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Best Bets
Nic Claxton over 0.5 steals at Detroit (-205)
DraftKings, 1:42 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I'm not sure why DraftKings chose to juice this number so heavily instead of just making it O/U 1.5 STL, but it doesn't matter. Over the past month, the Pistons have the second-highest TOV%, and it's largely due to their tendency to give the ball to opposing centers, who are averaging 2.0 STL during this run. Claxton is a defensive-minded center with disruptive athleticism and length, so this is a great opportunity. The young big has recorded at least one steal in nine of the past 10 games. The Pistons are also on the second night of a back-to-back, which could lead to sloppiness.
DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points (-120) at Milwaukee
DraftKings, 1:50 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Frequent readers of the column know I love to target defenses that play drop coverage since it's predictable. The drop coverage's goal is to force mid-range jumpers, prevent corner threes and allow pick-and-pop threes to centers -- generally inconsistent shooters from deep. Of course, no one loves the mid-range more than DeRozan, who takes a staggering 70 percent of his shots from that spot. DeRozan is averaging 39 PPG against the Bucks this season (one OT game).
Nikola Vucevic over 1.5 threes (+120) at Milwaukee (+120)
DraftKings, 1:51 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Again, I love floor-spacing centers against the Bucks. Brook Lopez is rarely coming out of the lane to contest a three-pointer from his man. Vooch is hitting just 1.1 threes per game over the past month (37.2%), but in his three appearances against Milwaukee this season, he's taken 7.0 per game. Furthermore, this is the second night of a back-to-back for a Bucks team that hardly has to try anymore.
Tyus Jones over 1.5 steals at New Orleans (+160)
DraftKings, 1:56 PM CT
Alex Barutha: With Ja Morant doubtful, Jones should start at point guard -- a position that he's thrived in when given the chance. He's facing a Pelicans squad giving away the fifth-most turnovers in the past 30 days, but specifically, allowing the most steals to point guards during this stretch (2.3 STL). As a starter this season, Jones is averaging 1.7 steals, so I love getting significant plus money on this. New Orleans is also on the second night of a back-to-back, which could lead to sloppy play.
De'Aaron Fox under 2.5 turnovers (-140) at Dallas
DraftKings, 1:56 PM CT
Alex Barutha: One of Dallas' main flaws as a defense -- one of many, many flaws -- is that they put no pressure on opposing point guards. Dallas has forced the second-fewest turnovers from opposing PGs over the past month, and Fox knows how to take care of the basketball. During this stretch, he's averaging just 1.9 giveaways and has turned it over more than twice only once in the past 10 games.
Mitchell Robinson over 1.5 blocks (+110) at Indiana
DraftKings, 1:59 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Sticking with some specific positional weaknesses, this version of the Pacers throws up garbage at the rim all game long. Opposing centers are blocking 3.5 shots per game over the past month against Indiana -- second-most in the NBA. Robinson is more disciplined these days compared to his rookie year, but he's still a massive threat to send back shots. He has at least one block in 11 straight games (1.8 BLK) and has recorded multiple blocks in 28 of his 57 appearances.
