New Orleans Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

New Orleans Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

New Orleans Bowl Picks: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

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The 8-4 Eagles will play their third straight bowl game against the 9-3 Bearkats on Thursday. Georgia Southern comes in 7-4-1 ATS with the over hitting in five of their games, while the total has gone under in three straight and five of their last seven. Sam Houston comes with a 6-6 ATS record, failing to cover in five of their last six, while the total has gone under in nine of their 12 outings. Bettors that favor trends should have some clear angles here.

Georiga Southern vs. Sam Houston New Orleans New Orleans Bowl Odds

Spread: Georgia Southern -3.5 ( -110 ESPN Bet), Sam Houston  +4.5 (-110 BetRivers)

Total: Over 47.5 (-112 FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 48.5 (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Georgia Southern -175 (ESPN Bet), Sam Houston State +160 (BetMGM Sportsbook)

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The spread opened at -4.5 for the Eagles and has trended upward all week, peaking at -7 before slightly trending down, though there are varying numbers across sites. As such, we've seen moneyline numbers move congruently, with GSU opening at -180 and peaking at -230 before slumping back downward. There's not enough value to consider the Eagles simply to win at this number, but it's a live option for a parlay.

The total here is interesting, opening at 46.5 and rising steadily all week despite Sam Houston's under trend.

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston New Orleans Bowl Betting Picks

We all know bowl games are about who's playing and who isn't. Sam Houston looks to be hit particularly hard with 12 players allegedly in the portal, though some have expressed interest in playing before departing. That makes this difficult to forecast.

The Bearkats have been elite defensively, ranking 19th in points allowed (20.0 ppg), 56th against the run (141.5 ypg but 3.9 ypc), and 10th against the pass (174.1 ypg, 5.7 ypa and a 13:12 TD:INT ratio). They want to grind this out and give themselves a shot in the fourth quarter, regardless of who suits up.

And that seems to play into Georgia Southern's weakness, as they can't stop the run, allowing 5.2 ypc. They're even worse against the pass, allowing 262.4 ypg. The Eagles are far more trustworthy offensively, but they aren't elite in any facet. I'm a big single-game parlay guy using alternative lines, and betting Sam Houston +14.5/under 54.5 gets us a -105 odd. That looks terrific. 

Nothing presents favorably for Georgia Southern to step on the gas offensively. They should win. Take the spread or total that rises further from opening.

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Best Bet: under 48.5 points (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston New Orleans Bowl Betting Predictions

Not knowing a lick about who will suit up makes this a pretty gross game to project. Georgia Southern being in their third bowl game in as many years while dropping the last two gives me a clear lean that they need to win this one. No one would fault Sam Houston for lying down; their coach is leaving for Temple, of all places.

Ultimately, give me the Bearkats to find success on the ground and frustrate GSU's offense as a result. Clay Helton gets a needed bowl win with plenty of angst throughout.

Georgia Southern 24-17

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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