Beating the Book: ATS Picks, Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 5 Game

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Beating the Book.

It's hard to believe we're already almost a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. Week 4 was yet another pedestrian week for us – there's no two ways about it.

Looking back, the writing was on the wall as soon as Brandon Aubrey – who never misses kicks, I was told – shanked a late field goal that would have delivered us a Cowboys cover on Thursday night. That was a clear omen for the week to come, which once included a handful of shocking results, led by the Jets losing outright at home to a man with negative passing yardage in the first half.

Following a banner 2023 season, the public continues to take a bath on a weekly basis. We knew regression was coming, but this has been a historic bloodbath.

As we turn the page to Week 5, I'm saddened to report that we have reached the onset of bye weeks. While that means two fewer games for me to wildly overthink, it also means two fewer games we get to watch this weekend, as the Lions, Titans, Eagles and Chargers are all idle.

Gone is the Monday night double-header, but we do get our first London game of the year between the Jets and Vikings. As the board currently stands, only two games carry a spread of at least 6.0 points: Seahawks-Giants, Cardinals-49ers. Every other game, save for Saints-Chiefs (KC - currently sits at a 3.5-point spread or closer.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 5 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 4:

Vikings +2.5 at Packers: I had a feeling Jordan Love might be a little rusty, but I didn't foresee Green Bay turning it over four times, missing two field goals and going out on downs twice.

Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Eagles: I know the Bucs fell flat in Week 3, but I'm still not sure why the Eagles – down several key players – were getting so much respect in that spot.

Worst calls of Week 4:

Cardinals -3.5 vs. Commanders: Arizona marched for a touchdown on its first drive before politely declining to take part in the shootout the rest of the way.

Steelers -1.5 at Colts: This was my best bet so it has to be on the Worst Calls list. Joe Flacco taking over for Anthony Richardson early on was not part of the calculation.

Last week: 7-8-1 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet lost (Steelers -1.5)

On the season: 27-34-3 ATS; 36-28 SU; 0-1-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -1.5

Total: 43.5

On a slate littered with tight spreads, it's fitting that we begin with what feels like a pick the winner game between two NFC South rivals. Atlanta snuck out a win over the Saints on a 58-yard field goal, while the Bucs dominated a shorthanded Eagles team at home.

My first inclination is to trust the Bucs here, though that no-show against Denver in Week 3 is still fresh in the mind. However, Tampa Bay has been the more consistent team overall, and we saw just how much better this defense looks with Vita Vea back in the mix.

I'm still high on Atlanta's defense, but the offense is still a bit clunky. The Falcons did not have an offensive touchdown last week, Bijan Robinson had only seven carries, and Kyle Pitts handed his fantasy managers a robust 0.0-point week. For the second straight week, play-calling and time-management were issues for Atlanta, as well.

With Robinson (hamstring) banged up, we'll side with the Buccaneers to win on the road by a field goal.

The pick: Buccaneers 23 – Falcons 20

🇬🇧 Sunday London Game 🇬🇧

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Total: 40.5

On a neutral field, I'm surprised this number isn't a bit more tilted in favor of Minnesota. What do the Vikings have left to prove at this point? Not only do they carry a perfect 4-0 record into Week 5, but Minnesota has ripped off three straight impressive wins over the Niners, Texans and Packers – three of the toughest teams on their schedule.

Sure, the Vikings did almost blow a 28-0 lead at Lambeau Field, but this has been arguably the most complete team in the NFL thus far. The fact that Sam Darnold has better MVP odds (13/1 at DraftKings) than Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love says it all.

As much as I love this Minnesota team, I'm also starting to sour on the Jets. Week 4 was an outright disaster on every level, and while the weather was a contributing factor, the Jets' issues run much deeper. Both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are off to sluggish starts, and New York doesn't have a deep bevy of playmakers on a top-heavy roster. With all due respect to Allen Lazard, it's not a great sign that he's out-produced Wilson through four weeks.

With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Jets' floor should be much higher week-to-week than it was against Denver, but this Minnesota defense is not what the Jets want to see right now. Give me Minnesota to win by a field goal as the Darnold International Revenge Tour rolls on.

The pick: Vikings 24 – Jets 17

Sunday Early Slate

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3.5

Total: 42.0

While the Panthers came up short last week against Cincy, I was impressed that they were able to hang around with one of the best offenses in football. Andy Dalton is clearly a massive upgrade in overall competency, and he's completely freed Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard from fantasy prison. The Panthers may not win many games, but they're back in "frisky underdog" territory on a weekly basis.

What concerns me about Carolina is Dalton took over before facing two of the most exploitable defenses in the league in Las Vegas and Cincinnati. For as many issues as the Bears may have offensively, this is a strong defensive unit that's been particularly stingy against the pass. Even with an upgrade at quarterback, Carolina is still one of the least-talented teams in the NFL, and it may be a struggle to get to 20 points with a limited tree of pass-catchers.

I like the Bears to win outright, but whether they can cover will depend on the success of the running game. Chicago was finally able to get D'Andre Swift going in Week 4, which took the pressure off of Caleb Williams and enabled the Bears to function with a more-balanced attack. With Williams still in development, the Bears can't be throwing the ball 35-to-50 times, as they did against Houston and Indy, and expect to have success.

I like Carolina to hang around and make this interesting, but much like last week against LA, the Bears have enough talent to take advantage of a bad defense and win this game at home.

The pick: Bears 23 – Panthers 17

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -2.5

Total: 46.5

Well, the Jaguars are the lone winless team in the NFL, and yet they're 2.5-point favorites at home this week. That number is partially contingent on some injuries for Indianapolis, which could be without Anthony Richardson (hip) and, more importantly, Jonathan Taylor (ankle). Taylor's status will be something to closely monitor this week, though if the Jags have one redeeming quality, it's been their run defense. Through four weeks, Jacksonville is allowing only 3.9 yards per attempt – good for fifth in the NFL.

But as we know, the Jags have a myriad of other issues. Trevor Lawrence struggled again in Week 4, missing Brian Thomas and Christian Kirk on wide open deep balls that likely would have swung the result. In the third quarter, the Jags also failed to turn a 58-yard Tank Bigsby scamper into points – a series that felt like a microcosm of the season thus far.

If Richardson does play in this game, you could talk me into Jacksonville winning outright. As a Jags fan, I do not want to see Joe Flacco. I reckon plenty of Steelers fans probably felt the same way last week. Richardson is clearly the higher-upside player, but Flacco is better positioned to attack an incredibly weak Jags pass defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA. The Jags are the only team in the NFL yet to force a turnover (we're not counting last week's muffed punt), and they've consistently struggled to generate pressure. With Josh Hines-Allen in concussion protocol, this may not be the week that changes.

With all of that said, the Jaguars are breaking out the emergency throwback jerseys this week in a last-ditch attempt to salvage some dignity. These are the best uniforms in NFL history, in my humble (and incredibly biased) opinion. They were retired at the end of the 2008 season when the Jags made the single biggest uniform downgrade in the history of sports and, coincidentally, kicked off 15-plus years of futility. Ironically, the last game in which the Jags wore these uniforms was in Week 17 of that 2008 season against the Baltimore Ravens, who were quarterbacked by none other than Joe Flacco.

The throwback unis swoop in to save the day. Jags get their first win of the season.

The pick: Jaguars 27 – Colts 23

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Ravens -2.5

Total: 50.5

Fascinating matchup in the AFC North between two teams that got off to slow starts but are still very much in contention for the AFC crown. At first glance, this feels like a big letdown spot for Baltimore coming off of a dominant home win in primetime over Buffalo. Meanwhile, Cincinnati got its first win of the season over Carolina, and the Bengals' offense is firing on all cylinders with Tee Higgins fully up to speed.

Baltimore will struggle to slow down Joe Burrow and Co., but the Ravens' defense showed up in a major way against a Bills offense that had buzz-sawed through its first three opponents. The Bengals' defense is the unit I'm much more concerned about.

While Cincy has piled up over 800 yards of offense over the last two weeks, it accomplished that against two of the five worst defenses in the NFL. And for their part, the Bengals allowed 731 combined yards to Washington and Carolina. The Cincy run defense is the biggest concern, ranking 27th in EPA and allowing nearly 150 yards per game through four contests. That's a bad formula against a Ravens offense averaging 6.4 yards per carry and rushing for nearly 50 more yards per game than any other team.

With all of that said, I have a feeling this is a classic spot in which the Bengals show up at home and buck some of their early-season defensive trends. Both teams need a win, but Cincy needs it more.

The pick: Bengals 27 - Ravens 24

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -1.0

Total: 35.5

Not much to say about this one. Frankly, I would not advise anyone to bet on either of these teams.

If nothing else, let's take a moment of silence for those of us with Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle on our fantasy rosters.

...

Alright, on we go.

New England has looked much more like the team we thought it would be over the last two weeks, and it feels like we're inching closer and closer to seeing Drake Maye. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are the single worst offense in the NFL and are coming off of their worst showing of the season.

While it's natural for any team to struggle after losing a quarterback, the Dolphins' inability to get anything going with Hill, Waddle and Achane healthy has been shocking. I'm a Mike McDaniel Guy, but his stock has taken a hit these last two weeks – especially in light of what Matt LaFleur was able to scheme up with Malik Willis in Green Bay.

This feels like an impossible spot between what may be the two worst offenses in football. Miami's passing game may be dead, but I'll side with the Dolphins to get Achane going and win the ugliest game of the year, to date.

The pick: Dolphins 13 – Patriots 9

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -3.0

Total: 44.5

It's been a very long time since anyone would describe the Washington Commanders as a fun team to watch. That has changed in a hurry as Washington has rapidly developed into an offensive juggernaut in wins over New York, Cincinnati and, most recently, Arizona.

Early on last week, it looked like we may be set for a shootout. But after letting up a touchdown on the Cardinals' first possession, Washington clamped down and forced five consecutive non-scoring drives. A fourth-down stop, a quick field-goal before halftime and a long, pass interference-aided touchdown drive to begin the third quarter broke the game open, and the Commanders didn't look back.

Dating back to Week 1 against the Bucs, the Commanders have scored on a preposterous 22 of their last 23 possessions (excluding a pair of end-of-half kneel-downs in the Cincy game). After combining to hit 47-of-53 passes against the Bengals and Cards, Jayden Daniels has more scoring drives than incompletions on the year. Wild stuff.

While Washington appears to finally be emerging from the doldrums of prolonged mediocrity, the Browns seem to be sinking right into their old ways. Cleveland is coming off of yet another mega-depressing loss – this time blowing a two-score lead to a Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby-less Raiders team.

At some point, the Browns will get healthier – particularly on the offensive line – and begin to look like a real NFL team, but until that happens, we'll continue to fade Deshaun Watson and an offense that's put up 17, 18, 15 and 16 points thus far. This does feel like a potential come back down to earth spot for the Commanders, but they can win a close game.

The pick: Commanders 26 – Browns 20

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Spread: Bills -1.0

Total: 48.0

We walked right into the Bills trap last week, and while I'm not shocked the Ravens won that game, I am surprised that the Bills' defense wasn't better prepared. For as good as Buffalo has looked so far, we do have to keep in mind that their three victories have come over teams with a combined two wins (Jacksonville, Miami, Arizona). 

Still, I like this as a bounceback spot for the Bills, who won't be caught off-guard two weeks in a row. While Houston should get Joe Mixon back, the Texans have struggled to run the ball of late, turning to a one-dimensional offense that works against Jacksonville but likely won't find as much success against a solid Bills secondary. C.J. Stroud piled up 345 yards on one of the league's worst secondaries, but on balance Houston ranks below league average in offensive DVOA through five games.

I fully expect this to be a battle that Houston keeps close at home, but I see Buffalo as the more balanced team.

The pick: Bills 27 – Texans 23

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Packers -3.0

Total: 48.0

The Packers fell to 0-2 SU and ATS with Jordan Love last week, and while Love made a few critical mistakes to put Green Bay in a 28-0 hole, he also led a furious comeback to drag the Packers back into the game. Ultimately, the Packers wasted eight possessions in the loss, not counting punts: three Love interceptions, a Tucker Kraft fumble, two missed field goals and two possessions on which they went out on downs (including a dropped touchdown by Dontayvion Wicks). 

In the two games we've seen from Love, Green Bay has been able to generate chunk plays and move the ball, but Love is still battling accuracy issues and continues to make a handful of downright careless throws per week. The Rams' defense is one of the worst in the league and should allow Love more leeway than Minnesota, but the Packers' defense will also need to shore up some leaks after allowing the Vikings to run up 374 yards of offense.

With Cooper Kupp still out and Los Angeles ranking 31st in defensive DVOA, we'll ride Green Bay to avoid too many critical mistakes and win this game behind another high-scoring offensive performance.

The pick: Packers 30 – Rams 23

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -1.5

Total: 36.5

I cannot fathom that one of these teams – barring a tie, which is very much in play – is going to be 3-2 heading into Week 6. I'm really not sure there's much analysis to provide here. The Broncos' defense is definitely better than I expected, and the Raiders somehow continue to find ways to move the ball despite a limited ground game and key pieces missing. That includes Davante Adams, who very well may have played his final game in the black and silver.

If you're betting this game, it's time to call the hotline.

The pick: Broncos 18 – Raiders 16

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -7.5

Total: 49.5

After blowing a game to the Rams in Week 3, the Niners got back on track in a big way against the lowly Patriots. In addition to forcing three turnovers, San Francisco was able to bludgeon New England on the ground, with Jordan Mason leading the way (123 yards, 5.1 YPC). In a touching tribute to Anthony Richardson, Brock Purdy completed only 15 passes for 288 yards – good for 19.2 yards per completion.

In terms of the defensive matchup, this should be another plus spot for San Francisco. Through four weeks, Arizona ranks 29th in rush defense EPA, giving up 146.5 yards per game and an NFL-high eight touchdowns. Over the last two weeks, Arizona has surrendered over 400 yards on the ground. Against the pass, the Cards have been marginally better, but they still rank 25th in pass defense EPA.

With Trey McBride back in the mix, I expect more out of the Arizona offense, but ultimately they won't be able to get enough stops to prevent San Francisco from coming away with a comfortable victory at home. This a matchup Kyle Shanahan has dominated of late, with the Niners winning each of the last four meetings by at least 16 points.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Cardinals 17

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -6.0

Total: 43.5

We got the shootout we hoped for (and deserved, frankly) on Monday night in Detroit. Unfortunately for Seattle, they came out on the wrong end of it, despite putting up 516 yards of total offense. Had DK Metcalf not fumbled fighting for extra yardage late in the first quarter, things could have gone differently.

Alas, Detroit took a two-score lead and our hopes of Seattle delivering a cover took a major hit.

Regardless, the far bigger concern for Seattle has to be its inability to get stops. Detroit racked up 7.8 yards per play and at one point scored touchdowns on five of six drives. Jared Goff finished the night 18-of-18 passing and even caught a touchdown from Amon-Ra St. Brown. 

We knew it would be a significant level-up in competition for the Seahawks, who had previously faced Skylar Thompson, Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix. But this felt like a wake-up call for a defense that's still a work in progress under Mike MacDonald.

The good news for Seattle is they return home to face the Giants this week before the schedule really picks up. The Giants certainly feel like a more competent bunch over the last two weeks, but this should be a good matchup for Seattle to get back on track against the NFL's 26th-ranked offense. There's also significant concern that Malik Nabers may not be available this week.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks are a little sluggish on a short week, but we'll take them to win and cover at home.

The pick: Seahawks 29 – Giants 19

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -1.5

Total: 43.0

Sunday Night Football brings us a battle between two teams that cannot run the ball and two teams that are both dealing with key injuries. For Dallas, both Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons will sit out, while Pittsburgh is banged up all over the defensive line.

The Steelers – and under bettors – were caught off guard by a surprise Joe Flacco cameo last week, and the veteran was able to avoid turnovers and lead the Colts to over 350 yards of total offense. While the Pittsburgh defense couldn't hold up, the Steelers did generate over 400 yards of offense of their own. Justin Fields had one of the best passing days of his career (312 yards), while adding 55 rushing yards and two scores en route to a QB1 fantasy finish.

With Lawrence and Parsons out, this Dallas defense should be exploitable, though the Steelers' OLine injuries could offset that. Meanwhile, the Cowboys feel like a two-man offense so far, and if Pittsburgh is able to limit CeeDee Lamb, it could be a long night for the Dallas offense.

We'll take Pittsburgh to win a close game at home, but the U43.0 is my favorite play.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Cowboys 17

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -6.0

Total: 42.0

Interesting spot for the Chiefs, who are somehow 4-0 without feeling like they've played well in any of those four games. The latest Extremely Chiefs Win came this past week in LA, when Carson Steele lost a fumble, Patrick Mahomes dive-bombed Rashee Rice, KC fell behind by two scores and still ended up winning by a touchdown. Dating back to last season, Kansas City has now won 10 games in a row by just 61 total points.

The Chiefs now return home to host the 2-2 Saints, who've come back down to earth after back-to-back 40-plus-point eruptions to open the season. New Orleans lost a very winnable Week 4 game at Atlanta in which they muffed a punt inside the 5-yard-line and did not allow a defensive touchdown.

Without Rice, I expect the Chiefs to get Travis Kelce more involved and likely rely heavily on the ground game against a Saints defense that's giving up 4.8 yards per carry so far. Recent history strongly dictates that Kansas City gets a couple of key breaks and finds a way to win a close game, but I'll take New Orleans to cover the 5.5.

The pick: Chiefs 21 – Saints 17