This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Frisco Bowl Picks: Memphis vs. West Virginia
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Bowl season arrived early, with the Salute to Veterans Bowl happening the same day as Army-Navy and Travis Hunter winning the Heisman because voters couldn't believe a guy could do two things well and so overlooked a running back having an all-time season playing for a coach who isn't more worried about his cult of personality than his team's performance. Also, it was a good game! Next up, we have the Frisco Bowl, brought to us by Scooter's Coffee (the second-worst name for a coffee place I've ever encountered, but the first is a racial epithet, so I shall not repeat it), and it features the Memphis Tigers and the West Virginia Mountaineers. Bowl games can make you feel hubristic for having any expectations or presumptions, but that doesn't stop me from feeling pretty good about how this one will shake out.
Memphis vs. West Virginia Frisco Bowl Odds
Spread: Memphis -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), West Virginia +6.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 60.0 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 59.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Memphis -210 (BetRivers Sportsbook), West Virginia +200 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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The Tigers are a slight favorite on this neutral field, and, again, perhaps this is hubristic, but I feel a little stronger about this one than the oddsmakers at the sportsbooks seem to be feeling.
Memphis vs. West Virginia Frisco Bowl Betting Picks
The Tigers are an AAC team, and the Mountaineers play in the Big 12, but this year, the difference between the two conferences wasn't that stark to me. Memphis went 10-2 with a road loss to Navy that was far from a bad outing and a road loss to UTSA that wasn't ideal, but it's not a concern by any means. West Virginia went 6-6 and lost to every good team it played. Its best win was what, at Cincinnati?
Seeing this spread, I went right to check on the transfer portal to see what might have happened to Memphis. Not much, evidently. The Tigers, like the Mountaineers, will have their quarterback, top back, and top receiver available. Here's the thing, though. Seth Henigan is better than Garrett Greene. Mario Anderson is better than Jahiem White. Roc Taylor is better than Hudson Clement. Memphis is a better team than West Virginia. It ranks 37th in SP+, while West Virginia ranks 66th. The Mountaineers are being boosted by being 15th on special teams, but unless a team is particularly good, or particularly bad, at special teams, I consider that marginal. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 15th on offense. That pops for me. Oh, and the Mountaineers fired Neal Brown as head coach, leaving the program awaiting Rich Rodriguez's return.
If West Virginia wins the Frisco Bowl, it can be chalked up to, "Bowl games get weird sometimes." From an analysis perspective, and thus from a betting perspective, there's only one reasonable option for me.
Memphis vs. West Virginia Best Bet: Memphis -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Memphis vs. West Virginia Frisco Bowl Betting Predictions
I see nothing to worry about for the Tigers' offense here. Henigan completed 64.5 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns against only six picks. Anderson ran for 1,292 yards with 17 touchdowns. Brandon Thomas only carried the ball 55 times, but he averaged 6.0 yards per carry and scored eight times. I don't see Memphis having any issue with the West Virginia defense, and West Virginia is not really built to keep pace, especially with Brown axed. I mean, things haven't gone as poorly as they did for another school in the state, Marshall, which had to pull out of its bowl game due to a mass transfer exodus, but will West Virginia's players be up for this one? Oftentimes, bowl games will end up uncompetitive. I feel like the Frisco Bowl may be such a bowl game, with Memphis getting down to business early and West Virginia not being up to trying to create the illusion of a close contest.
