Mark Leiter

Leiter re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal last February and secured a spot on the Opening Day roster with a strong spring. After spending much of the 2022 season in a multi-inning relief role, the 32-year-old locked down setup duties for Chicago and finished the season with 28 holds (T-5th in the league). Leiter rode the success of his splitter (.134 BA, 48.2% whiff percentage) to career-best ratios and a 28.6% strikeout rate, with 65 of his 77 total strikeouts coming on the pitch. He threw the splitter at a career-high 34% clip, which was +11.3% difference from the season prior. Leiter's secondary offerings aren't as effective, but he mixes five pitches to keep hitters guessing. The right-hander also tallied four saves to give the Cubs another option to turn to when closing out games. Leiter, who is arbitration eligible for the first time, figures to reprise his setup role for the Cubs after he was recently tendered a contract for 2024.

After he posted some decent peripherals in 2017, a forearm strain and poor performance limited Leiter to just 23.1 innings last season. The 27-year-old spent time with both Philadelphia and Toronto but failed to impress for either organization, finishing with an ugly 7.71 ERA. His numbers fell across the board, with his strikeout rate falling to 17.9% while his walk rate rose to 9.8%. He surrendered a home run on a full 25% of opposing hitters' flyballs. That number -- along with his .350 BABIP and 53.6% strand rate -- can be taken as a sign of bad luck, but even with some positive regression, Leiter looks like a low-leverage reliever at best. The Blue Jays outrighted him off the 40-man roster in November. He could eventually work his way into a long-relief role this season, but his odds of producing fantasy-relevant numbers are slim.

Leiter started 11 games and appeared in another 16 out of the bullpen in his rookie season. He put up a somewhat poor 4.96 ERA in his 90.2 innings, though the underlying numbers suggest that he should be a roughly league-average pitcher going forward. His 8.3 K/9 exactly matched the league average, while his 3.1 BB/9 and 48.9 percent groundball rate were both slightly above average. His poor ERA looks to be mostly a result of an unlucky HR/FB rate, as 21.7 percent of the flyballs he gave up left the park. If that number falls back, as it should, Leiter could put up an ERA closer to what his xFIP said it should have been last year (4.19), making him a viable but low-ceiling back-end starter. The Phillies have a number of young starters with similar track records, but Leiter has a better shot than most to provide acceptable production if given the opportunity.