keep in mind that Detroit is 3-0 to the under, and Lions games are going under by 14.0 points per game.

Lions break the streak and win at home, but Seattle covers the 3.5.

The pick: Lions 31 – Seahawks 28