This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
ATL vs. MIL (-7.5), O/U: 226
Both teams are coming off hard-fought seven-game series. The Bucks looked down and out after two games against Brooklyn but were fortunate beneficiaries of injuries to James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Meanwhile, few even gave the Hawks a chance against the 76ers, but big performances from Trae Young, John Collins and Kevin Huerter, coupled with poor shooting from Philadelphia, helped Atlanta pull off a major upset. As far as tonight's showdown goes for DFS purposes, everyone will play Giannis Antetokounmpo, and most people will play for a Bucks win. Almost nobody will build lineups that would make sense in a Hawks blowout. It's difficult to be different on these postseason showdown slates. Using a player from Atlanta in the captain spot would be a good start.
Injuries to Monitor
Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Bogdanovic was troubled by knee soreness in the series against Philadelphia and will be a game-time decision tonight. It's unclear who would start in his place if he were to miss, but Danilo Gallinari and Cam Reddish would be in line for expanded roles.
Cam Reddish (Achilles): QUESTIONABLE
Reddish hasn't played since February, but the fact that he's listed as questionable is an encouraging sign. He was starting at shooting guard and seeing 30 minutes per game when healthy. If he does play, he'll likely be on a minutes limit, considering it's a lower-body injury that's kept him out.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400)
Giannis played 50 of a possible 53 minutes while putting up 40 points and 13 rebounds in the Game 7 win over the Nets. He's scored 60+ fantasy points in two of the last three games and comfortably projects as the highest scoring player on the slate tonight. It seems impossible to fade him, but one way to be different would be to avoid him in the captain spot, where he's sure to be popular.
Trae Young ($11,600)
Young is coming off his worst game of the postseason in Sunday's series-clinching win when he shot just 5-for-23 from the field and failed to reach 40 fantasy points for the first time in 12 games. Aside from that, he had a great series against the 76ers, who seemed to have no answer for him defensively no matter what they tried. Tonight's matchup against the Bucks will see Young square off with one of the best defenders in the league in Jrue Holiday. It could be a reason to consider fading, but when Young is shooting well, he's basically matchup proof. If the Hawks stay competitive tonight, he's very likely to be on the winner.
Expected Chalk
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400)
I normally don't highlight the most expensive player as chalk, but I'd expect Giannis to be rostered on 95% percent of lineups tonight. First, there aren't many places to spend up with Giannis and Trae Young being the only truly elite players on the slate. Second, there isn't one player in the cheap range who specifically stands out, and thus I don't expect any of the cheap value plays to be overly popular. That could change if Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) were to be ruled out. For instance, if Danilo Gallinari ($6,000) was in the starting lineup, I'd expect him to be relatively chalky.
Value Picks
Khris Middleton ($10,000)
Middleton was arguably the Bucks' best player in the series against Brooklyn. He's had five steals in back-to-back games while recording double-doubles in each. He's averaging 6+ assists in his last four as well. All of this has seen him top 40 DK points in five consecutive games, and he's put up 55+ in three of those. He'd be a good option in the captain spot too.
Jrue Holiday ($9,400)
Holiday struggled offensively in the Brooklyn series and only put up 40+ fantasy points in one of seven games. He's still playing 40 minutes per night, and this time he gets a matchup against Trae Young, who isn't at all known for his defense. I'd expect some bigger games from Holiday going forward.
Clint Capela ($8,600) and John Collins ($8,400)
Capela put up 30+ DK points in only three of seven games against the 76ers and never topped 40. His minutes were up and down as well. This is a different matchup against Milwaukee, and the Hawks need Capela on the floor to help contain Giannis. They will continue to rely on John Collins as well. He's coming off a great series against Philadelphia. He's put up four straight double-doubles and has hit 40 fantasy points in two of his last three.
Kevin Huerter ($7,200)
Huerter is arguably the single biggest reason that the Hawks were able to pull off the upset against the 76ers. He's seen 40+ minutes in consecutive games and eclipsed 40 DK points in each of them. He's already a good value option but would be an even better one if Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) doesn't play.
P.J. Tucker ($3,800) and Pat Connaughton ($2,200)
We usually don't think of Tucker as a player with upside, but that's what he's shown recently, putting up 25+ DK points in two of his last four games. It's a cheap salary for someone that's been seeing mid-30s minutes. It's possible that the minutes aren't as safe tonight, however, as the Bucks were using him to defend Kevin Durant. I prefer taking a chance on Connaughton. He's played at least 22 minutes off the bench in four consecutive games and has upside for a cheaper salary if he gets hot from three-point range.
