Nick Madrigal

A first-round pick by the crosstown White Sox back in 2018, Madrigal is still looking for a true breakout campaign in his third season with the Cubs. The infielder has the contact skills and speed to make an impact, though health has been his biggest challenge to this point in his career. Madrigal missed time in 2023 due to a hamstring injury, and he dealt with back and groin ailments a year earlier. As a result, he's played in only 151 total games at the MLB level the last two seasons. On a more positive note, the 92 games he played in last year represent a new career high. Madrigal also set a new career best by recording 270 at-bats. He batted .263 and chipped in two home runs along with 10 stolen bases in 12 attempts. Madrigal will be entering his age-27 season in 2024, and if he can stay on the field, he may be Chicago's primary third baseman. Veteran Patrick Wisdom is still around, and he offers plenty of pop, but Madrigal is the better pure hitter. He could be a sneaky fantasy option this year if the playing time is there.

It was another injury-riddled season for Madrigal in 2022. Back and groin ailments limited him to just 59 games. That figure actually represents the most for Madrigal across his three seasons at the MLB level, so he's never been able to fully showcase his abilities for an extended period of time. The talent is there, as the White Sox selected him fourth overall in 2018, and he batted above .300 during brief stints in the majors in 2020 and 2021. Last year was a step backward, as Madrigal only batted .249, but it's hard to come to too many conclusions until he gets in something close to a full season. Working in Madrigal's favor is the Cubs' timeline, as the team seems to be entering a rebuild. The second baseman is entering his age-26 season and is still looking to establish himself, so the playing time should be there. If Madrigal can stay healthy, he could be a breakout candidate, but there is plenty of risk here.

Madrigal has done nothing but display elite bat-to-ball skills since being promoted to the majors in 2020. He is tied with David Fletcher for the lowest swing-and-miss rate (4.1%) since the start of the 2020 season, but he also has just two more home runs than you, the reader, in 324 plate appearances at the big-league level. The fact he is coming off a major hamstring injury which required surgery to repair while also rehabbing during the lockout would seemingly put his running game at risk, leaving all of his value tied up in his batting average as a nine-hole hitter in Chicago. He may be an option should you roster batting average deadweights with power upside, but you have to have the right type of roster construction to carry this one-trick pony in 2022.

Madrigal was exactly as advertised in his MLB debut. He hit .340 with zero barrels and seven strikeouts (6.4 K%) in 109 PA. Those highest on Madrigal are hoping for a three-category stud, but he would need to lead off. Last year, he primarily hit ninth -- a trend that could continue this year with the addition of Adam Eaton. He can still be an elite source of batting average with 15-20 steals, but he would be a massive drag on the other three standard counting stats if he hits ninth. Most good hitters eventually grow into power, but Madrigal is an exception in more ways than one. His bat-to-ball ability is already the stuff of legend, but he rarely hits the ball hard (20.8 Hard%) or in the air (12.5 FB%). Projecting just five homers in his first full season would be aggressive, so roster construction needs to be factored in. He is recovering from October shoulder surgery and is questionable for Opening Day.

Madrigal, the No. 4 overall pick in 2018, has been exactly as advertised in pro ball, for better and for worse. His elite bat-to-ball skill has been on full display at every level (career 3.0 K%), as has plus speed (35-for-48 on SB attempts last year) and 20-grade power (four HR in 163 games). His lack of power is backed up by a 13.4 Hard%. He didn't get the benefit of the juiced ball at High-A and Double-A, but no qualified MLB hitter even logged a 20.0 Hard% last year. Sometimes players vastly outperform their power grades as prospects, but this is the rare case where that should not be seen as a potential outcome. That should be just fine, however, as Madrigal projects to hit at least .300 with 20-plus steals and 100-plus runs. As long as expectations for his peak seasons are kept in that range, he shouldn't disappoint. Look for him to take over at the keystone early this season.

It is extremely rare for right-handed hitting college second basemen to be drafted in the first round, but the White Sox believed in Madrigal's hit tool and defense enough to pop him with the No. 4 overall pick last year. He came as advertised, hitting .303 with just five strikeouts (compared to seven walks) in 173 PA across stops in the AZL, Sally League and Carolina League. That bat-to-ball ability is Willians Astudillo-esque, that is to say, almost unparalleled. However, almost 50% of his hits went to the opposite field and he failed to hit a home run -- only seven of his 47 hits went for extra bases (all doubles). While he lacks power, Madrigal is a plus runner, and given how often he will end up at first base, that speed should lead to 20-plus steals annually. He is capable of playing shortstop but should be a plus defender at second base. Madrigal will likely head to Double-A at the start of his age-22 season, and should be on the fast track to the majors.